Posted on 08/08/2020 4:20:48 PM PDT by Kevin in California
Let’s start by saying some of “the polls” don’t have a great track record as a predictor of who would become President of the United States in 2016. One of the biggest problems was how information from polls was sometimes cherrypicked and reported on the news. We’ve generally learned a lesson: Consume polls with a grain of salt.
That includes the information in this post.
With that in mind, it’s still interesting to look at some figures tracked by RealClearPolitics.
President Trump appears to lag in most every category and battleground state. But there’s a recent shift in trending. Joe Biden is now behind where Hillary Clinton scored on two key measures— and Clinton, as we know, lost.
First: The national polling average.
Biden is up 6.4 points over Trump in the national polling average on August 8— a healthy lead.
But Clinton was besting Trump by a bigger margin, 7.4 points, on August 8, 2016.
That puts Trump ahead of his place in 2016 by one percentage point, and on the positive side of his 2016 comparison for the first time since May 17.
In Vermont, I’m seeing more Trump signs, flags, and bumper stickers than Biden signs and bumper stickers. In ‘16 I saw almost no Trump anything and very few Hillary signs.
Vermont is the most liberal state in the union. I believe he will surpass the percentage (31%) and the number (95,369) of votes he received in ‘16. These are good omens.
The Democrat media is trying to convince you it is hopeless. In fact, Dementia Joe is hopeless and has already reached his high water mark.
Biden also needs to fear the menace of events. The release of the Durham report and a round of indictments will help put the misconduct of the Obama administration on display. Covid therapeutics and vaccines and employment and economic recovery will progress rapidly in the coming months. And debates with Trump will for Biden prove to be like trying to tap dance through a minefield.
I’m voting for Kanye. /sarc
I'd argue that. Both the people's republic of Maryland and Californistan (and maybe Taxachusetts) are more liberal than Vermont.
I would like to know why so many people put faith in the Real Clear Politics, Poll of Polls. If a couple of polls are heavily skewed by over-polling Democrats, then the average is skewed. If more than half of the polls over-poll Democrats, then the concept of an average is useless.
Even latinos I talk to here in Southern California seem to believe he'll win.
Like I am going to tell some random caller claiming to do a poll that I am voting Trump so they know which house to burn down. Wait, I hang up on random callers before they can tell me their business.
Polls are designed and intended to Shape opinion, not reflect it.
I can tell you in the eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh, there are Trump signs everywhere. There also tons of American flags. I would say many of them are also Trumo supporters who don’t want to be vandalized. I have seen one Biden sign.
And I’ll guarantee there are more “Shy Trump Voters” than last time.
Oh, I usually tell the truth about how I’ll vote.......
I just mess with their demographics. I’m usually a black female government employee, making in excess of 100k a year. And a die hard Trump supporter.
We’re a small demographic, but we have a very powerful lobby.
48 stares.
All I see are in Southern Jersey trumps science Trump flags trump everything I’ve seen one yes one Biden sign
I fed several dozen Hispanic employees in Northern California is a contractor and every single one of them has been a Republican I remember distinctly having arguments over cruise versus Trump in the primary during 15
I’m hearing from those who despised President Trump leading up to the 2016 election. I got to see Trump Pinatas right across the street from my residence.
Some eyes have been opened.
Hillary,
The Best President, NEVER!
Trump-Biden debates,,,
I Laugh at that.
Biden will need a
Drool cup !
And a rule that gives him the option for a mercy tap out.
Don’t forget how many dangerous convicts are being released by Democrats in blue states, counties and cities. You all, at least in CA, had better put new dead-bolts on both you front and back doors. (especially your back doors (if you know what I mean))
I remember that- -I was SO dispirited!
I also vividly recall watching John Chancellor (also dispiritedly) telling me at 7:30 local time that Ronald Reagan was going to win the election by a “substantial margin.”
(Another fond memory from 1980-the unbeatable Soviet hockey team was going to cruise to the Olympic gold medal.)
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