Posted on 07/12/2020 10:06:14 AM PDT by robowombat
COVID-19 surge pushes US toward deadly cliff BY REID WILSON - 07/12/20 06:00 AM EDT
The coronavirus is spreading at ever-faster rates in a broad array of states, putting the U.S. on the precipice of an explosion of illness that threatens to overwhelm the nation's health care system.
The painful economic lockdowns imposed in March gave the country time to flatten the epidemiological curve and contain the virus. But that window of opportunity, which came at great economic cost, is quickly slamming shut. Health experts say all signs point to a deadly summer and fall unless government leaders implement a much more robust national strategy.
The breadth of the spread is staggering. Forty-three states have seen the number of cases confirmed on an average day increase in the last two weeks. The number of patients in hospitals has risen over the same period in 29 states. More than 80 percent of intensive care beds are occupied in Alabama, Arizona and Georgia.
The same models that predicted surges in Phoenix, Houston and Miami now show a new and broader round of cities as the likely next epicenters. The number of confirmed cases is likely to rise substantially in places like Atlanta, Kansas City, Mo., Tulsa, Okla., and Greenville, S.C.
The virus also appears to be traveling north along the I-95 corridor. Cities like Philadelphia and Baltimore, which struggled through earlier peaks of viral transmission, are now seeing early signs of a second wave. Transmissions even appear to be rising in New York City.
On the other side of the country, outbreaks in California have grown to unprecedented proportions. The Golden State is now averaging more than 7,900 new cases a day, substantially more than its seven-day average just two weeks ago.
Public health experts warn that the U.S. has only a fleeting window in which to wrestle the virus back under some form of control. Without a stronger national response, including restrictions on large gatherings and requirements that people wear masks in public, the risk of a second peak could bring new lockdowns and more economic harm, derail the beginning of the new school year and even overwhelm local health systems.
"Our projections show that without immediate actions to significantly reduce travel and social distancing nationwide, this virus will not only threaten our ability to reopen schools in the coming weeks, but our capacity to care for the sickest individuals," said David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia whose models forecast higher case counts.
More than 3.1 million Americans have tested positive for the virus, though the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that as many as 25 million people in the U.S. may have contracted it. More than 133,000 people have died, almost twice as many victims as in Brazil, the second-hardest hit country.
Cities that successfully avoided early explosions of cases are now in the crosshairs after the loosening of restrictions in some states and regions that helped avoid what studies have suggested would have been tens of millions of infections.
"I would be lying if I didn't say I was concerned," Kansas City, Mo., Mayor Quintin Lucas said in an interview. "We have looked at the trends out of Texas, Arizona and Florida. Those states kind of reflect the political choices that were made statewide in Missouri, and that does give us concern."
The Kansas City metropolitan area has confirmed more than 10,000 coronavirus cases. The PolicyLab model shows Jackson County, Mo., is likely to experience more than 200 new cases every day by the beginning of August.
Rubin warned that smaller cities are likely to experience significant outbreaks in the coming weeks, potentially straining health systems that are not as prepared to handle a high volume of patients in need of intensive care. College towns like South Bend, Ind., and Tuscaloosa, Ala., are beginning to see case counts rise even with most students gone.
"We're starting to see a mild uptick," said James Mueller, South Bend's mayor. "We're in a much better position now than we were for the first increase or the first peak."
At other levels of government, some who have sought to downplay the severity of the American outbreak have pointed to an increasing number of tests being conducted across the country, which they say will naturally lead to identification of those who have only minor symptoms or asymptomatic cases. But the number of cases is rising faster than would be accounted for by the increase in testing; the share of tests coming back positive is rising in 38 states.
More than a quarter of tests conducted in Arizona are coming back positive, according to state data. More than 15 percent of tests are coming back positive in Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas.
Governors in 23 states have ordered residents to wear masks in public, though President Trump has refused to order a nationwide mask mandate. Trump has instead focused on reopening the economy, insisting that schools operate as normal in the months before he faces voters in November.
Louisiana governor announces mask mandate amid COVID-19 surge Los Angeles County orders closure of garment manufacturer after 300... But public health experts argue action is needed now to avoid a second peak of tsunami-like proportions.
