Posted on 04/15/2020 5:40:10 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
Rome (AFP) - Testing is being held up as the world's best bet for ending the economically crippling -- and emotionally draining -- coronavirus lockdown.
But some doctors at the Italian epicentre of the health crisis doubt that countries can test their way out of confinement.
"It is a nonsense," Milan's Polytechnic Institute professor Davide Manca said.
"Conceptually, I am sceptical."
The reason for Manca's scepticism is plain to see in the math.
Milan's Lombardy region has 10 million people and 11,142 officially registered COVID-19 deaths.
The economically vibrant area the size of Belgium has been under one of the world's strictest lockdowns since early March.
Few regions need testing more.
Yet Lombardy has been conducting just 6,500 tests daily over the past 10 days.
Manca estimates it would take more than five years for everyone in Lombardy to get tested just once.
"And you need people tested every 15 days for it to have any meaning," Manca said in a phone interview.
"Even if you raise that number 10 times, that would still take 200 days for one test. That's six or seven months."
Manca was talking about the swab tests that doctors insert up people's noses to see who is COVID-19 positive.
Their shortage has made Lombardy's death ratios look stark.
The region had conducted 234,870 tests and confirmed 61,326 cases by Wednesday.
A jarring 18.2 percent of those officially infected with the virus have died of COVID-19.
(Excerpt) Read more at france24.com ...
Frankly that horse left their barn a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time ago.
Testing is a tool.
Cuomo-style economic bloc household quarantine is the best path forward.
Italy, France, Greece and Spain are highly tourism dependent.
Italy’s banks may fail.
European banks may come under fire 2008 American style.
The bad assumptions are:
The current tests are the only ones available.
Future tests will take as long to utilize, will be just as expensive, and have the same accuracy/inaccuracy.
All of those assumptions are being shown to be false.
It is impossible to know what the actual death rate is without knowing how many people have actually been infected.
By contrast, NYC had 6,589 COVID-19 fatalities as of Apt 14@1pm with a population of 8.4MM. NYC is testing like crazy.
Has Italy checked out what South Korea is doing in the way of testing? South Korea has the best numbers compare to the 20 worst countries.
NYC added everyone that died since March 11th a total of 3700!
That inflates the NYC numbers, meaning NYC is likely even BETTER than Lombardy.
They're doing something wrong in Italy.
>>Yet Lombardy has been conducting just 6,500 tests daily over the past 10 days.
650 a day. ‘splain why the lag?
they’ll want to vaccinate everyone, at higher cost. and won’t drag their feet.
>>It is impossible to know what the actual death rate is without knowing how many people have actually been infected.
look at 2010....
“The CDC and the World Health Organization stopped trying to count all the actual cases months ago”
Swine flu has killed up to 17,000 in U.S.: report
HEALTH NEWS FEBRUARY 12, 2010 / 11:18 AM / 10 YEARS AGO
H1N1 swine flu has killed as many as 17,000 Americans, including 1,800 children, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday...
ACCURATE ESTIMATES
The CDC and the World Health Organization stopped trying to count all the actual cases months ago, once it became clear that H1N1 was a pandemic that would infect millions...
South Korea doesn’t have 300,000 Chinese nationals living in its borders, like this area of Italy does.
If it did, what would South Korea have done with them?
I just heard yesterday are hiring nurses for $10k/week from all over the country.
Cutting down hospitalizations is primary!
Less hospital, less tubes, less death....
Then testing....
Trump has cured cancer, AIDS, heart disease, etc.! The only thing he has’t cured is COVID-19.
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