COVID-19 Update - 08/31/20

As of 08/30/2020 23:15 PDST United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Section: 01 Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02 the United States Situation
Section: 03 the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04 the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05 the Mortality Report
Section: 06 Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07 the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08 the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09 the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10 the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11 Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12 Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13 Links to Other Resources

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities dropped by 752 cases from the previous day, to come in at 371
on Sunday. That was a 13.72% decrease from the same day the week before.

New Cases fell by 8,140 from the day before, to come in at 34,250 Sunday.
That was an 4.68% increase from the same day the week before.

Fatalities dropped by 1,525 cases from the previous day, to come in at 3,875
on Sudnay. That was a 1.33% decrease from the same day last week.

New Cases fell off by 30,160 from the day before, to come in at 223,025
on Sunday. That was an 9.42% increase from the same day the week before.

The declared New Case level dropped by 8,140 cases Sunday, which left the
daily total at 34,250 cases.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Our slices of the Global Pie reverted to a mixed bag on Sunday. It had been
improving for both categories for several days.

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Back in early June, I was hoping we were finally seeing the light. Welllll...
not exactly. Look where we've gone from there. Now the red seven-day averaging
line is beginning to resemble the same flattening from that June period. I hope
that matures with the U. S. making a good go at defeating this disease.

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing dropped by a little over 70,000 tests Sunday to come in at 728,027,
down from 799,591 the day before.

The fourteen day positive results fell off to 5.631%. The 3 day average
dropped to 5.277%. The sigle day fell lower to 4.704%

All three lines have come close together on the right there. WE continue
to do better, although the 14 day did revert to a flattening status.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

New Case declarations seem to be tapering off at a slightly increasing rate.
I will say there is a hint of a modification upward, but with lower numbers,
I expect that to revert to a lean toward flattening perhaps even tomorrow.

What I'm noticing that I'm not so glad to see, is a slight drop off in
trajectory of the Recoveries and Resolved Cases. It's not much, but it's
still there. We want to see those ever rising.

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

California had the most new Cases on Sunday, but Texas took the top spot on
Fatalities. That figure of 67 was a very low number to take the top spot
with.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose higher Sunday, but with an amount that we less than the
normal amount. That is good.

The number here fell off by around 22,000 yesterday. This was considerably
lower than recent days.

That's a pretty textbook rise and fall over the last eight days on the Global
Scene. Look how nice and symetrical they look. Our numbers came in at
34,250. That blue column on the right looks much much better than weeks back.

We've seen some areas looking average, and then not so good. Our area has
looked quite good, and I expect it to look even better shortly.

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

The two charts above have shown movement toward flattening, but there has
been some upside mixed in. We are seeing more frequent days where the Active
Cases decline.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

To be honest, it looks like all these nations are showing an inclination to
move up.

Spain's numbers have been so bad, I double check them each day. It's just
heading about as vertically as it can. The last day or see looks flat there
but it looks like that because they did not report out any new number on
Sunday. I believe they have done that before, perhaps as often as each week.
it has slipped my observation.

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

In recent days Sweden has edged up a little. It's not terrible, but it
isn't optimal either. Note that Sweeden took around a 3,100 clearical
correction on it's case numbers on 08/27th. Then it did not report new
numbers out on Sunday. Looks a little weird, but it's as it should be.

The Nethherlands New Cases have taken a decided turn for the worse, but the
rate has become pretty steady and doesn't seem to be getting worse. If
anything, there may be a very small improvement a week or so ago.

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

India took the top spot in both areas comfortably, far surpassing other nations
in the mix.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

This chart reveals a flattening of Active Case growth. There have been some
drops in the numbers of Active Cases recently.

Well globally we're at 72.975% Resolved Cases now. I'm glad to see that, and
wonder how much higher that will go in the short term.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Active Cases rose but the rise was back to a baby steps situaiton. Active
Cases grow by a much larger number generally.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Fatalities took a large dip in all sectors on Sunday. Even for one day, it's
nice to see numbers like this.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

That 371 Fatalities was lower for the fifth day in a row, and was the the lowest
number of Fatalities since 07/05 when we had 251.

Our Fatalities were 59 less than the same day last week. That right leg there
compares nicely to the right leg from the same day last week.

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

We had looked pretty good recently, but his was not a good day. It's not as
as as come previous days a few weeks out, but it's just a not strong in either categore there.

Yes I did add in a new column here. Now showing are percentage figures that
reveal the percentage of the 215 nations that have the figure to the right OR
MORE.

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

We went over two weeks with out any before that, so there is a bit more
upward strength to the numbers right now. We'll see how stong that is
over the next five days. Cross your fingers.

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

We fell from 17th to 18th place here on Sunday. Recent levels have ranged
from 17 to 19 for about a month or more.

LINK Johns Hopkins University
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

LINK US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK CDC National Center for Health Services
Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK R_t COVID-19
Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

meanwhile in Australia:

1 Sept: news.com.au: Victorian doctors pen desperate letter to Dan Andrews about controversial State of Emergency Bill
Thirteen top Victorian doctors have united to slam Dan Andrews’ lockdown strategy, saying it has “caused unprecedented negative outcomes”.
by Anthony Piovesan
Senior doctors across Melbourne are urging politicians not to support a state of emergency extension, saying the move threatens to “destroy” the health and wellbeing of fed-up Victorians...
They say it is “vital” stage four restrictions are lifted on September 13, believe “an alternative medical response” is required and highlight key data they think is being “excluded”...

“When I see my patients and ask them how they’re coping, the number one response is the sadness at not being able to see their grandchildren for three, four or five months and the ones who live on their own are extremely isolated,” he said.
“The mood of the population has changed dramatically in the past two weeks – there seems to be one half that is getting angrier and angrier and the other half which has just lost all hope – these policies are effecting the general psyche of the community...
“We now know that whilst COVID-19 is highly contagious, it is of limited virulence.”...

“We are told that since March 2020, 565 Victorian patients have died either with or from the virus (31st August numbers). This compares with annual Victorian deaths of approximately 10,000 patients with cardiovascular disease and 11,000 with cancer...
“Accordingly, the COVID-19 deaths are a relatively small proportion of the 114 deaths per day that are normally seen in Victoria. In comparison, since the start of March COVID-19 has been associated with 3 of the 114 deaths per day.
“Most of the 565 deaths have occurred in nursing homes which according to doctors currently working in this environment have described causal factors related not only to the virus but to other care related issues, including isolation, loneliness, and related diminished nutritional intake.”...

The doctors go on to write about how Victoria has seen 541 fewer flu deaths this July than last year.
“In Australia last year, 2019, in the month of July alone we had 71,000 new laboratory-confirmed cases. And a total of 313,000 laboratory confirmed cases of influenza for the year.
“This is only a fraction of the actual total cases of influenza, as many cases go untested. In August 2017 we had 99,000 new laboratory confirmed cases of Influenza and a total of over 250,000 cases for the year...

The state recorded 70 new infections overnight, and five more deaths.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/victorian-doctors-pen-desperate-letter-to-dan-andrews-about-controversial-state-of-emergency-bill/news-story/477352005ec852b6dd4b0e8f31f97441

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