[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[DoodleBob]

As for our FR hackathon, in line with my prior posts on a proper relative comparison of deaths across the world, below is today's update with April 7th totals for the US and other countries that started their round of golf on March 26. While the US' time series ends on Day 14 (which is April 7 - and is basis of the order, i.e., I sorted the data by Day 14 values), I am publishing other countries future totals/'golfer's scores' who are on hole 8 while we're at hole 4.

The US' ranking in this group of countries hasn't changed in the past few days. It's also worth noting that per this story out of NYC today, "The latest numbers reflect a one-day death toll of more than 800, but the city noted that the unusually high increase was due to reporting lags (emphasis added)." This means the jump 18% jump in deaths on Apr 7 effectively reflects a time-shifting of deaths that should have been in the April 6 totals. Thus, relative ranking can change due to reporting lags not just in the US but elsewhere; caveat emptor

As noted previously, the 'hands-off' countries like Sweden and the Netherlands are higher (which isn't a good thing) though the US is pretty close to Sweden which hasn't vaporized its service sector. Time will tell if their approach is prudent. And, as noted before, Spain AND the UK continue to look like hell on this adjusted basis. Finally, Europe is on avg about 8 holes, erm, 8 days ahead of the US.

As I said previously, I'd prefer to be lower in this bodies-on-the-cart analysis, but for now it is what it is. Pray for everyone.

Country	Date of Day 1/1,000 population-adjusted deaths	Day 11	Day 12	Day 13	Day 14	Day 15	Day 16	Day 17
San Marino	3/3/20	49,079	49,079	49,079	68,711	68,711	107,974	107,974
Andorra	3/21/20	51,000	59,500	63,750	68,000	72,250	76,500	89,250
United Kingdom	3/15/20	15,528	19,326	25,357	34,021	41,018	47,016	59,744
Spain	3/13/20	16,170	19,647	25,518	30,541	35,950	41,855	47,600
West Bank and Gaza	3/25/20	28,167	28,167	28,167	28,167	-	-	-
Belgium	3/19/20	12,325	14,670	20,160	23,678	28,911	32,686	36,689
France	3/18/20	11,384	12,828	14,887	17,353	19,864	26,521	32,034
Netherlands	3/17/20	10,330	12,086	14,579	16,335	19,640	22,189	25,324
Italy	3/5/20	9,896	11,805	13,692	16,291	18,627	22,057	26,395
Ireland	3/25/20	9,174	10,580	11,651	14,062	-	-	-
Sweden	3/23/20	9,823	11,417	11,896	12,789	15,213	18,848	-
United States	3/25/20	8,407	9,619	10,783	12,722	-	-	-
Luxembourg	3/17/20	8,052	9,663	11,273	11,810	12,347	15,568	16,105
Switzerland	3/16/20	7,331	8,866	10,132	11,514	13,779	16,619	18,730
Macedonia	3/24/20	5,819	8,244	8,729	11,153	12,608	-	-
Portugal	3/23/20	6,702	7,889	8,530	9,460	9,973	11,064	-
Denmark	3/22/20	5,886	6,962	7,867	9,112	10,131	10,584	11,489
Germany	3/25/20	5,723	6,278	7,174	7,990	-	-	-
Austria	3/23/20	5,849	6,219	6,885	7,552	8,144	8,995	-
Iran	3/9/20	5,078	5,667	6,154	6,664	7,166	7,649	8,214
Iceland	3/23/20	3,619	3,619	3,619	3,619	5,428	5,428	-
Cyprus	3/23/20	3,762	4,139	4,139	3,386	3,386	3,386	-