Posted on 04/27/2020 8:05:11 AM PDT by SJackson
There is no “urgent crisis” due to Covid-19 that requires a lock-down of citizens. That conclusion is based on the following:
* The probability of dying from the virus in the US is very low: 1.5 out of 10,000.
* The death rate attributed to Covid-19 in the US, which has placed increasing restrictions on people, is about the same as the death rate in Sweden, 2.0 out of 10,000, which has placed very limited restrictions on people.
Read below for objective details that lead to that conclusion:
Sources of Data: I used the most recent data for Covid-19 from the four websites below on 4/24/20.
[1] The Johns Hopkins’ website (for deaths by country…other than in the US).
[2] Worldometers (for deaths in the US).
[3] CDC (for deaths by age).
[4] Wikipedia (for population): The US has a population of 329,064,917, and Sweden has a population of 10,036,379.
Probability of Dying from Covid-19 in the U.S.
The number of deaths from the virus in the US is 50,988. The probability of dying from the virus in the U.S., therefore, is equal to the number of deaths divided by the U.S. population: 50,988/329,064,917 = 0.00015 = 0.015% = 1.5 chances out of 10,000 -- a very, very low probability.
For comparison, 61,099 Americans died of the ordinary flu two seasons ago. That means that the chance of dying from the ordinary flu was 1.9 out of 10,000, which is higher than the Covid-19 death rate.
Furthermore, when you take into account that most of the deaths from Covid-19 were of older people with underlying medical issues, the chance of younger (under 55), healthy individuals dying from the virus is much, much lower -- probably 1.5 chances out of 100,000.
Probability of Dying from Covid-19 in Sweden.
Sweden has had 2,152 deaths out of a population of 10.12 million, so the probability of dying from the virus in Sweden is about 0.02% = 2 chances out of 10,000; very low and not much different than the US death rate.
Conclusions:
* If you’re over 55 or have serious health issues, there is a greater risk of dying from Covid-19 (or any flu) than if you’re under 55 and are in generally good health. So the prudent thing for older people or people with underlying health conditions to do is follow the CDC guidelines carefully and stay away from crowds.
* Everyone else should just chill-out and go back to work.
After receiving his Ph.D. in Artificial Intelligence at M.I.T., Doctor Shillman founded Cognex Corporation, currently the world’s leading provider of machine vision systems, computers that can “see,” that are used in factories around the world to guide the manufacturing and distribution of products ranging from potato chips to computer chips.
But everyone should note that the death rate figures only apply to today. In another month they will be higher. People keep dying. Populations do also but very slowly.
Of course we know the deaths attributed to the China Virus are being padded in order to maintain maximum panic and hysteria among the sheeple, many of whom are right here on FR.
Ok. You still have to multiply by the deaths by 20 because only 3 or 4% of the US population has been exposed yet.
While I agree the lockdown has been a poor response to COVID, it is just false stats to claim the death rate being 1.5 per 10,000. This is DURING the pandemic, so not the “final” stats, AND this is after lockdown. Such nonsense.
So we shut down the economy and spent $3 trillion to move the needle on just the Covid-19 numbers from Sweden’s .02% (few restrictions, sustained economy) to the US’ .015%?
Speaking only for myself, that’s far and away too high a price in lives and livelihoods ruined for the difference.
The number given for the death toll from the Spanish flu of 1918-1920 in the United States is 675,000, but for some reason that does not include the deaths in 1920. (Two of my mother's cousins died in early 1920 from the flu--the last cases I know of in Europe were in April 1920.) So say 700,000 or more total. The US population at the time was about 105 million. We have slightly more than three times that population now. So to have a comparable death toll, we would have over 2 million deaths from the Wuhan virus.
Of course we know the deaths attributed to the China Virus are being padded in order to maintain maximum panic and hysteria among the sheeple, many of whom are right here on FR.
+++++
That’s probably true. But it’s not my reason for saying the death rate will rise over time when calculated based on the number of deaths and the total population of the U.S. Right now we really don’t know what percentage of the population has gained immunity but it is certainly not 100%, the figure used in this article.
