from texags
eidetic784:53pAG
test TATs are still variable. Depends on the lab, their capacity, the demand, etc..
My lab (Tx med center) is getting ~70% of tests reported out in ~24 hours, ~92% of tests out in less than 48 hrs and >98% in under 4 days.
But there are some that have to be re-run due to either too low of a human signal (which can signal a poor sample collection, mishandled sample, etc...), or if only one of the two viral genes being tested for is found (could be false positive, or could be true positive but on the limit of detection of the assay)
Samples falling into those situations are re-run a second time to make sure before being reported out.
We’ve also seen our demand as well as positive rate shoot up this past week.
As an anecdote, we were averaging a 4-5% positive rate for April and May. Our positive rate is relatively low because we process about half congregate site blanket testing and half drive-up sites. Of the ~600 tests we’ve processed so far today (again about half and half from congregate sites and drive up), our positive percentage on the day is ~19%
I see MD’s and clinic staff more often than not process medical statistics poorly including CDC offices. Data talent is scooped up by cash rich pharmcos, for example, Pfizer, Bayer, etc leaving government offices and hospitals scampering for data expertise, usually as an afterthought. It’s never important until it’s important and then it’s left to the number cruncher that was there when it wasn’t important. Recipe for disaster.
No doubt the test fractions are computed correctly as simple arithmetic. But that’s not describing what’s in play here.
The question of interest is not whether the fraction of positives is increasing. The question of interest is whether the fraction of cases is increasing more than expected. The modeling of expectation is where the experienced talent is found lacking.
Given an uptick in cases without adjusting before and after expectation estimates will most certainly mask an underlying change that would otherwise explain the uptick.
An uptick of 4.5% to 19% among 600 recent tests is not surprising and is of no concern to those that understand distributional processes.
Texas reopened. Those that were shuttered in close quarters are now coming out, appearing for medical appointments, testing for SARS-COV-2. The before and after reopening pool of test subjects is not homogeneous.
A reasonable assumption, and by now verifiable, is that families shuttered together are positive for SARS-COV-2 if at least one member was positive. It is therefore reasonable and quantifiable to analyze the Data in group clusters as opposed to independent subjects.
An analogy would be counting the number of vehicles running stop signs. We will see different results if we count violations by total passengers including drivers versus counting vehicles or just drivers. Think of a bus carrying dozens of passengers failing to come to a complete stop and flagged as having run a stop sign. The data tallies the bus as dozens of people having run a stop sign rather than as a single vehicle failing to come to a complete stop.
Thus, the numbers coming out of Texas should be of no concern if they are accounted for properly.
What should be of major concern, overriding concern, is the blatantly ‘evil suppression of the prophylactic regimen that prevents SARS-COV-2 from progressing to COVID-19.
HCQ + Zn + Zpac (Zpac only if symptomatic)
This is reinforced by a Texas MD who should be all over the news several times a day but isn’t. Here she is in a 4-min video:
WATCH!
https://youtu.be/mwZ509bPD6k