Fauci: ‘You Can’t Rely On The Models,’ Too Many Variables

The Wire ^ | April 3 2020 | By James Barrett

[DarthVader]

What a maroon! He is all over the place and he is outright wrong here.

[StAntKnee]

Ummm, why the heck is he talking about models in earlier briefings, then?

[conservative98]

Rely on models. Don’t rely on models.

[Red Badger]

A Computer ‘Model’ is essentially a spreadsheet that you plug different values into different formulae and see what happens.

Anybody that has competency in using Microsoft Excel can make a ‘computer model’......................

[traderrob6]

Yea, kinda like “climate change” models?

[Fightin Whitey]

The Fauci Dance continues.

Translation: He hopes it is several million deaths which might give him time and cover enough to latch onto a model and lucky break that reveals him as the hero after all.

[Buckeye McFrog]

And then Birx steps to the podium to transmit her extreme faith in models.

Good cop, bad cop?

[Nifster]

Then let’s quit making decisions based on models

[Future Snake Eater]

This guy realizes that millions are out of work and people are terrified for their lives b/c he convinced Trump the models were accurate, right?

This guy is the best we have? Our experts are trash, I swear.

[BradyLS]

I get the feeling that we are “below the curve.”

A good thing, but not something to admit so soon after telling folks stay-in-place until April 30.

[Hojczyk]

Trump better open up the economy by April 15...start with risk assessment...

They have people scared to death...

FedX 380,000 workers...

400 sick. did not say if any were in the hospital

[chris37]

He’s not really wrong about that.

How are models supposed to account for the herd of cats that is Americans?

How are models supposed to account for the guy walking up the drink isle opening every bottle and drinking from it?

[DannyTN]

We know we have 6099 deaths in the USA. We know what the curve looks like in the past.

There may well be a lot of variables that make it hard to predict the future. The biggest is whether patients will get treated with an effective treatment.

But we know if there is no change from prior behavior, it’s going to get much much worse.

[rightwingcrazy]

BS, MD, CYA.

[Reily]

Certainly make a bad one!

[Texas Eagle]

“Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude that 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week,” the Post reported Thursday. “The experts said they don’t challenge the numbers’ validity but said they don’t know how the White House arrived at them.” So far, the Post reports, the team has “not provided the underlying data so others can assess its reliability, and have not provided long-term strategies to lower that death count.”

Wait, wait, wait. I know my reading comprehension skills have never been what they used to be but doesn't the first sentence identify where The White House gets its numbers?

[Dawggie]

“Rely on models. Don’t rely on models.”

Models are almost always based on some assumptions. The assume will get you every time.

[marktwain]

Yea, kinda like “climate change” models?

Exactly so. Fauci is correct.

You cannot rely on the models.

Garbage in, Garbage out.

Much like the climate change nonsense.

The big difference is climate change models attempt to project over decades, while these models only project over months.

[DarthVader]

I think that is plenty of time to finish decontamination and have most sick treated with HCQ/Z-pack/Zinc. We can start to reopen a large part of the country.