Corona Virus Daily Thread #53 COVID-19 5/23/2020

5/23/20 | Many

[LilFarmer]

(@northherofx)

*LOS ANGELES, SAN DIEGO SCHOOLS TO GO ONLINE-ONLY THIS FALL: NYT

[riri]

**The doctors warn that some victims may never recover from the illness and that all age groups are vulnerable**

No one saw this coming.

[LilFarmer]

(@zerohedge)

CALIFORNIA HOSPITALIZATIONS RISE 2.6% TO RECORD 6,485

[PA Engineer]

Related (complete paper):

The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks

Abstract

Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission. However, the effectiveness of symptom-based isolation in preventing a resurgence depends on the extent of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We evaluate the contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission based on recent individual-level data regarding infectiousness prior to symptom onset and the asymptomatic proportion among all infections. We found that the majority of incidences may be attributable to silent transmission from a combination of the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections. Consequently, even if all symptomatic cases are isolated, a vast outbreak may nonetheless unfold. We further quantified the effect of isolating silent infections in addition to symptomatic cases, finding that over one-third of silent infections must be isolated to suppress a future outbreak below 1% of the population. Our results indicate that symptom-based isolation must be supplemented by rapid contact tracing and testing that identifies asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases, in order to safely lift current restrictions and minimize the risk of resurgence.

[Black Agnes]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-super-spreader-woman-lift-infections-china-heilongjiang-a9615886.html

[Fury]

“Atlanta residents and businesses continue acts of kindness amid the COVID-19 outbreak”

-see https://www.mdjonline.com/neighbor_newspapers/northside_sandy_springs/community/atlanta-residents-and-businesses-continue-acts-of-kindness-amid-the-covid-19-outbreak/article_90fc25bc-c543-11ea-bd7f-93dfcdd83059.html

[Fury]

“Dr. Anthony Fauci says U.S. coronavirus cases are surging because nation didn’t totally shut down”

- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/13/fauci-says-us-coronavirus-cases-are-surging-because-nation-didnt-shut-down.html

Comment - Fauci’s credibility is ripe for questioning. He provides scant evidence to backup his claim. That someone like him could not even consider that face masks (not N95) for the public to wear may be effective at minimizing risk of getting COVID-19 demonstrates to me that there is stale thinking and bureaucratic rot at NIAID. I mean, did NO ONE at NIAID think “maybe non-N95 masks may be effective at reducing the risk of getting COVID-19”? No one?

[PA Engineer]

Fomites and droplets strike again. I knew we would see an increase in infections as soon as people congregated indoors with AC.

How is it even possible to clean down a dining room or bar in a closed environment? Even with the best air handling system (UVC, Hepa, air exchangers), the rails, floor, door knobs and tables are still high risk.

I remember the original videos and photos coming out of Wuhan. One example showed tenants fashioning a cup and toothpicks to select elevator buttons. I suppose others in China let their guard down.

[Fury]

How is it even possible to clean down a dining room or bar in a closed environment?

People know what they need to do, so that part is easy (knowledge is available) - but it takes time and some people cut corners.

[Black Agnes]

https://www.fox13memphis.com/rss-snd/two-people-dead-after-shooting-large-gathering-mississippi/6I6SP4KRSNA2ZMAMELPJD3ZG5M/

This is why mandatory masking at walmart, home depot, etc won’t make a difference...

why close bars and restaurants when this stuff goes on?

[cgbg]

Events like this are why the concept of contact tracing (and even testing) has become a total joke since folks could test negative one day and catch the virus two days later.

The toothpaste is out of the tube....

[Black Agnes]

Too true.

I also think a lot of the ‘asymptomatic’ cases are false positives.

[Black Agnes]

https://twitter.com/tatereeves/status/1282783825219682304

[DEPcom]

With the talk of antibodies I did some reading today.

Newsweek: Immunity to Coronavirus May Not Last More than a Couple Months: Study

I found this in the Newsweek article.
"The reason for the link between sickness and antibody levels was unclear, according to the researchers. It may be that having more of the virus may make people more sick and trigger a stronger antibody response. It is also possible that antibodies themselves could make a person sicker."

This got me thinking about the early days of outbreaks in China. I remember reading the second infection is worst.

Feb 19: Whistleblower doctors say coronavirus reinfection even deadlier

Then I remember something about Wuhan: this was the site were people got a test vaccine for the last outbreak of Sars, those people were effect worst then people who never receive the vaccine. Could a vaccine be a bad idea if the antibody trigger causes an overload of antibodies?

I am still looking for that source, I might have read that here on Free Republic or a link in China twitter source.

[DEPcom]

thanks that is a must read

[bgill]

Central TX had its largest jump in one day yesterday of 1,174 new cases.

Burnet Co. now has 183 ACTIVE cases. That’s a 110% increase in the past 7 days. 60 have recovered since day 1. This is all due to the tourists and commuting from Austin.

[bgill]

Ugh, just checked our local school’s site. School is to start in less than 5 weeks and they still haven’t decided if they’ll be doing remote learning. Nothing much has been implemented except to follow the governor’s recommendation of masks and face shields will be permitted (well, isn’t that nice of them).

Parents are asking if their kid does remote learning due to covid can they still be in sports and such. Uh, yeah, sure thing. Duuuuh, everyone knows the virus is not contagious at all in the band hall, gym or locker rooms. Makes me want to reach into the screen to shake these moronic parents.

[bgill]

Yes, the damage has already been done with how dangerous it is to wear a mask.

Mask it or casket.

[bgill]

Because hardly anyone stayed home during the shut down. The shut down was nothing but words on paper. Humans are whiny little creatures. They have no one to blame but the face in the mirror for this.

[bgill]

Today, we’re at a UV Index: 12 - EXTREME (unprotected burn time 10 minutes or less) and in some places up to 108 degrees. I like to open the house up at least in the mornings and close it up when it gets too hot but Mr. b was insistent not to open up and keep the unhappy furbabies inside today. I breathe much better with fresh air.