"We never gave communities a real chance at success as we lacked a national strategy around masking and limiting gathering sizes to act as a buffer as places reopened," Rubin and his colleagues Gregory Tasian and Jing Huang wrote.
"So, do we admit that we’ve failed and try to salvage the reopening of our schools in fall by quickly enacting a national approach to pause all reopenings and try to get our country back onto stable footing?” he asked. “It may not be what people want to hear, but the situation is that dire that we need to consider this."
650 deaths yesterday = 13-14 deaths per state.
Even if it is spreading...it has a 99% recovery rate.
PUSHES!
DEADLY CLIFF!
Yep. If it is that bad, where are the hospital ships? Where are the field hospitals being set up? No where. Which means the system can handle the surge, which means the surge is not a surge.
STRUGGLED!
UNPRECDENTED!
FLEETING WINDOW!
WRESTLE!
DERAIL!
How many ICU beds are occupied in other states? How many ICU beds are normally occupied? How many ICU beds are occupied by strictly-covid patients? Kinda weird how they left that out.
India with a billion more people, no social distancing and poor hygiene has just over 28,000 deaths. I wonder why.
The only thing that can save us is a Biden presidency.
This might explain the lack of Covid deaths in India:
Crock of crap.
Hell, if you get tested they say your positive.
Don’t even have to be tested. I read an article where 2 people went to get tested, filled out the forms, and left after waiting 2 hours without getting tested.
They were notified they were positive.
Lies.
I know what herd immunity is.
I asked you about human coronaviruses, and why you believe herd immunity is possible with this group of viruses.
heres the funny part.
cases are exploding. and they tell us our chance is closing. and to stopbthe spread, we do two things.
first ban large gatherings. like protests.
and wear masks. which were banned when we stopped the soread the first time.
if they are right, we wasted a lot of time and hurt a lot of people for no reason.
I read the other day that 70% occupancy is typical for ICUs under normal circumstances. Hospitals try to keep them mostly occupied but with some buffer for surges. In my AL county, ICU occupancy has been rising and is currently at 90%. Last week our local officials, who are politically very conservative, mandated the use of masks in public. It’s technically a misdemeanor not to comply but they’ve hinted strongly that it will not be enforced. So far compliance seems to be near 100%. I don’t like the idea of masks and doubt they do much beyond impeding the spray from a sneeze or cough to some degree, but I figure that’s better than nothing.
“Not shutting down again”
Nobody, including you, knows what is going to happen in a month.
It’s a coin shortage and not a paper cash shortage. Everyone is using cards and coins are not circulating.
Yeah, that does seem to be kind of important to know.
When I was a resident, our ICU was probably always at 80% occupancy.
We were moving people in and out all the time.
If a hospital has an ICU, it would be pretty stupid to pay for all of that space/staffing and *only* use say 50% of the beds.
"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that as many as 25 million people in the U.S. may have contracted it. More than 133,000 people have died, almost twice as many victims as in Brazil, the second-hardest hit country."
Do the math.
25 million people may have had it, yet 133,000 have died from it.
That's a mortality rate of 0.00532.
Using the CDC's own numbers, you realize just how much bull$hit has been spread about Covid.
Saw that at a local (CA) Safeway the other day. Sign at Customer Service said they were not giving out coins (usually you can exchange paper money for coins e.g. quarters).
“You have to measure today’s deaths against cases from 2-3 weeks ago, since it takes 2-3 weeks to die from COVID after once being infected.”
No.
1. You cannot trust the reporting date of any case as the date the case really started. There is too often a difference in time between the date a case is reflected as a “new” case and when it actually was a new case. The same goes for deaths. So, current numbers, as best as they are, are a good enough stand in for measuring death rates per numbers of cases.
2. You are wrong about how long a case lasts before death if death does occur. There is no set time, it varies from patient to patient. A neighbor of mine behind my house lost her husband to the virus on Thursday. He entered the hospital on May 19th. A woman in the news recently died within a week of entering the hospital. It can be days, it can be weeks, and even months - depending on the patient.
3. So, no, measuring deaths today against reported number of cases two weeks ago has no built in accuracy to it.
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