Posted on 04/24/2020 2:26:02 PM PDT by Bruiser 10
There is simply no other way to state this.
Nearly everything we’ve been told about models, rates of infection, deaths, and recoveries was inaccurate.
I’m not here to argue that it was malfeasance or ignorance — both are unacceptable. But the one thing that Governor Andrew Cuomo’s stunning announcement made clear on Thursday is that there are some pretty shocking — and what should be — reassuring truths.
Cuomo announced that antibody testing in New York state, which only began four days previous, was already demonstrating that at minimum 13.9% of New Yorkers, had COVID-19 late stage antibodies.
The implication of this is a shockwave to the system.
With a population of 19,540,500 the findings point out that over 2,500,000 New Yorkers had the virus and have recovered. Keep in mind that as of this writing that only 263,000 New Yorkers have currently confirmed cases. Also as of this writing New York has reported 19,543 fatalities.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
Get Back to Work!!!
Depends on whether he’s being truthful or full of BS as usual.
Ventilator Ventilator Ventilator
There are 28-38 Natural Pandemic prone viruses/bugs (not even Augmented ones) in CCP alone.
The made us jump .
Whats next.
Two comments:
1) This gives similar results, although a bit lower, than the MGH study in Chelsea, MA, which only tested 200 “men on the street.”
2) In a test like this, false positives are very important. If the test had a false positive rate of only 10%, and no one actually had antibodies, it would have indicated a 10% infection rate (rather than the reported 13.9%). But, that wouldn’t account for the higher rate reported for the NYC subsample.
It is very important that tests like these indicate the false positive rate, or at the very least adjust for it!
The infection fatality rate is at least .9% in NYC, calculated as follows
NYC has 15,411 Covid deaths already which is .18% of the population of 8,400,000. This is the lowest possible infection mortality rate assuming every single person in NYC is infected.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-data-map-04202020-1.pdf
The recently completed study of 3,000 New Yorkers found an infection rate of 21% in New York City. Therefore the total infected population of New York City is .21 * 8,400,000 = 1,680,000. This includes those infected but who show no symptoms.
Therefore the infection fatality rate for Covid19, based on over 15,000 fatalities, is 15,411 / 1,680,000 = .917%
The Santa Clara study was based on testing a population which had only a 1.5% infection rate, so false positives from the test could have made 15 times larger effect on the estimate of those infected.
The quoted death rate of .1% for seasonal flu is the number of deaths over the number of SYMPTOMATIC flu cases. Those without symptoms are not part of the denominator in that calculation (see CDC link below). It is estimated (see nhs.uk link below) that 75% of regular flu cases show no symptoms. This brings the infection fatality rate for regular flu from .1% to .025% if you count infected people instead of just symptomatic people. Covid19 therefore 36 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t at least 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.
https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-many-people-already-have-covid-19/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/21/revealing-chinese-virus-excess-death-graphs-coronavirus/
Yep.... gave him a new name weeks ago... Andrew “The Ventilator” Cuomo.
Apparently, this info was below Cuomo’s pay grade.
A prolonged economy-destroying lockdown is the last chance for the anti-American commie rats to destroy the country, steal the next election and get rid of Trump.
Not “had”, because nobody knew such information early February.
China, with no inhibitions, was welding apartment buildings shut to stop it.
Italy had overloaded hospitals.
Just because we know something now (and I’d contend we still don’t know nearly enough), doesn’t mean we made the “wrong” decision when a decision had to be made.
Which kind of wrong would you rather be? economic calamity, or >1 million dead?
By the grace of God I live in Tennessee, a free state vs one of the prison states. The difference is really that stark. Our Governor has strived from the beginning to preserve liberty rather than throw it in the ditch at the first sign. Democrats ARE the enemy of our country. Actually of the world.
This is another 20-20 hindsight wizard congratulating himself on how smart he is because he has data it was impossible to have had earlier.
A Chinese antibody test had a 1.4% error rate; I assume the Santa Clara study was using a test with a similar error rate. Therefore, the finding that 1.5% of the people in Santa Clara tested positive is within the margin of error. Add to that the fact that the way they selected participants for the study was likely to enrich the sample for those who could have been exposed. In addition, the study authors then used the positive rate and extrapolated it out to come up with a prevalence of seropositivity of up to 4.16% (CI: 2.58-5.70%). In other words, the Stanford study was deeply flawed.
I have not seen anything about a New York study. The linked maps only show proportion of patients who tested positive, which really does not indicate much about the general population.
This is great news. The diseased didn't start in China. It started right here in the US. Now we can go back to relying on China for everything. In fact, we owe them reparations for giving them the disease while covering it up here.
Can I order some new pink flamingos for my lawn now?
This is the problem with false positives. A 2% false positive rate and 7 Million Americans are infected even if no one actually had it.
It is probably correct. But just for information purposes, the CEO of Roche pharmaceuticals says the antibody testing is unreliable. Said a lot of them are testing for “any coronavirus” antibodies and not specifically for the Wuhan Sars-Cov-2 virus.
Unfortunately in all of this, there are now so many highly vested interests - politicians, bureaucrats, statisticians, drug companies & media and more - that it’s very difficult to separate wheat from chaff.
One thing for certain, almost nothing the media says about science is correct.
“A Chinese antibody test had a 1.4% error rate; I assume the Santa Clara study was using a test with a similar error rate.”
You got it. The false positives are much more significant when you only have 1.5% positives, versus in NYC when false positives are insignificant compared to real positives. 21% - .5% is noise, 1.5% - .5% alters the infection rate by 33%.
“This is another 20-20 hindsight wizard congratulating himself on how smart he is because he has data it was impossible to have had earlier.”
—
And as with so many grifters he has the rare, if not singular, ability to find the real TRUTH! (”Truth” has to in all caps - these kind of self proclaimed experts would probably demand that, at least.)
That is just Cuomo “venting” his frustration over his incompetence.
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