Posted on 03/29/2020 7:54:53 AM PDT by DannyTN
... The U.S. government’s foremost infection disease expert says the United States could experience more than 100,000 deaths and millions of infections from the coronavirus pandemic. ... “I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases,” he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. “We’re going to have millions of cases.” But he added “I don’t want to be held to that” because the pandemic is “such a moving target.” ...
(Excerpt) Read more at fox29.com ...
Want to quarantine pregnant women?
The Death rate depends on the spread and the time from infection to death. The spread rate out of NYC is going to be way slower than inside NYC, so it will be very hard for the death rate to sustain in areas that don’t ride public transportation.
To have 100,000 deaths by April 15, nearly 10,000,000 people have to have got it by April 4.
Most of the People dying this week of CCV, got it BEFORE the “15 days to stop the spread”.
The Death rate depends on the spread and the time from infection to death. The spread rate out of NYC is going to be way slower than inside NYC, so it will be very hard for the death rate to sustain in areas that don’t ride public transportation.
To have 100,000 deaths by April 15, nearly 10,000,000 people have to have got it by April 4.
Most of the People dying this week of CCV, got it BEFORE the “15 days to stop the spread”.
bttt
If facts scare you, facts are not the problem.
It’s easy to jack-up the death toll by including, for example, the guy in hospice care who tested positive as being killed by the virus rather than by what put him in hospice care. Haw is Fauci going to adjust for that?
Or just treat it with IV vitamin C and other therapies.
There is no need for yet another vaccine.
Conventional wisdom says if we remain isolated from one another we can flatten the curve on the initial spread. This “wisdom” is found in every epidemiology textbook. This virus is here to stay until there is a vaccine so over time it is possible we may hit those numbers or more.
However, these things (as we have seen) are very difficult to predict with any kind of accuracy so the “experts” are hedging their bets to questions people want certain answers about.
I don’t know who is right or who is wrong and honestly there is a wide range of answers from “experts” as well. This understandable uncertainty is being made far worse by the media, politicians, and even keyboard enthusiast like us speculating about it. The “experts” who are much more reasoned about this and less fearful about it are not given equal coverage to the hyperbolic bomb throwers in the media.
There are important takeaways moving forward after this health disaster that rational people should be able to agree with if we are going to continue to live in a global world with free and frequent travel. However, as we saw from Pelosi today the democrat party/media complex remains focused on trying to destroy Trump.
Trump needs to pivot hard against China on this thing because they created it, hid it from the world, and have made it much worse than it would have been across the globe. This is undeniable.
Any nation with “wet markets” should remain permanently on a travel ban list. That would be a good place to start for Trump and these practices (mostly found in the 3rd world) must be public health enemy #1 for the world. The dangers of these markets are well known and have been known for decades and this is not the first virus to emerge from one of these in China. You want to be part of the global community? Implement safe food practices!
The failures of the WHO and their inability or curious lack of skepticism about what China was saying about the virus when this was largely confined to Wuhan province is inexcusable. We have now seen what fiction authors made a living with for years in action - a global pandemic. It should not have been one and there are numerous lessons to take away from this moving forward for every nation and international organizations. Stop and consider that there are many far more deadly potential pandemics out there than this one!
Our government, immigration system, and healthcare system have to be better prepared for any future pandemic. This disaster has revealed many weaknesses throughout the system that existed long before the Trump administration. We need to manufacture drugs and needed health care supplies here in the U.S. - that is a good place to start and Trump has said this for years.
At this point we are stuck. If Trump tries to ease the lockdown he will be blamed for every future death. If he does not ease the lockdown we might end up in a depression and our already unmanageable government debt will spiral out of countrol.
We are in a catch-22. As you asked “why the hell are we on lockdown again?” Because Trump is damned if he does and damned if he does not. He (and we) are now hostage to events we cannot control in the near-term, but it is a good time to have these conversations and more about what we will do and change moving forward.
A thought experiment: Lets assume every governor reverses them shutdown orders.
1. Will parents send their kids back to school? I doubt it
2. Will the parents of kids return to work and leave their kids in day care? I doubt it.
3. Will waitresses with children at home return to work to earn tips? I doubt it.
I believe the shutdowns just put an official stamp on what everyone will do anyways.
I won’t argue with your math, but up to this point we have not seen the exponential growth seen on a standard epidemiology spreadsheet.
This thing is more prone to flatten out in the near term if what we have seen in Europe or Asia is correct.
I do too. But I think it helped them do it earlier than they otherwise would have.
I myself haven't been into the office for 4 weeks. But not everybody has that luxury.
“Don’t drag the rest of the country down with you.”
Surely you don’t think lowly postings on FR have any influence on the course of events...
I have one seasonal employee who was scheduled to come into office when no one else was going to be present and at last minute decided it wasn’t worth it and stayed home.
so very true (and heartbreakingly sad) Antoninus
that’s exactly my position in central FLA. I know no one that’s been diagnosed but I now know dozens who have lost their jobs.
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