Bah, I forgot to mention: the projections are based on if we do nothing to contain the spread. We have been implementing measures to contain the virus; the projections can therefore be revised downward. And if we stop the quarantines, we can expect the virus to spread freely and the projections to be revised upwards again.
It’s all based on risk assessment and mitigation measures.
I’d take the bet that the states that open back up show almost no upward trend.