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House Democrat warns about 'inaccurate' polls: Trump voters 'fundamentally undercounted'
The Hill ^ | July 10 | J. EDWARD MORENO

Posted on 07/10/2020 7:31:08 PM PDT by RandFan

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”

“I don’t believe it,” Slotkin told Politico Magazine when asked about recent polls showing Biden performing well in key swing states, such as Michigan. FiveThirtyEight currently has Biden nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in Slotkin’s state of Michigan.

The former CIA analyst said there are too many variables at play for a poll to accurately reflect what will happen in November.

“Listen, if anyone tells me they can accurately predict what major events are coming in the remainder of 2020, I’ll give them a thousand dollars,” Slotkin said. “I mean, this has been the year of black swans. … I don’t for one minute think this [presidential] race is safe in anyone’s column. I’ve been literally begging people to ignore those polls. They are a snapshot in time. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next.”

Slotkin, who was part of a wave of Democrats who won races in 2018, is considered one of the more vulnerable Democrats facing reelection this November. She was one of several swing district Democrats to face scrutiny from Republicans in her district over the House's impeachment vote.

Slotkins said when she hired a pollster in 2018, she used a tactic she learned while working at the Pentagon to probe them on why they didn’t accurately predict the results of the 2016 election.

“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” Slotkin said of Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based polling firm.

Surveys often count people they determine are “likely voters,” but Slotkin learned that a person who tells a pollster that they don’t have plans to vote but may ultimately do so “were fundamentally undercounted.”

“I believe that same thing is happening right now,” Slotkin said.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: biden; elissaslotkin; gop; michigan; trump
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To: Steely Tom

Yup. Caddell broke it to Carter on Air Force One the day before the election that he was going to lose. That did not come out until a week later, but the NY Times reported that at Carter’s last campaign appearance in Plains, Georgia, he was unaccountably teary and emotional instead of his usual steely and smiling self. Reading that on election day I felt certain that Reagan was going to win.


41 posted on 07/10/2020 8:48:53 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: Rockingham
Reading that on election day I felt certain that Reagan was going to win.

Kind of like when we learned on the Friday before election day 2016 that Hillary's campaign had canceled the fireworks show that was going to be shot off across the Hudson from the Javits center when she got electified.

42 posted on 07/10/2020 9:07:10 PM PDT by Steely Tom ([Seth Rich] == [the Democrats' John Dean])
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To: RandFan

They forgot about our pets too.


43 posted on 07/10/2020 9:09:33 PM PDT by funfan
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To: RandFan

The fake polls have two goals:
1. Manage voter enthusiasm.
2. Cover story for the epic cheating next November.


44 posted on 07/10/2020 9:21:44 PM PDT by UnwashedPeasant (Trump is solving the world's problems only to distract us from Russia.)
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To: Steely Tom

I think that the fireworks were cancelled because they could not get the necessary permits. Hillary still thought that she was going to win on election night. Supposedly, she was drunk and tried to choke Robbie Mook when the returns went against her.


45 posted on 07/10/2020 9:22:23 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: HighSierra5

Funny some Republicans said the same thing


46 posted on 07/10/2020 10:09:11 PM PDT by italianquaker
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To: Rockingham

Nothing was mentioned at the time about her campaign being unable to get permits...not that a potential Democrat and first female president could possibly have trouble getting a Democrat run city to grant any permit she could possibly want or need.

Her campaign people knew darn well she was going to lose and cancelled it. Whether she knew is questionable. She probably knew it but just wasn’t able to accept the reality of it.


47 posted on 07/10/2020 10:09:34 PM PDT by piasa (Attitude adjustments offered here free of charge.)
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To: piasa
The problem was that fireworks could not be set off to celebrate Hillary's victory until far into the AM hours, which would wake up and antagonize most of the residents of Manhattan and the nearby boroughs. The permits allowed an early evening fireworks show, not an AM hours.
48 posted on 07/10/2020 10:46:24 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: RandFan

She’s dead meat. No bullcrap Russia nonsense to run on


49 posted on 07/10/2020 10:59:02 PM PDT by Truthoverpower (The guv-mint you get is the Trump winning express ! Yea haw ! Trump pence II!)
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To: RandFan

Everyone knows Biden is ahead by a 1000 percentage points. Democrats can rest easy, it’s in the bag.


50 posted on 07/11/2020 12:57:27 AM PDT by Herakles (Diversity is applied Marxism!)
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To: RandFan

Slotkin won in a Republican district then voted to impeach Trump. I sure hope she is right and the undercounted Trump voters in her district kick her butt out come November


51 posted on 07/11/2020 2:31:10 AM PDT by chuckee
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To: Steely Tom

Newsweek cover Nov. 3, 1980. Carter and Reagan running “neck and neck.”

http://pages.adateintimecollectibles.com/11804/PictPage/1922502015.html


52 posted on 07/11/2020 3:04:18 AM PDT by Atlantan
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To: Dilbert San Diego

I get two or three calls a day from pollsters or political campaigns, I don’t answer any of them.


53 posted on 07/11/2020 3:23:37 AM PDT by VTenigma (The Democrat party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

I’ve been calling them communists for years. Much to the chagrin of those around me, but I still do it.


54 posted on 07/11/2020 3:26:51 AM PDT by VTenigma (The Democrat party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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To: RandFan

When they search out and use only those who agree with them what do they expect


55 posted on 07/11/2020 4:01:47 AM PDT by ronnie raygun
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To: RandFan

Shep Smith - “He has no path to the White House, none, zip, zero...”


56 posted on 07/11/2020 4:02:50 AM PDT by trebb (Don't howl about illegal leeches, or Trump in general, while not donating to FR - it's hypocritical.)
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To: RandFan

Hey.. what do they think they’re doing telling the truth? That’s supposed to be OUR secret.


57 posted on 07/11/2020 4:03:35 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: RandFan

“The problem for Trump is this COVID nonsense.. He can’t hold his massive rallies which are so popular in certain states.”

Why do you think the RATs glommed on to the Covid hoax? In a non-election year the WuFlu would’ve been a week-long, low-key story in the media. It provided so many opportunities for them to mess with the election. End rallies. Vote by mail. Trump rallies are lethal to the RATs.


58 posted on 07/11/2020 4:09:27 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
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To: RandFan

Of course they are.

I don’t believe for one second Trump is going lose any state he took in 16..

Not a one... and I expect to win more

The biggest threat that I see is mail in voting which will result in large scale fraud


59 posted on 07/11/2020 4:11:59 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: RandFan

I got called by a pollster. First question was, do you plan to vote Trump? I said, yes, I’m not a fool. Second question, age. When I answered 65 the pollster says, sorry, we already have our quota of your age group. CLICK.

NOW, that aint verbatim how the call went but it is exactly what happened.


60 posted on 07/11/2020 4:14:40 AM PDT by weezel
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