COVID-19 Update - 04/25/2020

My own workup | 04/25/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update

As of 04/24/2020 23:59 PDST

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you'll find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info
Section: 02     the Mortality Report
Section: 03     the United States Situation
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 05     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 06     Miscelanious Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranked with the Other States
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Link to Spreadsheet: Our Counties, States, Territories, & Other Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information²
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

the United States Passes Another Milestone

Early this morning the 50 states and the District of Columbia passed the 50,000
level of deaths. If you add in our territories, we actually hit the mark before
midnght last night. In Europe they seem to be progressing down the back side
of the curve. Hopefully that will hold and we'll be there within a week or two.

the United States Passes Yet Another Milestone

Sometime a little before noon PDST yesterday, the United States passed the
900 thousand mark of COVID-19 cases.

Section: 02

the Mortality Report

Making an effort to provide more mortality numbers these days.

Hopefully these upcoming numbers and charts will help with that.

Our numbers are big enough that they can hide the finer nuances of the
Global numbers outside China. For that reason, I strip our numbers off
that group and report them separately for this area of study.

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

Here's the chart to go along with those figures.

Looks pretty ominious there doesn't it.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Here's two charts to go with it.

Well, Friday came back with a vengence today. I'm not liking the numbers,
and I'm checking my data to make sure I haven't don't something wrong, but
I don't see it, if I did.

Our numbers went down for the day, but the Global area outside China was
nearly double it's most recent days. Case numbers were way up. It was
the largest day of growth on record, and extra reporting may have tossed
around a number of our metrics.

Something like that is what we want to see.

Here, lets look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

This chart tracks he daily inrease over the previous day, in the middle
column there.

We were back under 2,000 for the day. That was a relief.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United States of America

Looks Like We Fell of the Recovery Truck Yesterday.

Declared Cases in the United States

We continued our upward trend of growth. Look at that 39,049 cases added.
Trump recently said we're doing a lot of testing and finding fewer positives.
Can't tell it from the numbers, but I'm sure he's referencing something we
don't see here.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases in the United States
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here's more of our numbers...

Our fatalities for yesterday came in under 2,000. We're essentially struggling
to do better at this point, and it's not working to the degree we wish it would.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our Slice of the Pie has been slowing. On the 16th it actaully
went netative for one report row on my spread-sheet. Luckily it was the EOD
figure so you could see it.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globale Declared and Active Cases.

On the right there. We dropped by a quarter of a percent. I'll take it!

I think it's an interesting indicator on it's own, but it's not really
sufficient. We now have seven sets of data looking at the U. S. vs the
world. We win some and lose some. LLook for these in Section 09.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first chart for the Global Outside China Territories

Yesterday morning I talked about Thursday being bad. Look at that nubmer
of new cases yesterday. Good heavens... The last five days have shown
a steady and building growth. Today's was pretty incredible.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

I was feeling pretty good about five days ago, but yesterday was a bad
day. Now, will it average out over the next few. I sure hope so.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Well, not too good yesterday...

They've moved higher and lower, but keep winding up about where
they aer right now. Enough already...

Here again, that last chart was a seven day averaged chart.
It helps a lot.

Those charts can't hide yesterday's performance on the global stage.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Lets Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Germany is looking pretty good there. They've kept their deaths down pretty
well.

France seems to have taken a turn in the right direction.

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Againt COVID-19?

Sweeden is doing their own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

I hate to say it, because I want people back at work, but it seems to me
that Sweden has shown what going back to work might wind up doing. I
don't think it has to be that way, if folks are careful. From what I've
seen it doesn't seem like the Swedish people are careful. I may be off
base on that though. I only know what I've seen presented in the limited
media I observe.

Finland is still looking good.

Section: 05

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.05% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

That recovery percentage continues to climb. It's has grown close to 10.0%
since 04/03, when it bottomed out. That will impact our active cases. If
it continues for another two weeks, we'll be up around 40.00%. I like the
thought of that.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Crical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Crital here, courtesy of amorphous

Not much to say here. Big numbers getting bigger...!

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one case.
I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this time.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

That's a whole lot of nations there. With over 1,000 in each one, we know
that over time they are potential declared cases time-bombs.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certaind days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticably larger because of it.

And we now know Thurdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Look at that growth yesterday. It was the highest growth day so far.

I'll keep tracking this for at least a few more weeks to give folks a chance to detect
patterns not only on Fridays, but other days as well.

If you're missing the listing of the states here, please check out
Section 08.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Natons?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There were 212 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 212 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category has the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with 31 top spots on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the Disctrict of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

In this category I noted four nights ago we were 42nd on this list. Three
nights ago we were 43rd. The last two nights we've been 41st. From
Trump's recent comments, I can tell it's a big deal to him to rise up in
this categore. I think it will happen shortly.

Section: 10

Here's what it's all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Courtesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US States DC⁵¹, Territories⁵⁺, and Counties²⁰⁰
                Excel Spreadsheet with Alphabetical and Numerically descending Cases

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own discression.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   earlyAlert

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nazal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, burough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   World Health Organization

[wastoute]

Good point! We should Tariff the hell out of foreign oil. Let them burn some in their engines as they go elsewhere.

[Wonder Warthog]

"Someone noted yesterday if jeans and undies cannot contain a fart how is a piece of material going to contain a virus."

Because a "fart" is gaseous, but the ejecta containing the virus are small liquid droplets. "If" a covid carrier and a vulnerable person are within 6ft, probability of contamination transmission is 90%. "If" the carrier has a mask, the probability of transmission drops to 3.5%. "If" BOTH have masks, the probability of transmission drops to 1%. WEAR THE DAMNED MASKS!!!!!

[stylin19a]

thanks for the continued tremendous effort.

Huge jump in recoveries in U.S. Another good sign.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

We export more crude oil and the derived products than we import.

One area we do need to impose tariffs is ‘legal’ drugs and medical supplies. Our imports of medical stuff far exceeds our exports.

MAGAA-—Make America Great Again Again by moving medical stuff factories back to America.

[reverse_indicator]

Thank you for preparing these great tables and charts. I would like to offer my opinion on Sweden. I think all of us have lost sight of the fact that flattening the curve did not mean reducing the number of cases, but spreading them out over time so as not to overwhelm the system. The goal was to reach herd immunity or develop a vaccine to reduce the number of cases. In this regard, Sweden may be getting their cases out of the way more quickly than neighboring nations and that is why their numbers per million are higher. We will only know this in the end if their percentage of infections and death or equal to those other nations.

[wastoute]

I think Doughty one is who you meant to post to.

[Presbyterian Reporter]

Let’s compare Sweden and Germany.

Germany 1851 cases per million-—69 deaths per million
Sweden 1800 cases per million-—217 deaths per million

I am hoping it works out ok in Sweden as I have many family and friends living there.

But if I were a resident in Europe right now, I would feel much safer in Germany.

[DoughtyOne]

Yes, at over 26,400, it was nearly double the previous
high for any day so far. (over 13,800)

We have at least 10k so far today. I think yesterday was
affected by the Friday dump situation, but I’ll take it.

Another factor here is that the recoveries are touted to
be under-reported, so any good numbers there are special.

Thanks for your comments.

[DoughtyOne]

d":^)

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