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To: Barnacle
It gets weirder. How did we go from over 60,000 deaths to only 38,576? This is from the CDC website and is current!
8 posted on 05/04/2020 9:11:56 PM PDT by Bommer (I am a MAGA-Deplorian! It is the way! It is the only way!)
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To: Bommer

From your link...”data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.”

If we are having 2000 deaths a day, and it’s lagged one week, that’s 14,000 deaths not counted. Two weeks would be 28,000 deaths.

That could account for the difference.


16 posted on 05/04/2020 9:16:09 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Bommer; gas_dr
FAQ: COVID-19 Data and Surveillance

"Why are the death counts for the Case in the U.S. different from the Provisional Death Counts for COVID-19 and pneumonia?

"The COVID-19 death count shown on the Cases in the U.S. web page includes deaths reported daily by state, local, and territorial health departments. This count reflects the most real-time information CDC has based on preliminary reporting from health departments.

"In contrast, provisional COVID-19 death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) are updated Monday-Friday based on information collected from death certificates. These data represent the most accurate death counts. However, because it can take several weeks for death certificates to be submitted and processed, these data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. Death counts from earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received. Provisional COVID-19 death counts may therefore differ from other published sources, such as media reports or the Cases in the U.S. web page.

(If we are at 2000 deaths a day then a 1-2 week lag represents a difference of 14,000 to 28,000 deaths.)

30 posted on 05/04/2020 9:24:55 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Bommer

“How did we go from over 60,000 deaths to only 38,576?”

From the same CDC site, on the “Technical Notes”.

“It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.”
...
“COVID-19 deaths may also be classified or defined differently in various reporting and surveillance systems. Death counts in this report include laboratory confirmed COVID-19 deaths and clinically confirmed COVID-19 deaths. This includes deaths where COVID-19 is listed as a “presumed” or “probable” cause. Some local and state health departments only report laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths. This may partly account for differences between NCHS reported death counts and death counts reported in other sources. Provisional counts reported here track approximately 1–2 weeks behind other published data sources on the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. (1,2,3).”
...
“Coronavirus disease deaths are identified using the ICD–10 code U07.1. Deaths are coded to U07.1 when coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 are reported as a cause that contributed to death on the death certificate. These can include laboratory confirmed cases, as well as cases without laboratory confirmation. If the certifier suspects COVID-19 or determines it was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), they can report COVID-19 as “probable” or “presumed” on the death certificate (5, 6). “


35 posted on 05/04/2020 9:28:49 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("...that all the donkeys were dead. I know nothing as to the fate of the less valuable animals.")
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To: Bommer

The 38,000 number is “confirmed” deaths.

That means a death certificate and official cause of death have been sent to and processed by the CDC.

The 38,000 number is based on data that is several weeks old.

I assume the “headline” 69,000 number is compiled from data from state and local Health Departments - but, I do not know that for certain.


60 posted on 05/04/2020 9:44:44 PM PDT by zeestephen
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