Posted on 04/05/2020 3:38:46 PM PDT by Hojczyk
Web site that tracks actual hospital beds in use suggests the model used by top White House health officials to project the trajectory of the coronavirus has so far overestimated the number of Americans hospitalized by the disease by tens of thousands.
Those projections, popularly known as the "Murray" model after the model's lead author, University of Washington professor Christopher Murray, were explicitly cited by Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator for the White House's Coronavirus Task Force, at a press conference in the last week.
Birx told reporters that Murray's model, which predicts a shortage of tens of thousands of hospital beds throughout the country by the middle of April, underscored the task force's "concern that we had with the growing number of potential fatalities" based on the model's projections.
White House officials did not respond to requests for comment from Just the News.
But at a White House press conference on Saturday, Birx said that coronavirus modelers are "re-evaluating all of their models in light of the level of the impact of the mitigation."
"Just to be clear, we won't know how valid the models are until we move all the way through the epidemic," she said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, meanwhile, reportedly said during a recent meeting that disease models "don’t tell you anything. You can’t really rely upon models."
Fauci has elsewhere indicated a preference for overestimating the possible effect of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States, telling reporters in March: "I think we should be overly aggressive and get criticized for overreacting."
(Excerpt) Read more at justthenews.com ...
Ya think? Not you. The “experts”.
Sounds like we need to go out and mingle to get those numbers up.
That’s an understatement!
All the data that you really want to know is hidden by HIPPA.
I consider that a good thing
I would rather plan for the worse and hope for the best
I have to redo my math but I’m not seeing more than 50K dead after this and who knows how many of those are ‘died with’ vs ‘died of.’
There putting the country in a depression...
There laying off nurses where I live
The only ones who will survive...government workers,teachers,and college professors....and the iyis in Congress...
People will be scared to death to leave there homes when we a allowed by the new dictators in this county...governors
..
Agreed. Because it makes Fauci and the Dem/Media Party look like they overreacted.
“Just to be clear, we won’t know how valid the models are until we move all the way through the epidemic,” she said.
Then what the hell are they good for?
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”. — George E. P. Box
They made a big thing of the Oregon governor who ordered 140 ventilators from the Fed stockpile for her state then turning around and donating the 140 to New York. She has 738 ventilators in Oregon. Number of people currently on ventilators - 38. That tells me something.That is why Trump has been saying the need for ventilators is way overblown and exaggerated.
Oh “The Whitehouse is” is it?
I am pretty sure keeping track of that is delegated to the CDC who is supposed to report accurate numbers to the President.
If the numbers are inaccurate then it goes without saying that people at the CDC need to be fired for cause.
So, after stuff literally isn’t adding up —
Birx - “...reevaluating”
Fauci - “...models don’t tell you anything[!]”
Dude!
Who made the model you have been plastering all over planet erf!
Let me guess, The Bill and Melinda China & RUS Gates Foundation !!
No joke, there are significant connections to P4/L4 Wuhan lab.
I am not the brightest nor smartest but why do I ALWAYS predict what will happen when crisis is hijacked and guv,politia-whores and medi-duh take the crisis for a ride?
In a few months they are going to be selling for a couple hundred.
"New, never used".
I have not seen any actuals for the hospital beds, only the daily deaths through April 1.
So you have to go with the tried and true isolate, isolate, isolate?
X is an unknown variable
Spurt is a drip under pressure
The “basic reproduction number”, the R-naught number, for Covid-19 was calculated as 2.2 on March 20th. That’s without without the social separation and other mediation.
To get an idea of what the number of infected would be after a month we could look at the Doubling Pennies Problem. The Pennies “basic reproduction number” is 2. Slightly less than the Covid virus.
You start with one penny on day one. 1
You double that on day two. 2x1= 2; and then add day one 2+1 =3 for the total.
On day three you double day two, 2x2=4. Then add the previous total 4+3 = 7 for the new total.
Seems like no big deal at first, but by day 30 you end up with over a billion pennies.
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