Posted on 09/01/2020 5:57:01 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
Biden 49, Trump 46
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
Figure we do better with the "Other's" and "Don't Know's", the margin narrows to 2 points, and we win the same way we won last time.
Also, figure net favorable news through the election regarding the economy, COVID and violence, and we win rather easily.
The weighting scheme in this poll is more fair than other pollsters. In particular, it takes level of education into account. As a result, the poll is merely a D+1 poll, in keeping with recent history.
Other poll-takers weigh their samples on fewer variables and not on education, and wind up with D+5 or even more heavy skews to the dark side.
Fair polls indicate this race is tight, with hints of strength for our side. If we do our job and Get Out the Vote, we win.
Cue the orchestra, maestro
Vincerò Vincerò
The trend is Trump’s friend!!
we still have the debates...
win/win
If they happen Trump crushes it.
If they don’t, Biden’s weakness is confirmed.
The debates, if they actually occur, could swing the polling towards Trump 2-4 points. However, I’m not so confident the debates will help Trump. The corrupt moderators will do their best to protect Biden, who will have a very low bar set for him.
Ha, ha... it is always the Dem leading by large margins early (suppression polls), then as it gets closer to the election they try and save credibility by narrowing the gap (the true story). Trump is leading.
That’s pretty much the same as the final result in ‘16 so that could be seen as a good sign.Of course we all know that the nationwide figure means very little. The key figures will come from FL,PA,MI and maybe one or two others.
I think there’s a lot of Trump voters out there that just want to stay under the radar until they cast their Trump vote. Too much BLM/Antifa/Liberal BS to put up with advertising your support. The polls will look skewed against Trump.
I do not do polls. I keep getting calls and just hang up. Answer one poll and get dozen s of push poll calls. I do not need the harassment form answering a poll. They are not accurate any way, John Hanoi Kerry won over Bush, Hillary is our president. Polls lie. Polls lie.
I don’t believe it.
It’s been known since the 2016 election the polls are worthless. And this time around even the dems know it. All they are good for is MSM and dem/commie propaganda.
The best indicator, as with the last election, is voter enthusiasm. And this time around, as with the last, Trump will win.
Even Michael Moore is calling for Trump landslide!!
My guess is that he's not leading *nationwide* but I'll wager that he's leading in the swing states that Osama Obama carried in '12 but the President carried in '16.
Methodology& Sample Profile
This study was conducted by AtlasIntel, an independent research & data intelligence firm. 4210random interviews of US adults were conducted online between August 24 and August 30 2020.
The sample was post-stratified with propensity scores to match the profile of registered voters on the following variables: gender, region, age group, education,family income, and race. Results are reported for likelyvoters.
The margin of error for likely voters is +/-2% at the 95% confidence level. Some percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
More information about AtlasIntelcan be obtained by visiting www.atlasintel.org.
No competent scientist would believe any sort of survey where there is so obvious a bias in the data sampling and collection process.
online Poll.............................About as scientific as going online to do a poll.................
When you click on the actual poll results you see:
Trump gets 28% of the Black vote and 41% of the Hispanic vote!
Dems are dreaming if they think they can win with those numbers! Hispanics were underpolled according to the numbers and only 2% are undecided???
LANDSLIDE
And as for Tub Of Lard's comment...that's a head fake meant to a) get the Rats to work harder and b) to get us to be complacent. Nothing more,nothing less.
See Post #18
“Ha, ha... it is always the Dem leading by large margins early (suppression polls), then as it gets closer to the election they try and save credibility by narrowing the gap (the true story). Trump is leading.”
What you say is true but this time they are being forced to narrow the gap much earlier than they did in 2016 when polls had her way up until a couple of weeks before the election.
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