COVID-19 Update - 06/05/2020

My own workup | 06/05/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 79

As of 06/04/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Temporary? Maybe not... Good News...

Yesterday was the fourth day out of the last five, that our Active Cases shrank.

Our current highest count of Acive Cases appeared in a report I ran at 14:49 on
this last Sunday 05/31/20. That count of active cases was 1,186,917.

As of 23:59 last night, the count of active cases was 1,101,758.

Flukes come in one day doses generally. Four out of five days tells me there's
something else going on here other than a fluke.

Our number markers are falling across the board right now. Our Slice of the
Global Pie, our Mortaility, and our level of Active Cases are all moving down.
Resolved cases are going up. With a low Fatality count, that means that the
Recoveries are the main reason for Resolved cases. A few days ago we were
moving up at a decent clip per day. Right now we're moving down at a decent
clip.

I'd like to tell you we have reached the back side of the curve, and in truth
mometarily, we have. What I cannot tell you is if this will continue.

It appears by my numbers that with lower cases and lower mortality figures,
the clerical staff may have been assigned to wrapping up some of the
outstanding cases. (here it comes, wait for it, wait for it...) We'll have
to wait and see.

Please use caution when you are tempted to think this will definitely continue.
I don't expect it too without some hickups along the way. From here on I will
talk up how nice this has been, but remember what I have said here, as you
read my upcoming comments. I don't want to mislead you. Caution...

Yesterday's Summary in a Nutshell

The new Global Cases came in heavy at 130,447, it was another daily and all
time high. Yikes! The day before there were 122,245 New Cases. The previous
daily record was 126,700 set on Saturday 05/30.

By contrast the New Cases in the United States came in at 22,406. That was up
from 20,578 the day before.

On the Global scene, the Fatalities reported out at 5,204 for the day. The day
before there were 5,565 new cases.

Our Fatality numbers came in lower yesterday. We had 1,037. There were 1,083
the day before.

Two Different Amounts Provided for Daily Case Numbers

When I work up the numbers, I do my best to cover as many nations as I can.
Having worked with both the Johns Hopkins University and WorldoMeters systems
I realize that each of them covers some nations the other one doesn't.

There are four nations (entities) reporting out daily from JHU that WoM does
not report out. When I run my numbers, I grab the numbers from those four
entities and add them to the case total for the day.

Why do I do this. If one of these nations is one someone's radar, I want them
to be able to find it in my system. It's not a huge deal. It's just something
I chose to do.

You will able to find my total for the day. You'll be able to find the WoM
data that gives a different number. I want you to know why. The count for
for these four entites was 7,284 cases today.

If this tends to tweak your senses, this should help. I document
things you never see. When I run my reports, as part of my process I
document the number being reported out by JHU and WoM. I also document the
spread betwwn the two. How big is that spread? Glad you asked. ":^)

On 06/02/20 at the time of my 17:51 report, JHU's 17:33 report had 105,519 less
Cases than the WoM figure. Today that spread at the time of my 20:25 report had
a spread of 65,630. JHU had posted their report at 17:35, and that does
make a difference. Perhaps 15 to 30% of this spread would be my guess.

I tell you this so that you will realize that the numbers being report by
other entities, don't match each other either, so don't let the fact my
numbers are off from WoM bother you. It is a valid count.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

You can see our New Cases there, now in the higher range of our recent
scale.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

U. S. Fatalities fell yesterday. We settled in at 1,037 down from 1,083, the
day before. For a Thursday, this was very decent number, and with the Global
community on fire, it seems very fortunate to be where we are.

Friday is on deck. Hopefully we won't go much higher today.

Our number of Active Cases dropped again yesterday, by 2,213 cases. Nice.
More nice if it continues.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been dropping recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

Our slice continues to drop with regard to both these areas.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

There, how is that looking? Nice huh. We're beyond merely flattening at this
point.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. This following Data addresses that.

I went back as far as I could in my records. I plan on keeping a running
30 day display here, with the Chart starting on 04/21 & 04/23 ongoing.

As soon as I said it looked like we would hover near the 5% level, the
numbers moved us down toward the 4% level. Yesterday the pecentage moved
back up.

Here is a chart to reveal visually what the decline has looked like.

Folks can determine for themselves just how New Cases are affected by the
Testing. Look pretty good to me.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visully.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

Yesterday's New Cases reported out as a new record for both a Thurday, and
the new all time record for a single day. The number of Cases was 130,442.
The old record was set this last Saturday. There were 126,700 New Cases
that day. I don't want to think about what's brewing today.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Notice the number of Active Cases over there close to the right. As of the
end of the day yesterday, they were still lower than the numbers three days
before. Nice...

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

Look at that middle number. It's a new record AGAIN. Okay let's move on...

See how out of character Tuesdays number wound up being? Well we were back
to the full larger numbers the last days.

Look at our blue field compared to the Global red field.

So glad things are calming here.

Globally, not looking good. Domestically, looking good.

The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

You can see what one nation like France can do the the charts. I appreciate
them trying to be frank about their numbers, but there must be a little better
way to accomplish that.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

The same comments don't fit today. Look at France there. The nose dive
correction is exhibited there very clearly. It still shows up again
yesterday, even after the day of adjustment.

