The way I was taught, if someone lies to you, you stop listening to them.
Am I the only one that was taught this?
So why do we keep obsessing over the latest polls, even though we know they are lies?
The best way to look at this election is to look at modern history, not polls:
Incumbents win re-election, unless...
1) There is something very wrong with the state of the union (Carter, 1980).
2) The incumbent is exceptionally weak (Carter, 1980).
3) The challenger is a super hero (Reagan, 1980).
4) A strong third party run splits the incumbent party vote (Perot, 1992).
Obviously, Trump is no Carter, Biden is no Reagan, and there is no Ross Perot to split the Republican vote in 2020.
That leaves only reason #1. The Democrat shutdown of the economy for Covid19 and the anti-police race riots in Democrat cities could qualify as a 1980-like “election year malaise”.
But it is doubtful for two reasons:
First, there is still time to bring the US economy back to life before November 3. Second, the Democrats have been so desperate to exploit the pandemic and the George Floyd incident for political advantage, that they have overplayed their hand.
Their political motives have been way too obvious, their talking points and programmed fake news narratives have sounded WAY too much like the propaganda that it is.
It is not a good look. This will backfire badly on the Democrats and they will rightfully end up taking the blame for all of this - NOT President Trump.
He will get credit for the rebound.
Thanks, I hope you are right.