Hospitals around me are basically empty. Robberies have gone up and globull warming is freezing my garden. It’s a Bernie paradise.
Saw the plans to open back up, then they increased the numbers. Think University of Washington, think Bill Gates, think WHO.
On April 18 I made an estimate of 75,000 deaths by June 1.
We will see how these estimates pan out.
“A lot of unknown factors..”, huh?
Like an effective treatment soon? Or conclusive test results on existing medicine that ward off the virus. None of this was included in your model.
The death stats include dying while positive and dying while presumed positive.
The death stats are crap.
That’s 2/10000th of one percent that you could randomly get it. Unless you were making out with a chick from Wuhan.
I wonder if I should trust these models more?And we should believe this why?
“74000”
I.e. 0.1% fatality rate, assuming a 20% infection rate. Or 1% fatality rate, assuming a 2% infection rate. Fancy model.
All this death, all this suffering, not to mention the financial cost all so Trump can be removed from office and Nancy Pelosi in between coke lines can be feted at a cocktail party.
“ the model’ had previously predicted over 100,000 deaths - that was about 3 weeks ago
“ the model “ is about as useful as a 30 weather forecast
“ the model” is heavily affected by the management or mismanagement of healthcare decisions in the state of NY, which should be severed from the national model
No. The longer we’re locked in, the more our immune system deteriorates.
On the bright side, weekly deaths dropped to 3,236 from 8,103 the previous week. The flu season is ending.
And therein is the conundrum. 14,000 increase in projected fatalities if opening economy now, vs., how many more deaths if keeping the economic shutdown? 14,000 is less than 300/state, in my state that’s 5 per county. Isthat worth an economic disaster with long term cascading effects, and related deaths, we probably haven’t even thought of yet?
Did it predict those Nursing Homes deaths in New York?
The big number giveth (in this case the Fearpers will dance) but still and think of it..:even assuming the inflated death number (6,000 ALONE in NYC likely true deaths are 2/3 the reported number) this means they are forecasting a decelation (drastic) over the next five weeks
If we take the media lies at face value of 55,000 deaths in six weeks then an additional 15,000 in five weeks show exactly what pence said. That this will be behind us by Memorial Day
They have unwittingly confirmed what we have said all along. And as a bonus assuming the 70,000 number, the true death rate after excluding the possible and presumptive is 48,000
Take aways
1. Models unwittingly prove that we are on the down slide and the numbers are collapsing
2. Death rate will turn out to be around 0.1% with deaths equivalent to a seasonal flu
3. The data, even the manipulated data are bringing into clear relief what previously was a murky model
4. IMHE and all the people advocating on going lock down and social distancing are now showing this to be about control of free people instead of population health management
Which stooge will be first to report “Trump kills 14,000 more”?