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Posted on 06/08/2020 6:06:27 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
Electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) plans to introduce a new low-cost, long-life battery in its Model 3 sedan in China later this year or early next that it expects will bring the cost of electric vehicles in line with gasoline models, and allow EV batteries to have second and third lives in the electric power grid.
For months, Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has been teasing investors, and rivals, with promises to reveal significant advances in battery technology during a “Battery Day” in late May.
New, low-cost batteries designed to last for a million miles of use and enable electric Teslas to sell profitably for the same price or less than a gasoline vehicle are just part of Musk’s agenda, people familiar with the plans told Reuters.
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Eventually, improved versions of the battery, with greater energy density and storage capacity and even lower cost, will be introduced in additional Tesla vehicles in other markets, including North America, the sources said.
Tesla’s plan to launch the new battery first in China and its broader strategy to reposition the company have not previously been reported. Tesla declined to comment.
Tesla’s new batteries will rely on innovations such as low-cobalt and cobalt-free battery chemistries, and the use of chemical additives, materials and coatings that will reduce internal stress and enable batteries to store more energy for longer periods, sources said.
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(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Pro-electric car here.. however, the category of motors is very different.
Your pool motor has a relatively low horsepower rating, only accelerates 2 times per day (one positive, one negative), and has a very well defined load envelope.
The induction and permanent magnet motors used in electric cars are a different beast. During hard acceleration, over 400 hp, mechanical, is developed by a very small induction motor, that cannot possibly shed the heat continuously, generated by various losses all motors are subject too.
Tesla motors do have liquid cooling, but the waste heat generated has to be carried away. Welcome to limp mode.
Additionally, there is the stress of being driven by an inverter. No matter how well designed the inverter, or the motor, there are harmonics developed by interaction of the inverter carrier signal and the actual drive frequency being synthesized for the motor’s input.
This is why if you dig around in Tesla forums, motor replacements are not uncommon. Worse than gas/diesel replacement? No idea from here.
Gasoline motors over the last 2 decades, at least from the big 3 and the Japanese manufacturers, and Korea, can sustain long full throttle runs (under load, not just spinning free at high RPM), and hundreds of hard acceleration cycles (also fully loaded). We just have gotten good at the art.
BTW, a industrial 400hp motor that is equivalent to your pool motor (400hp mechanical output, continuous), would weight 2400+ pounds. But the power output is rated *continuous*.
Yep, Ford should have had battery cars on the road, even if they weren’t “hot stuff”, so they could be learning about building the nice stuff, by monitoring the low end stuff already shipping.
Now they are attempting to ship electric trucks and electric cars to compete at the Tesla highend, and in the end, it’s all basically junk.
If they don’t get the F150 electrified, and done correctly, Ford will die just like GM.
BTW, GM is dead, it just hasn’t quit emitting cars yet.
Though I do love me a C8 Corvette... I just doubt they will live long enough to ship many of them, unfortunately. And it should have been electric, no matter how much I may love the sound of a V8.
I love the sound of a V8 too. But other factors overrule that. My wife always tells me, the principal reason for a car is to get from point A to point B. I like getting there quickly; the sound is secondary. BTW, I've test driven Corvettes on Edmunds test tracks - not that attractive to me. Chevy lost me decades ago. GM is dead. Ford may survive - by building bicycles and fleet vehicles.
Resuscitate the Black Fox site and invite Elon to move his car factory to Inola.
3,000 MW(E) of the latest generation nuclear power should charge up those little buggers just fine before putting them on Route 66 for a dual revision of American dreams:
The USA’s First Signature Highway filled with cars powered by electricity too cheap to meter.
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They've been making carbon-zinc and alkaline cells since the late 19th century and they STILL can't make 'em so they don't leak.
But as bad as they are, at least they don't explode.
Whatever it is, it’s not a Mustang. Take that pony logo off the front and no one would have a clue what it is.
It’s the 2021 Ford Generic.
Didn’t mention anything about Pogue or “suppressed” carb. tech.
The key is a homogeneous and dense “pure” fuel mixture.
Look up Smokey Yunick’s research and be enlightened, or not.
I’ll take carb’s over FI any day of the week. Computer controls in the vehicle are nothing more than another control mechanism embraced by the powers that be. The bulk of them are completely unnecessary and do nothing more than complicate otherwise simple systems.
Try adding a hydrogen booster or two to a modern vehicle then get back with me.
Too bad many people can’t abide by the KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) principle.
The truth will set you free.
Yes, I read that summary but didn’t see the details in the OP. Your comment was indeed my assumption; but just as well you could move the batteries to another “new” car.
A few years back Tesla put out a video showing a prototype battery exchange side by side with a video of filling up a tank of gas. What they were showing was you could drive a Tesla into a “battery exchange station” where they would simply pull out your nearly empty batteries, and have freshly charged batteries installed in about the same time as it would take to fill a tank of gasoline. Then the removed batteries would go into a charger for a few hours and swapped into another vehicle sometime later. In other words, if you wanted to take a road trip there would be no need to drive to a charging station, maybe wait for a high volt charger to open up, and and then 30-60 minutes to get juiced up.
