I’d take the bet that the states that open back up show almost no upward trend.
Sweden is widely touted as having controlled Covid-19 without any government interventions. Unfortunately, Sweden has more cases and deaths per one million than its closest neighbors. In the US, we have a sizeable number of people who do not take Covid-19 seriously and who therefore will not follow any recommendations for social distancing. They are the ones who will make sure this pandemic lasts longer than it needs to.