I really don't like it when these nations screw with the numbers. Do it
a bit at a time often. Don't do it the way France has done it here. This
is always going to have a suspect deep dive in the chart from here on out.

The United Kingdom is really making a run for the top as Declared Cases go.
Its fatalities are second highest in per million terms. Wish they could hold
it togethcer better and stop the rapid growth.

Another interesting aspect of this chart, is it's depiction of France getting
very close to intersecting the Spain trajectory. Spain appears to be very
close to heading down there.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden still remains a hot topic.

Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

Brazil again took over the top spot on both categories here yesterday. I'm
not convinced that's going to last more than few days. I expect to see
the U. S. and Brazil exchange leads often in the short term, with
Brazil possibly taking over. Not sure...

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visully.

The Resolved Case line has intersected the Active cases line there. We'll
see it move beyond in a day or so.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.002% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That percentage in the right column there, continues to grow. Very nice...

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Anyone paying attention is already aware of the issues surrounding these
numbers. I'm not going to touch base on them every day.

Here is the chart to go along with those figures.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Our fatalities have been up around 2,500 at some points. Here we are
hovering just over 1,000. Not a bad place to be, comparitively.

Here are two charts to go with the above data.

Fatalities seem to be declining, but I honestly don't know how with these
recent massive New Case days. Remember that deaths often come in very
heavy when there are heavy New Case days. It's the recoveries that lag
behind, so I'm somewhat baffled by the lower Fatality counts in the Global
community.

Let's recap. When the spread of this disease first took place, our recoveries
lagged far behind. Here we have a situation where there are perhaps close
to 700,000 New Cases per week now, and yet the number of Fatalities is still
pretty low considering. Rather than thinking we know how to treat this
better by now, I'm thinking it's because they are doing more testing, and
cases are being, found at earlier stages.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Well our Fatalities dropped a bit yesterday, and we're in a range that we
would have been happy to be in weeks back. I think we're pretty fortunate.

Looks like we're following a pattern from last week, except it might be a
bit lower.

The big take away looking at these numbers, is what they looked like now
compared to early in the month. We're doing better with a long way to go.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Look at our numbers there. We're doing better.

We've been struggling. This is nice. Hope we can keep it up.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

If you take a moment to look at how many nations we have with the higher
numbers, it becomes obvious why we have so much potential for New Cases
these days.

I added a new figure to this little graphic yesterday. In the second column
you'll notice a new series of numbers. The numbers grow as they go down
the column. At each line, you will see a total for all the nations
that have at least the amount on the right. That makes it easy to know
right off how many nations have 20, 50, or 100k (or whatever) cases or
more.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Just a lot of growth showing there. Outside the U. S., there seems to be a
lot of potential to go higher. Today may be the day...

We are under control. Globally, not at all...

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Hey 33. That's our best showing here.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁴,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

                       

[Jim Noble]

Thanks again. It’s just one man’s opinion, but I have no doubt that SOME of the fall in deaths is because care of the most critical patients has improved substantially, especially over the period 4/10-5/10.

[StAnDeliver]

These US numbers lost any meaning when COVID became catchall CoD from mid-April forward. Dystopians were allowed to destroy the global economy just to see what would happen.

[billyboy15]

“These US numbers lost any meaning when COVID became catchall CoD from mid-April forward.”

I could not agree more and would add the rest of the developed world in what you say regarding the sham numbers.

This China Virus will ultimately be seen to be the most manageable virus ever in that we knew exactly who was at greatest risk and only had to protect those in real danger. The words scam, sham, fraud do not begin to describe what the Left has done to this country and the entire world economy.

[JayGalt]

I have a special interest in the UK, Ireland & in Sweden. I’ve been trying to tease out the “whys” as those Nations have risen to the top of the CPM, DPM piles for Europe. Socialized medicine results in a general worsening of care and a pruning of options with cost vs number of productive lives saved having a big effect in the centralized decisions.
There are many factors to be considered in the mix such as immigrant concentration, trials of herd immunity etc.
I was looking at UK since now their DPM & CPM have passed Spain.
I discovered that their NHS has a fairly thorough presentation & I add it here for any with a similar interest. Nursing homes ~25% of UK cases.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

[reverse_indicator]

Thank you for posting this daily.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

If we exclude the European City States of San Marino and Andorra, here are the major world countries with the most deaths per million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1. Belgium 826
2. UK 588
3. Spain 580
4. Italy 557
5. Sweden 452
6. France 445
7. Netherlands 351
8. Ireland 337
9. USA 333

Sweden’s ‘herd immunity’ strategy has not helped them. Sweden has moved into 5th place in terms of deaths per million. And D1’s charts show that Sweden’s death rate is still on an upward trajectory.

Perhaps one thing that these nine countries have in common is the amount of interaction with the Chinese in terms of factories that have been moved to China and the resulting travel between China and these countries.

The question that seems no one is asking is this:

Why did these nine countries with perhaps the best medical infrastructure in the world end up having the most deaths per million due to covid?