Posted on 07/17/2020 7:12:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Without fail, the media seems intent on making America out to be the lone failure in the world in the battle against the coronavirus.
Many media outlets have described the United States as “losing the war” against the coronavirus because of the number of cases keeps going up. Axios, for example created a chart show that if all coronavirus patients (confirmed cases) were a city, it would be the third-largest city in the country. The recent trend of the media to focus on the total number of cases seems to be a result of the recent spike cases that failed to produce a similar spike in deaths. So far, we’ve only just seen a small bump in fatalities, and there is evidence that data dumps of backlogged data could be inflating those numbers.
p>Nevertheless, because we’ve witnessed a spike in cases and there have roughly 3.5 million cases in the United States, that’s the number the media seems to be gravitating to. Why? Because when you look at the number of cases or the number deaths individually and compare them to other countries, the USA seems be the hardest hit…
…that is until you account for population or look at the ratio of deaths per confirmed cases. I’ve previously examined how the United States measures up on cases and deaths per capita, so we know why the media doesn’t report on that, but the media the media also doesn’t want to report about case fatality rate (CFR). And the following graphs will show you why.
I decided to look at the case fatality rate of the United States and compare it to select European countries. We often hear about how enlightened Europe is compared to the United States, with their progressive politics and various version of universal health care.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
I think what I’ve read is that the worst cases (meaning hospitalized and in ICU) may last as much as a month, but usually a week or two. However, I’m not a health professional, but there are many here on FR. I’m sure one of the ones who are on the front line can tell you what their experience is much better.
These dashboards rarely show the number of recoveries, and when they do, I think they are incomplete. They may only be counting hospitalized recoveries for all I can tell.
For real? Wow, you have a link?
The disease spreads. That means that it goes from one place to another. When it hits an area with no immunity, the numbers goes crazy for a couple of weeks, and then it starts to slow down.
It is not going to show up everywhere, all at one time. The media will lead you to believe that. They are stupid or ignorant. Since we are so far into this, they must be stupid.
Much like NYC went through a peak, and then a decline—so won’t the rest of the country and the world.
And really, tracking raw death numbers—while interesting and a valid exercise—without details about the general population they are next to meaningless.
If the death population is still skewing “very old” the rest of the country has little to worry about with basic, age old, rememdies: Wash your damn hands. Stay away from sick people.
I finally got the June numbers from our County clerk’s office
total deaths by month actually started getting elevated in September of 2019 but they just
fell 24.4% from the May numbers so although elevated over last June and the ten year average
I think we’ve reached Peak virus and are now dropping off the cliff.
Now we just let the law of averages take it from here.
My guess is the numbers wash over the next 6 to 12 months.
7
Also if you have a coughing problem, you shouldn’t be hanging around in public.
Link?
Sure there’s a link.......somebody got it on Facebook, posted it and 8 people shared it, then 39 people read it and shared it and now it has become a fact.
Thanks to Ed the small engine mechanic who thunk it all up on his lunch hour.
There’s your “Link”........
Great graphs, thanks for posting.
It’s on Twitch.com
This is a complicated topic, much more complex than liberals imagine it to be.
As with some other topics, the data itself can not always be accepted at face value. Then there is the analysis of the data. For the sake of discussion, I will accept the data (as the author does) at face value.
There have been a few posts on “excess deaths,” that is more deaths than usual. The idea here is two fold as I see it.
People die in great number every month in the US. So a discussion of excess deaths, relative to normal, can provide perspective.
Excess deaths bypasses issues of misattribution of deaths. For example if you lump the deaths of everyone who had cancer and covid-19 into the covid-19 pot, the covid-19 numbers would swell while the cancer deaths would fall. “Excess deaths” gives a better measure.
The CDC has charts on excess deaths:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
(I think I got this like from someone at FR).
It takes a while to navigate. I chose their sixth dashboard “weekly number of deaths by age.” I’ve looked up the US, NY and Florida.
United States. Excess deaths have been a problem this year for those 45 years of age and up. It peaked at month 15 or so, then dropped. WE NO LONGER HAVE EXCESS DEATHS IN ANY AGE GROUP.
New York (also New York city, New Jersey) tell the same story as the US.
Florida. Florida’s number are very muted by comparison. THERE HAVE BEEN VERY FEW EXCESS DEATHS IN THE STATE OF FLORIDA FOR ANY AGE GROUP AT ANY TIME THIS YEAR.
For another look, I went to their percentage dashboard. For some reason, they introduce “predicted”. I’m not sure what they mean in this context. Also, color coded bars are not my favorite display. Again, we are talking about excess deaths. For what it’s worth:
The US row made it to the 26%-50% color for three weeks. About 36% (hover your mouse over the bar) for those weeks.
New York went above 100% (typically 125%) for two weeks.
Florida has never had a week with excess deaths above 10%.
“The fact that the US has a soaring number of infections is the reason our case fatality rate now appears low.”
Some analysts have lagged cases by two or three weeks relative to deaths. Makes some sense. First you catch it; later you die. The catch then die duration is not the same for everyone, but there will always be a lag.
I think introducing a lag is a good idea. Also, you need state by state views, as the experience differs greatly between one state and another.
Swedish experience is in the middle of the pack, despite no lockdown.
It would be nice to add some HCQ friendly countries to the mix.
Amazing...
bump 4 l8r
This may be a dumb question that may already have been answered repeatedly, but why do so many states not report ANY recoveries on the John Hopkins site?
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
has California, Illinois, and Florida among the states reporting NO recoveries.
The percentages of recoveries among the other states are also very odd. Examples:
New York: 32,452 deaths as of today, with 71,867 recoveries, or about one to two.
Pennsylvania: 7,004 deaths and 74,818 recoveries, or about one to ten.
Here in Washington state generally 9,000 to 12,000 per day are tested. The positives per day are about 1,000 or less.
Last week in the state of Washington 27 people died. That is for the week of July 9 to July 16, 27 total deaths.
On one day they added 25 deaths but then those all came alive again so they were subtracted from the total.
just in!
Life is a 100% fatal sexually transmitted disease!
SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN! (Until Biden is elected, I mean)
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