Posted on 04/05/2020 11:09:18 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
More than 85% of Americans are under stay-at-home orders, and at least one-third of the world is under some type of lockdown.
The restrictions promote social distancing to "flatten the curve," or keeping the number of coronavirus infections at a level that won't overwhelm healthcare systems. But keeping so many people at home is also tanking the global economy and depriving students of education. About 10 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance in the past two weeks, and the US restaurant industry had hemorrhaged about $25 billion as of March 22. Major universities have switched to remote classes, and public schools are closed indefinitely in states including California, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
Plus, of course, staying at home is making many of us lonely and stir-crazy. So the question on many people's minds is: When will the lockdowns end?
Experts can't say for sure. The US's social-distancing guidelines have been extended through at least April 30. According to Davidson Hamer, a professor of global health and medicine at Boston University, some relief could come in mid-May. Epidemiologists at Harvard University think intermittent lockdowns may need to extend into 2022, with social-distancing measures in place 25% to 70% of the time.
However, a new antibody test rolling out in the US within weeks offers a glimmer of hope. These tests will be able to tell whether a person has already had COVID-19, regardless of whether they showed symptoms. A positive result would mean they're probably immune.
Widespread antibody testing could divide America into two groups: the vulnerable, and the recovered. The latter could slowly go back to work, breathing life into the US economy and helping us get back on track before a vaccine becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
3 weeks for me so far with no end in sight.
they say 3 more weeks but they will punt again. everyone is already looking at the shutdown continuing through May and longer...
The same reliable test, S. Korea has been using, has been available for about a 3-4 weeks in America at UC Davis, California.
So what kind of games are being played at the testing level?
UC Davis Health speeds up COVID-19 testing [video]
Academic medical center in unique position to benefit patients in the Sacramento region
(SACRAMENTO) — Clinical pathologists, infectious disease physicians and scientists at UC Davis Health are collaborating on new reagents (substances used for chemical analysis), diagnostic tests and a vaccine for the COVID-19 coronavirus in hopes of preventing and ultimately treating the infection.
UC Davis Health’s Clinical Laboratory began internal testing March 19 with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assays (tests to determine presence of infectious agents) while, at the same time, developing high-throughput assays on the Roche Diagnostics cobas® 6800 System to meet an expected surge in cases. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted “emergency-use authorization” to UC Davis’ test in mid-March.
This week, UC Davis Health Clinical Laboratory specialists developed the capacity to run as many as 200 tests a day. The commercial device has the capacity to perform more than 1,000 tests per day if the need arises.
Lydia Howell, professor and chair of the UC Davis Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, and Nam Tran, associate professor of pathology and laboratory medicine and senior director of clinical pathology in charge of the COVID-19 testing at UC Davis Health, discuss the instruments, the testing and their implications for COVID-19.
Q: When did UC Davis Health acquire the Roche cobas 6800 system?
Howell: It was delivered in December. We had chiefly purchased it for oncology testing. We didn’t anticipate it was going to be used for this, yet there it was ready to go when this crisis came up.
Q: Describe the instrument and UC Davis Health’s strategy in putting it into operation.
UC Davis Health clinical lab scientists load the university’s newly installed Roche Diagnostics Cobas 6800 instrument for high-speed COVID-19 testing.
Tran: The Roche cobas 6800 is effectively a giant robot the size of an SUV. We knew we’d have to move with the flow of where the demand was then be able to scale, so we came up with a three-pronged approach.
The first prong was come up with an assay, in this case, a CDC-based assay, to test 20 patients a day and sustain that for a while. The key term there is sustainability.
That brings us to the next platform that we looked at – an instrument called the GenMark ePlex. We already use it, and they had an available laboratory-developed test.
Once reagents were available simultaneously, which is the third prong, we deployed the Roche cobas 6800. To go from something that can test 20 tests a day to something that could test up to a 1,000 or more a day with a robot, that’s our end game. This is a marathon. It’s not a sprint.
Q: How accurate are the test results?
Tran: This is bread-and-butter laboratory medicine that we do day in and day out. We go through typically rigorous validations, including now with this COVID response. We compare against multiple standards to ensure that we are either meeting or exceeding what the manufacturer has claimed. And in this case, we’re seeing, at least with a CDC assay, a 91% sensitivity up to 100% specificity.
Q: Are we the only health system in the area with this technology?
Howell: Yes. We had this assay in advance of the emergency-use authorization. It was only released to certain laboratories such as academic health laboratories capable of bringing it up and onboard before it’s been FDA approved. We’re the ones able to do that testing and validation.
And the fact that we had some of the earliest COVID-19 patients here at UC Davis has helped us do that testing on real patients and their specimens, ensuring that this is a safe test for everybody. We have epidemiologists, treating physicians and the entire spectrum of expertise saving specimens and documenting what we see. Then, we’re able to take this knowledge and go forward and study for the future. That’s what an academic health center is all about. We’re really lucky here.
Q:Are you confident we will weather this crisis?
