More than half the total number of cases and deaths in the entire US are centered in one metropolitan area. In a sane world, that would be a clue as to the next step.
1). The models/predictions are being updated based on hospitalizations, ICU’s, ventilators and deaths that have occurred so far with about half having occurred in NYC. Demographics, especially density of population, in NYC are not like that in most of the rest of the country.
2). The CDC instructs that anyone who dies with even the suspicion that the person had Covid-19 should/must be coded as dying from the C-virus.
3). The model uses assumptions and inferred parameters which always err on the side of the greater number of ICU needs, deaths, etc.
The C-virus is a serious health threat but a model is only as good as its underlying format and the data input allow.
The Covid Act Now model explanation opens with the following disclaimer: “This model updates every 24 hours and is intended to help make fast decisions, not predict the future.”
Nuke it from orbit?