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In dramatic fashion UK Imperial College scientist Neil Ferguson published a doomsday scenario on March 16. Now just ten days later, he has reversed his outlook, essentially settling on a prediction no worse than a bad flu season.

Regardless of whether or not Ferguson's models have credibility, that's just a falsehood. He released a second model based on social distancing policies being implemented vs. doing nothing as the first model did. He never "reversed" his previous findings as this article falsely claims. Even a cursory about of research would have revealed that. This article is misinformation.

Chuckle!
Exactly what is he point of making crazy predictions for mass death, without taking into account all factors, including promising drugs like Chloroquine, which have been effective in France and just yesterday approved by the Indian government as well as other very promising drugs under testing right now, plus other normal preventive measures that are taken to combat every other infectious disease for over a hundred years?
Its like me saying 10 million people will die from car accidents this year by making the assumption that everyone will drive at 100 miles per hour.
Its garbage predictions based on garbage modeling.
Dr Ferguson has a lot to answer for.

He released a second model based on social distancing policies being implemented vs. doing nothing as the first model did.

What a crock.
Even as far back as the middle ages,and even before that in the 14th century people fled the congested cities like London to get away from the various plagues (bubonic plague etc) that came up.
Why on earth would Neil Ferguson make the assumption that people will act any different this time?

He never “reversed” his previous findings as this article falsely claims. Even a cursory about of research would have revealed that

That's exactly what he did. He just wouldn't say it. It's like all these politicians who “misspoke” when they are caught out.

This article is misinformation.

You are disinformation.

I work professionally with model-based forecasts in my line of work (nothing to do with health care). Anyone in my industry who came out with a “second model” after the first one was invalidated would have been laughed out of business.

The whole purpose of modeling is to develop multiple scenarios BEFORE you make any predictions. Models are invariably wrong by their nature — simply because the variables are usually unlimited, and no modeler can foresee all of the factors affecting an outcome. A successful modeler knows how to capture variables to get a reasonable baseline estimate, and then run the model multiple times using valid scenarios.

This guy Ferguson sounds like he produced a Michael Mann “hockey stick,” and everyone just took it at face value.