Tran: Yes. I have full confidence that the lab, the School of Medicine, the Davis campus and UC Davis Medical Center will meet these challenges. This is more sustained and challenging than Ebola back in 2015, but we have the resources and great people. It makes this institution great. We’re able to overcome it.
COVID-19: Stay Informed On The Latest Coronavirus
https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/uc-davis-health-speeds-up-covid-19-testing/2020/04
The test stings like crazy. They put it WAY up and keep it there for 10 seconds. Ouch!
I heard some medico/bioscience person on the radio say that it may turn out that the immunity is like the ones that come after a cold.
It could taper off after a few months.
Even Birx doesn’t know, much less Hillary and Pelosi’s friend.
Maybe the CDC should get off their butts and start finding out?
“What about reports that the recovered have contracted it again?”
You dont contract it again. Those people got a false negative.
RE: They want to test everyone for antibodies then brand those who pass
“Brand” is a very loaded word.
How about letting those who pass get back to work so that we can have a functioning economy again?
Because everyone in the US would feel entitled to have a test, with demand overloading the supply. Can you imagine what Hollywood is going to be like if (when) these tests are readily available? Not only would they *demand* the tests, they would publicize the results on social media.
Now, why aren't the tests available for those critical need situations here in the US? That would be a better question.
“Sounds like I need to get the virus quickly where I can feed my family. Should’ve gone to Florida and partied with the college aged kids over Spring Break. Win-Win.”
You sound like our grand kids at home from college doing the online stuff.
Their parents out a ton of money as basically zero colleges are refunding tuition, and landlords are not refunding money paid.
they are working on a finger stick to paper blot test which will be more efficient and quicker
[[they say 3 more weeks but they will punt again. everyone is already looking at the shutdown continuing through May and longer...]]
From the aRticle- sheep up- powers that be want this spread out for years:
“Epidemiologists at Harvard University think intermittent lockdowns may need to extend into 2022, with social-distancing measures in place 25% to 70% of the time. “
Yes.
We need to innovate on cures, PPE for all, more widespread-faster-cheaper testing.
No matter what projects I'm doing at home, trips out are required for materials and tools, perishable food and gas.
RE: Question: Why can’t we get them here
Because we have a very powerful regulatory agency with enforcement powers called the FDA.
I’ve had tubes down my nose into stomach before- NOT pleasant at all-
I’d say the ones making us sit around and ruin our businesses over something that doesn’t effect many people is pansy ass.
[[No matter what projects I’m doing at home, trips out are required for materials and tools, perishable food and gas. ]]
Exactly- Apparently we’re all supposed to ‘shelter inplace at hone’ but then go out and cram like sardines into walmarts where there aren’t any groceries or toilet paper etc- but by golly a person can’t go out golfing, or paddle boarding or fishing well away from everyone else
We've been hunkered down at the nully hacienda for nearly 9 weeks.
Red Dwarf Ping!
LISTER: (Grinning inanely) This is insane! We've been in here 5 days. There's no sign of any virus. We're _clean_!
KRYTEN: That's it -- 5 days! We've got him! Space Corps Directive 699 -- we can demand a rescreening!
CAT: He'll refuse.
KRYTEN: He can't! He's playing by the book! We've _nailed_ him!
RIMMER: (Voice only, sounding oddly strained) Gentlemen. Your conversation makes interesting listening.
LISTER: RIMMER, is that you?
RIMMER: Oh, yes.
LISTER: 'Ow long have you been listening?
RIMMER: Two, maybe three hours.
LISTER: Well, no one's got any disease, man.
CAT: We're clean.
KRYTEN: You have to re-screen us, sir, as per Directive 699.
LISTER: No one's got any virus and no one's smeggin' nuts!
RIMMER: Well, that's good.
The observation window depolarises, revealing RIMMER. He is NOT in uniform.
RIMMER: Is something amiss?
LISTER: (Slight quaver in him voice) Amiss? God no, what could possibly be amiss?
RIMMER: You don't think there's anything amiss? I'm sitting here wearing a red and white checked gingham dress and army boots and you think that's un-amiss?
CAT: No, of course not. It's just that we thought you had gone nuts! We were tryin' to humour you.
RIMMER: I was just doing a little test -- a little test to see if you had gone crazy.He abruptly tenses and lets out a horrible yell.
RIMMER: CHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! If there is one thing I can't stand it's crazy people.
LISTER: Well we've passed the test, Rimmer. You can let us out.
RIMMER: I can't let you out.
LISTER: Why not?
RIMMER: Because the King of the Potato People won't let me.
Pretty sure I already had it. Couldn’t stop coughing long enough to hold a conversation. But I have O blood type. So it didn’t kill me.
Pansy Ass is running and hiding in your house based upon the commands of power hungry politicians.
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I agree with that.
My sister had it...she’s a healthcare worker and a big wimp. She said it was really uncomfortable but was over quickly. Tested negative.
Interesting theory. I hope they develop and release this test soon.
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