USC Study Finds Coronavirus Far More Spread In L.A. County Than Reported

The Federalist ^ | April 21, 2020 | Tristan Justice

[Kaslin]

A new study unveiled Monday from the University of Southern California (USC) with the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health discovered infections of the novel Wuhan coronavirus to be far more widespread with a lower fatality rate than initially thought.

The California researchers conducted rapid antibody testing of a representative sample of adults and found that approximately 2.8 to 5.6 percent of L.A. County’s adult population already had coronavirus antibodies present, translating to 221,000 to 442,000 past-infected people. The new estimate dwarfs the nearly 8,000 cases that had been reported at the time the study took place April 10-11. There are now nearly 14,000 confirmed cases of the virus and more than 600 deaths officially reported in the county as of this writing, according to L.A. County Department of Public Health.

“We haven’t known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited,” said the study’s lead investigator and USC Professor Neeraj Sood in a statement. “The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.”

The results of the USC-LA study have yet to be peer-reviewed but illustrate that the new coronavirus is far more prevalent throughout communities than what’s being reported. as new infections continue to sprout from asymptomatic individuals.

“These results indicate that many persons may have been unknowingly infected and at risk of transmitting the virus to others,” said Dr. Barbara Ferrer who serves as the director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health.

Monday’s study echoes the findings of Stanford researchers who came to a similar conclusion last week after conducting antibody testing further north in Santa Clara County.

Stanford scientists estimate that between 48,000 to 81,000 people had been infected with the virus in the county by early-April, a 50-85-fold increase in the number of publicly confirmed cases with 100 deaths projected by April 22. That lands the fatality rate at 0.12 to 0.2 percent.

While the Stanford study also remains in pre-print awaiting peer-review, the research provides an important glimpse into the true reach of the virus having likely infected far more than publicly known due to lack of testing.

Panic over the novel virus prompted 42 states to issue shelter-in-place orders keeping at least 316 million people home as early estimates depicted a bleak future of overwhelmed hospitals struggling to handle the surging caseload of sick patients. As extreme social distancing measures have successfully flattened the curve in many states, some have announced they will begin easing lockdowns with certain conditions to keep some restrictions in place. The White House released federal non-binding guidelines last week on reopening the American economy. More than 22 million Americans filed for unemployment in just over four weeks.

Governors in Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas, and South Carolina, each declared they would be lifting stay home orders either on or before April 30th with limited reopenings of local businesses.

[walkingdead]

And the denominator of our math equation grows. No matter how hard we try, we just can’t seem to stop that immunity from growing!

Everyone, “shelter in place” has just been upgraded to “do not leave your house”. If that denominator gets much bigger, we will be forced to open things up. Then how will the totalitarians totalerate?

[TBP]

This shows two things:

1. The lockdowns aren’t preventing people from getting the disease, and

2. With such a high incidence, the virus is far less lethal than we were told.

So what is the point of continuing the shutdown?

[AFPhys]

I have seen articles that suggest over 1/2 of children in NYC were infected with this in Jan-Mar time frame. They would likely have been thought to have a cold, sniffles, or simple flu. Only antibody testing of a broad swath of that population will let us have any idea of the real numbers. (Of fatality divided by infections).

[babble-on]

I hope it’s true, I just wish the studies showing it to be true were not so riddled with errors.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

“Covid19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu, you can distort the numbers however you want, you can believe whatever you want, but no one can make a plausible argument that Covid19 isn’t 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, no matter how hard they try.”

Current forecast is for 60,000 Covid-19 deaths. In September 2018, the CDC estimated the 2017-2018 flue killed 80,000, later revised to 61,000. Now tell me again exactly how Covid-19 is 10x deadlier than the 2017/18 flu?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017—2018-cdc-bn/index.html

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

“So what is the point of continuing the shutdown?”

1. To save face.
2. Government inertia. A giant government structured system (even with forced compliance) will perpetuate itself without significant intervention. Especially if Federal, State, and Local governments are in agreement and gain more power.
3. Our enemies are fighting hard to prevent reopening, before a 2nd Great Depression is a done deal. Which will be in weeks, not months. Socialism is a bonus.
4. Orange Man Bad.
5. All of the above.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

“... I just wish the studies showing it to be true were not so riddled with errors.”

There are now 3 US studies roughly saying the same thing. And overseas studies already out. And don’t forget the Diamond Princess. Notice they won’t talk about that! Also, don’t take some rando freeper’s word about the accuracy on, well, anything. Time will tell. Days, not weeks.

I believe the studies, myself. Then again I look at the latest Covid-19 death forecast of 60,000, and say, “So what? Same as the 2017/2018 flu!”