I see ads for home battery systems all the times; still quite expensive. They may make economic sense at the current time but probably not if they become ubiquitous unless the prices for the batteries come way down. That could happen if they go “1 million miles” and can be dual/triple use for cars, homes, warehouses etc. But no matter what, energy has to be generated and “peak usage time” could sprawl a bit.
Well it’s a hell of a move and I’m happy for you.
But Ford and everyone else is going to be waist deep in EVs in 5 years. Already the Germans, even Porsche, has EV versions of their cars.
EV makes a lot of sense in many ways.
I see Tesla sort of the way I see (or saw) Amazon. Amazon lost money nearly every year for decades. They survived by selling bonds and raising public capital to expand. If they have to survive by their own cash flow they would either have much smaller businesses, higher prices, or gone out of business. But that’s capitalism and forward thinking.
1,000,000 / 12,000 = 83.33 years of average driving
One wonders if the odometer and navigation system will last 83 years.
I test drove a Tesla, oh maybe 5+ years ago when they only had that one model (Model S?). It was $80,000 base. I test drove the top end model. It some really great features and the acceleration of the direct gearbox was incredible. But at that time it was missing things that many cars in that price range take for granted. It didn’t have very good seats, especially the bench in the back. I took my dad with me and he was sliding all over when I took the turns. It didn’t have soft close doors, a small thing but for $100k every German and Japanese car has that feature. Without an engine and drive shaft it was very spacious, but didn’t really have much in the way of storage compartments. Just lots of empty box like spaces in the doors and center console.
I understand they’ve improved many of these things; and after market has come up with drop in compartments like a center console and door panel organizers. But ultimately I decided to wait... that old “never buy the first model year of a new car” axiom stuck in my head.
I just drove my car for 83 years and boy are my arms tired.
Always have a gas engine backup. There are too many threats to freedom from Musk’s obsession with electric vehicles.
1. To stop you wherever you are, a GPS signal to your vehicle’s onboard computers can turn your EV off. This can happen too with gas engines but it’s easier to defeat.
2. Electric energy is second order energy in our industrial base. Second order energy forms are less efficient. Solar electric is an exception but it is not yet strong enough and importantly it is not reliable until such time it is stored reliably.
Almost all forms of electric energy are created from a first order energy source such as hydroelectric, gas/oil, wind, geothermal, solar, nuclear. As second order energy it is inherently inefficient compared to first order sources; it requires more energy to make electric energy than other energy forms.
Example:
To get a mechanical form of energy using a gas source, the following general steps may be taken:
Gas combustion ==> mechanical energy (Direct)
Gas combustion ==> electric generator ==> mechanical energy (Indirect)
At its most simplistic understanding, every time energy is transformed from one form to another there is a loss of efficiency.
Then there are fundamental misunderstandings that current industrial societies carry, namely that EV’s are less harmful to the environment.
While it is true that EV’s add zero pollutant emissions to the atmosphere DIRECTLY, most all EV;s are charged INDIRECTLY from a connection to the electric power grid and that grid is very inefficient.
Think of your electric burner stove if you have one. You turn on a burner and the electric current flows through a metallic coil and heats up. Our electric power grid is similar. Our power plants put electrical power to the grid and heat up the electric wires that carry electricity to where we tap into it. The electric transmission wires/cables heat up just like an electric stove burner and heat energy is lost to the environment. This energy loss is called line loss.
To minimize line loss, electrical transmission lines are stepped up in voltage to limit electric current because it’s electric current that heats things up and heat is lost to the ambient surroundings, i.e. line loss. So we end up with very high voltage lines, enough to fry an electrical worker into a crispy critter should they make a mistake; instant death.
Although we build high voltage lines to minimize line loss, there is always some line loss and it is about 50% in general and as high as 70% in some constructions. That means it takes twice as much first order energy to generate and deliver second order electric energy.
An EV takes energy usually almost always from the grid and thereby masks or disguises just where its energy is derived from. We could call it an eco-scam.
So the next time you hear an eco-moron tout EV’s as the way to go to save the planet or some such, tell them “Fine, but somehow you have to figure out how to turn that utility power plant off including the electric grid it feeds because your EV is going to make that environmental turd a lot worse!”, I would add that if they push for doing that, they should first be required to live a year off grid somewhere in the boonies to demonstrate they are worthy to preach their dogma of EV environmental nirvana.
I’m a practical realist. I like hybrid tech, gas-electric arrangements and that approach is what I would advocate. I like Tesla’s effort to build ‘power walls’ into new home construction. A Tesla power wall is a large lithium battery that has the dimensions of a wall inside a home, about 6” wide and 60” or 84” etc. tall. The idea is to let solar fascia or roof top panels charge the wall and store the solar energy overnight as potential electric energy. Nice line of thought. But we are not there yet. For those interested, outback batteries (http://www.outbackpower.com) are a better choice according to those with experience.
But engineering-wise and marketing-wise we are not even close to widely adapting energy systems involving practical solar-electric storage configurations. It’s akin to hearing that a new fusion breakthrough has made news with promising benefits to develop in about ten more years, always ten more years.
