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Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate: Is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?
The BMJ ^ | 04/05/2020 | Michael Day

Posted on 04/05/2020 10:54:01 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.

A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said.

China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.

Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”

Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed.

Users of Chinese social media have expressed fears that carriers with no symptoms could be spreading the virus unknowingly, especially now that infections have subsided and authorities have eased curbs on travel for people in previous hotspots in the epidemic.

Zhong Nanshan, a senior medical adviser to the Chinese government, said that asymptomatic infections would not be able to cause another major outbreak of covid-19 if such people were kept in isolation. Officials have said this is usually for 14 days.

Nanshan said that once asymptomatic infected people were identified, they and their contacts would be isolated and kept under observation.

Citing classified data, the South China Morning Post said that China had already found more than 43 000 cases of asymptomatic infection through contact tracing.

The latest findings seem to contradict a World Health Organization report in February that was based on covid-19 in China. This suggested that “the proportion of truly asymptomatic infections is unclear but appears to be relatively rare and does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.”1

But since that WHO report other researchers, including Sergio Romagnani, a professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, have said they have evidence that most people infected by the virus do not show symptoms. Romagnani led the research that showed that blanket testing in a completely isolated village of roughly 3000 people in northern Italy saw the number of people with covid-19 symptoms fall by over 90% within 10 days by isolating people who were symptomatic and those who were asymptomatic.2

In an article on the website of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, Jefferson and Carl Heneghan, director of the centre and editor of BMJ EBM, write, “There can be little doubt that covid-19 may be far more widely distributed than some may believe. Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle.

“What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?”3

References

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TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; covid19; economy; infection
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To: DennisR
oh. *blush*

Antibody testing, those positive and therefor 'immune' are eligible to go back to work/normal activities. We'll probably have to incentivize them to offset the more than normal-pay-to-sit-on-your-butt Pelosi add on.

Low risk groups return to normal life when the new infections rate drops for 5 days in a row. Perhaps with HOCQ prophylaxis?

Both groups to avoid contact with known high risk groups.

High risk groups remain hunkered down until the new infection rate drops to a safe level. (TBD, by area, and possibly contingent on reliable prophylaxis, which could include a rapidly developed vaccine)

Monitor for new cases and update at least weekly, and by area.

There is no medical reason some normal activity couldn't resume in a week.

There is an infinite number of democrat roadblocks that will be placed in the way.

101 posted on 04/05/2020 3:40:18 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: DennisR

That started out as a jab at “progressives” who would use “If it saves just one child’s life” as a battering ram to push their destructive agenda.

I added old fart by suggestion recently since it was pointed out that this flu didn’t seem to touch children.


102 posted on 04/05/2020 3:50:57 PM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: PGR88

What would be the motive for the Chinese to develop a bio-weapon that kills more elderly, more men, and people with underlying health problems?

Sounds like a NAZI thing... Is it possible when this virus comes back in the fall that it will see the people who have already had it as having ‘underlying health problems’?

It just seems odd billions of yuan and much theft of biotechnology was used for the purpose of creating a mild flu...


103 posted on 04/05/2020 7:57:03 PM PDT by GOPJ (COVID Community Vulnerability Map: https://covid19.jvion.com/ Disease: tinyurl.com/cvirusmap)
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To: null and void

Oh...bummer...heh-heh. Should have picked up on that. :)


104 posted on 04/06/2020 8:40:03 AM PDT by DennisR (Look around. God gives countless clues that He does, indeed, exist.)
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To: DennisR

I’ve noticed ya don’t hear “If it saves just one child’s life...” much any more.

What other talking points can we co-opt?


105 posted on 04/06/2020 9:06:45 AM PDT by null and void (By the pricking of my lungs, Something wicked this way comes ...)
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To: null and void

One woman declared something like, “I do not care if the entire economy sinks if it means my Grandmother lives.” Or something to that effect. I think she said that on Twitter.

Will try to pick up some others as we go along.

Interesting that government folks are generally not losing their paychecks while the private side of things is getting hammered.


106 posted on 04/06/2020 9:11:24 AM PDT by DennisR (Look around. God gives countless clues that He does, indeed, exist.)
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