Control of the population is of little concern to the Chinese government, as evidenced by government actions in Wuhan this last winter.
Chinese manufacturing has already somewhat been hit by the covid19 virus.
The Chinese are unable to feed their massive population and have depended on international grain imports to feed the masses.
Despite the trade and political tensions between the U.S. and China, they will be even more dependent on grain imports,
and the news, even this morning, is that China purchases of grain as a result of the trade negotiations is still down from previously agreed levels.
Let us not forget, that WWWII was fought because Japan needed more resources for its population; similar scenario, no ?
I think CV-19 has hit China more on the demand side than the supply side. There have been fewer than 5000 deaths in China (who knows the accuracy), but part of that was because China virtually shut down travel into and out of Wuhan very early in the breakout. However, in an attempt to hide the problem, they continued to let foreign air travel into and out of Wuhan. That, to me, was the unforgivable action. I don’t know what will happen if the dam breaks, but for everyone in the world, I hope it doesn’t happen.
Japan taking over Korea and Manchuria was at least ostensibly because of the rise in population during the Meiji/Taisho eras, from 30 to 60 million--and that occurred because Japan was influenced by a combination of Christianity and industrialization to allow the population to rise. The attempt to take over China was an ego thing; the Japanese didn't need any of that area for their population. The burgeoning military needed oil which they could only get by invading the East Indies, and that was the reason for Pearl Harbor, Wake, and the Philippines, to convince the US not to intervene. That didn't work, of course.
Japan, like most colonialists, didn't know when to quit. The same thing might be true of China, or might not.
China is able to feed its population. It is the world’s leading producer of wheat, rice, soybeans, pork, fish, vegetables and a lot of other stuff. Calories are not a problem. The problem is upgrading the diet of the Chinese middle and working classes to provide much higher levels of high quality animal proteins. The Chinese like to eat meat as much as we do, and with China’s dramatic economic progress in recent decades, a billion-plus Chinese have gotten the idea that their diet should continue to improve. They want more meat and dairy products, which are grain intensive to produce. That’s what drives Chinese import demand. Austerity would mean backing Chinese consumers down to much lower levels of meat consumption. In a short term emergency, that would be politically sustainable. Long term, it would make a lot of people angry. That would be dangerous for a regime whose legitimacy rests on improving the standard of living.
Very similar situation.
They have been building freezer warehouses to store food at their ports like crazy. Even buying up meat processing plants here in America where 100% of the product gets shipped back home.
If the dam fails, it will wipe out considerable cropland. In which case, it would be good to make sure your pantry and freezer are full.