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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
...indicates a covid-19 fatality rate of 0.37 percent, information expected to inform government decision-making about lifting restrictions.
German antibody study indicates fatality rate of 0.37 percent

11 posted on 04/09/2020 12:50:48 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
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To: SunkenCiv; NobleFree; Paladin2; aMorePerfectUnion; gas_dr; dp0622; null and void; DoughtyOne; ...
This seems like a perfect place to post today's installation of the proper relative comparison of deaths across the world. Below is today's update with April 8th totals for the US and other countries that started their round of golf on March 26. While the US' time series ends on Day 15 (which is April 8 - and is basis of the order, i.e., I sorted the data by Day 15 values), I am publishing other countries future totals/'golfer's scores' who are on hole 8 while we're at hole 4.

The US' ranking in this group of countries hasn't changed much at all since Day 8. I also want to re-iterate what I said yesterday, that reporting in NYC (and probably elsewhere) suffer from reporting lags.

As noted previously, the 'hands-off' countries like Sweden and the Netherlands are higher (which isn't a good thing) though the US is pretty close to Sweden which hasn't vaporized its service sector. Time will tell if their approach is prudent. And, in line with this article, Austria and Luxembourg have much lower population-adjusted fatalities; while not shown, Norway and her 5MM citizens had about 6M adjusted fatalities a few days ago. At the other end of the spectrum, Spain and the UK continue to look like hell on this adjusted basis. As noted earlier, Europe is on avg about 8 holes, erm, 8 days ahead of the US.

Someone asked me what all this means. I approach this answer the same way I approach the query of comparing gun control in other countries vs the US: ours is a nation of individuals with a strong distrust of authority but a willingness to do the right thing. We tend to go our own way, which works best for us but on a comparative basis may look good or bad (depending upon who gets to define 'good' and 'bad'). In the end, other countries and their homogenized population of obedient peoples may take an approach with lower 'costs.' America with her 329MM individuals may use a more harsh, 'social distancing' approach that seems to have vaporized a good chunk of the economy, but we're also not like the UK, Spain and Belgium.

In the long run, I'm betting on America.

Country Date of Day 1/1,000 population-adjusted deaths Day 11 Day 12 Day 13 Day 14 Day 15 Day 16 Day 17
Andorra 3/21/20 51,000 59,500 63,750 68,000 72,250 76,500 89,250
San Marino 3/3/20 49,079 49,079 49,079 68,711 68,711 107,974 107,974
United Kingdom 3/15/20 15,528 19,326 25,357 34,021 41,018 47,016 59,744
Spain 3/13/20 16,170 19,647 25,518 30,541 35,950 41,855 47,600
Belgium 3/19/20 12,325 14,670 20,160 23,678 28,911 32,686 36,689
West Bank and Gaza 3/25/20 28,167 28,167 28,167 28,167 28,167 - -
France 3/18/20 11,384 12,828 14,887 17,353 19,864 26,521 32,034
Netherlands 3/17/20 10,330 12,086 14,579 16,335 19,640 22,189 25,324
Italy 3/5/20 9,896 11,805 13,692 16,291 18,627 22,057 26,395
Ireland 3/25/20 9,174 10,580 11,651 14,062 15,736 - -
Sweden 3/23/20 9,823 11,417 11,896 12,789 15,213 18,848 21,910
United States 3/25/20 8,407 9,619 10,783 12,722 14,695 - -
Switzerland 3/16/20 7,331 8,866 10,132 11,514 13,779 16,619 18,730
Macedonia 3/24/20 5,819 8,244 8,729 11,153 12,608 14,063 -
Luxembourg 3/17/20 8,052 9,663 11,273 11,810 12,347 15,568 16,105
Denmark 3/22/20 5,886 6,962 7,867 9,112 10,131 10,584 11,489
Portugal 3/23/20 6,702 7,889 8,530 9,460 9,973 11,064 12,186
Germany 3/25/20 5,723 6,278 7,174 7,990 9,310 - -
Austria 3/23/20 5,849 6,219 6,885 7,552 8,144 8,995 10,106
Iran 3/9/20 5,078 5,667 6,154 6,664 7,166 7,649 8,214
Iceland 3/23/20 3,619 3,619 3,619 3,619 5,428 5,428 5,428
Cyprus 3/23/20 3,762 4,139 4,139 3,386 3,386 3,386 3,386

12 posted on 04/09/2020 1:35:59 PM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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