A crucial defect of the analysis IMHO.
The number of dead due to corona is being inflated (faked) at all levels to enhance and extend the panic, justify and support draconian measures, and financial aid from federal taxpayers.
And this is why the Fraud Fauci went in yelling two million are gonna die
Trump was spooked by an “expert”. Better not happen ever again
...So the prudent thing for older people or people with underlying health conditions to do is follow the CDC guidelines carefully and stay away from crowds.”
* Everyone else should just chill-out and go back to work....
*******************************************************
Perhaps there should be a government program for all persons older than 85 who were working before COVID-19. Give these older-than-85 workers a payment to voluntarily not work and maintain social distancing.
Everybody else...back to normal.
Um, okay, then. You take your PhD in a field completely unrelated to life sciences and make all kinds of pronouncements and I'll take my PhD in life sciences and start passing myself off as an expert in Artificial Intelligence. Because one PhD is exactly like another, right?
Don't confuse the statistics at the population level with the statistics among those infected. These are completely different, and are used for different purposes. Telling people that they have nothing to worry about from a deadly disease that is as contagious as the common cold just because a minority of the population has not had the disease is like telling people to go ahead and play with bats, because rabies only kills 0.0000005% of the population. Rabies is still 100% fatal!
The problem is we will have no way of knowing of those who died from what was SAID to be the China Virus actually did die from it.
The data is in and it clearly shows shutting down the country was a mistake of monumental proportions.
Bump
volunbeer wrote:
“
* If you’re over 55 or have serious health issues, there is a greater risk of dying from Covid-19 (or any flu) than if you’re under 55 and are in generally good health. So the prudent thing for older people or people with underlying health conditions to do is follow the CDC guidelines carefully and stay away from crowds.
* Everyone else should just chill-out and go back to work.
Trump needs to wake up immediately to the conclusion of this piece. It is absolutely true and it is based on the data.
If you are not in a high risk group by age, health, or both at worst, there is no real reason you can not be working!”
Re: age of vulnerable people...
First it was “over 65”, then it was “over 60”, now it is “over 55”.
Are they advocating over 55 now not take chances by working?
Senormechanico wrote:
“I found a very interesting interactive graph which shows the Effective Reproduction Number of the virus state by state and dates.
For example, my state of Washington is now at 0.89
Most states are over the hump.
—very interesting—
Ro were already decreasing when shelter orders were given.
Example:
New York max Ro was 1.67 on March 9th.
Shelter order was March 22nd when Ro was 1.21.
[[The low probability of dying indicated above is a result of the lockdown imo. ]]
A few points to support that thought- i also think this is why-
Nursing homes were hit hard in the beginning- but then they got locked down pretty quickly *(except in blood lust states like NY where they actually sent infected people to nursing homes- hence the much higher death rates in NY nursing homes)
At home elderly folks pretty much hunkered down if they have health issues-
Younger people for the most part stopped going to elderly grandparent’s homes, parent’s homes, sick relative’s homes etc-
once they open everythign back up, and peopel relax their diligence, we’re gonna have a whole bunch of elderly folks with conditions exposed to the virus again
All we did really was delay the inevitable- in the hopes of getting a vaccine, or at least a treatment no doubt- but we’re not there- thanks to liberals who want folks to die to keep the scam going- their opposition to HCQ is simply Satanic- We could all be back to normal IF the left had got on board with HCQ by now- They know this- but refuse to accept it wanting everyone to be locked down for as long as possible-
That is all they have to run on=- a destroyed economy- but thing is- THEY are the ones who have destroyed it by fiercely opposing HCQ
Cigarettes are an OK death because of the taxes collected.
We need to tax COVID-19 somehow, then it would be OK. I know, tax the Sanitizers, buck a bottle.
Tell Trump, he’s in charge... isn’t he?
Thank you for injection rationality into the childish name-calling fest.
“If you’re over 55...”
That explains it..!
Isn’t the minimum age on FR over 55?!?
And yes, I meant minimum...
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