Socially and legally I would also advocate legally requiring full disclosure of ALL external signaling of onboard vehicles, home or business computers including smart phones that can impact performance or privacy, and further I would advocate any such signaling, monitoring be illegal without a court ordered warrant unless a customer buyer waives such rights associated.
Yes, that's a great axiom! In the case of Tesla, I've read of a lot of problems in first year models. Problem areas weren't detected during development, and surfaced when thousands of owners brought them to light. Fit and finish, jamming locks, component failures, leaks, loss of power. These all got fixed in later revisions (although happening again with new models). Tesla is improving and reducing these hiccups. Just like with computers, early buyers are financing R&D on better versions.
I do see parallels with the personal computer industry. At first, the mainstream knocks the idea and touts the existing ways. Then a flood of imitators jump in with inferior models. Then a few persist and the mainstream deniers fall away. We now take inexpensive hand-held computers for granted. Although still too expensive now, I think Tesla cars will become cheaper and sell by the millions within 5 to 10 years. I think Tesla stock prices will be in the $6000 to $15,000 range in 5 years; people will wish that they had bought it in 2020.
You don't necessarily need to buy the product, just buy stock in what other people are flocking to buy. They will pay for the R&D while you reap the profits (from owning a piece of the company).
Battery swapping is probably a great idea for fleets -- whether autos (taxis) delivery trucks or buses. Fleet vehicles have a single owner; so the battery packs can be managed properly.
However, I think that a common pool of batteries (for swapping) would also create problems for individual car owners. Some drivers would look after the battery, others would abuse them (e.g. by draining it). Inevitably, there would be winners and losers -- swapping would save many people money, and cost others more than the keep-it-and-charge-it model.
There's also the problem of standardization -- or, rather the lack thereof. Every manufacturer will have its own battery pack, or several different models, or several versions of the same model (same configuration, but different capacities). That adds up to a huge inventory for battery-swapping businesses -- a lot costlier than having one or a few different types of chargers. Different configurations would also require different changing equipment or extra time to adjust the equipment for different batteries.
The time-saving for swapping vs. charging is an important plus for swapping -- but, it would only matter for long road trips. Overnight charging works for commuting, and that negates the time-saving for swapping. As battery tech progresses, charging time should shorten.
AFAIK, there is a large shortage of storage capacity. The main form is pumped hydro storage, and other techs are coming on-stream (e.g. gravity storage). Traditionally, baseload is handled by nuclear, hydro, or coal generation and peak load falls to more expensive, fast-response methods. With facking, natural gas is cheap; so the gap between peak and baseload generation methods has narrowed.
So-called 'green energy' is the biggie. A solar or wind plant needs a lot of backup storage. That's mainly handled by the grid (at great expense); but, storage is also important. Batteries have the advantage of near-instantaneous response; so they can be used to smooth out the bumps in wind or solar generation. Unless wind and solar go away, there's probably a huge market for battery backup storage at wind and solar plants to improve the quality of their output. That could be an aftermarket for these MM-mile batteries -- sell your battery to a wind farm, and reduce your cost of auto ownership.
You raise excellent points. But it was not my idea, it came from Tesla. So presumably they had at least theorized a method of operating a “battery station” to replace the “gas station”. I don’t know if they ever built more than a prototype that I saw in their video. But we do know they have deployed many of their own charging stations strategically. At a time, charging was free for Tesla owners who purchased before 2019 but now I think there is a fee for new buyers.
Presumably, if it was Tesla operated or Tesla franchised, it would eliminate the problems with interchangeability and warranty. They would own the batteries, and lease them to you 300 miles at a time (or whatever distance they can achieve). Perhaps, they would charge based on the range. A better design and ability to hold a fresh charge would eliminate other issues.
But yes, I don’t see that you can just swap a Tesla battery pack for a Ford pack or a Porsche pack.
For most people doing everyday things, it’s not a big deal. You charge it up at home, or at work, or at the mall (when they re-open :-)) etc. For road trips and distance travelers, truckers etc, it’s is an issue that drivers have to stop every 300 or so miles and wait around for an hour or more to recharge. As I’m sure you’re familiar, these batteries lose their ability to hold a charge. I’m still using an iPhone 6 for my own reasons, it is obviously several years old and I don’t use it all that much but it used to last 36 hours or so... now it can’t hold a charge for 12 hours anymore. (Perhaps Apple caused some of this with various updates now using more resources in the background). At least I get to run it down near zero before re-charging it which supposedly helps battery life.
On further thought, a franchised “battery swap station” that was capable of swapping out a variety of different packs for different brands is not a half bad idea. It would of course require that carmakers implement more standard designs, and an easy plug and play method of swapping them out. So you could pull into any “battery station” in any EV and they would have the various models in stock ready to swap out, recharge, and swap again.
Like gasoline, you pay as you go. And the computers are probably capable of figuring out your particular efficiency e.g. highway driving will likely allow a charge to last longer than city traffic given that many of the cars to recycle some of the energy expended from wheels and brakes back into the power packs.
Go to the gas station. Fill up in 10-15 minutes. Drive 300-400 miles. Repeat as needed. “Problem” solved .
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