General rule of thumb: 3rd party candidates actually only get about half of what they poll. The other half goes to what the voter sees as the lesser of 2 evils.
Agreed. Standing in the voting booth, my pen hovered over the Libertarian candidate in 2000. But then I couldn’t pull the trigger on throwing my vote away and voted for W.
Similarly, my wife walked into the voting booth in 2016 leaning toward voting for no one for President, but ended up voting for Trump.
I think, all things being equal, these voting-both-undecideds tend to break for the Republican, because people who hate all politicians but actually show up to vote anyway tend to lean right.