Posted on 03/26/2020 10:29:46 AM PDT by Hojczyk
1/ This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the @imperialcollege authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths - and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID; https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
2/ He now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. - more than 1/2 of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case bc they were so old and sick.
3/ Essentially, what has happened is that estimates of the viruses transmissibility have increased - which implies that many more people have already gotten it than we realize - which in turn implies it is less dangerous.
4/ Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within two to three weeks - last weeks paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/
5/ One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* - the UK only began ita lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work.
6/ Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US - I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.
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(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
The charitable view is that he was a fool.
The paranoid view is that he wanted a plague, to justify massive federal funds. The Democrats LOVE this epidemic. They are about to be getting a $2 TRILLION slush fund for their pet projects out of it.
Still, I’m leaning toward fool.
The West should have done what South Korea did: test everyone, trace the contacts of those who tested positive, and then quarantine just those people and their contacts. If we had done that there would have been no need for such an extended quarantine. Unfortunately we missed our opportunity. The time to put this plan into action would have been January when the first COVID-19 cases arrived in the US. Now there are simply too many cases for this to be practical. Politicians , both Dem AND GOP, have a lot to answer for.
For those who are interested here is an updated interactive graph:
You can compare various US states or the US with other countries, toggle between linear and logarithmic mode, and scroll down to see adjustments for population.
There is no evidence to support a belief that Covid-19 is somehow spreading like wildfire or that there are millions of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases.
Yesterday there were about 68,000 cases of coronavirus in the US. Today there are about 81,000. That's an increase of 13,000 in one day. Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Take a look at the graphs at the link. Looks like an exponential curve to me.
The 2 million figure assumed we would do nothing. With the quarantine and social distancing the projected figure should be lower.
Looks that way to me also. I've been graphing the spread of Covid-19 since Mar. 12. What it does NOT look like is a disease that is spreading widely with only a relative handful of cases becoming serious. It looks like a disease that is spreading from focal hotspots.
There are actually government plans for dealing with a pandemic. They take into account the actual mechanisms of disease spread. If you isolate people, they cannot spread a virus. Toilet paper has nothing to do with that.
You missing the fear mongering!!!
GREAT POST!!!
How many cases of the flu do you think we could stop every year by shutting our entire economy down??? We have far more than 2 million cases of the flu each year!! Many, many of our elderly and immune compromised pass of complications related to the flu every year do we shut our entire economy down???
Today we have almost 82,000 cases of coronavirus. Yesterday we had 68,000. Does the flu generally increase by 13,000 cases in a single day? CV has a death rate of 3.4% vs 0.1% for the flu. When you consider the population of the US that makes quite a bit of difference in the number of deaths.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-flu-mortality-rates-2020-3
If we open up the economy prematurely the death rate will more than wipe out any economic gain. Do you think Italy’s economy is in a good place right now? We have overtaken Italy and China in number of cases. And the fatality rate only gets higher once the ICUs are overloaded. Healthy young people who would survive with proper medical care end up dying.
I am not among the high-risk population but my parents are. If they get infected I’d like there to be beds, ventilators, and trained staff available for them.
I’d like to get back to work and go to the gym without worrying about spreading CV but we don’t always get what we want. I have lost a fair bit of money myself in the stock market but I refuse to jeopardize my health or my parents’ lives just so Wall Street can run more smoothly and incumbent politicians can pat themselves on the back. You have to be alive to enjoy your livelihood.
13,000 should be 14,000.
The cases of the flu would increase by 13,000 IF the MSM had people in complete hysteria running to the hospital to be tested!! When people get the flu they go home and get well SO if everyone getting the flu were tested then YES the cases would absolutely go up 13,000 in a day!!!! The fact is the expected numbers are no where near what they were predicted to be on the ground!!! This virus is no where near as dangerous as these so called model makers predicted!!!
Do you worry about your elderly parents being infected with a very bad case of the flu YOU SHOULD BE it is just as dangerous for the elderly to get complications from the flu!!! Why are you worrying more about giving your parents this virus???
I think the dire outlook if you are really sick and cannot get some of the malaria drug is what makes it the monster it is.
The ONLY place the health care system is overwhelmed is NY, I am in CA. we have 2600 cases in a population of 40 million and you would think the world was coming to an end!! Washington State had several cases and deaths there healthcare system was NOT overwhelmed!! The hysteria CREATED over this by the media has overwhelmed the hospitals EVERYONE is running to the hospital thinking they are going to die!! This whole damn thing has become a lie started by some modeling program and thrown the entire country into hysteria by the media!!
OK we have tested 550,000 people to date we now have 80,000 cases positive SO we have 470,000 negative tests you make the judgement!!!
Why are you worrying more about giving your parents this virus???
Several reasons. 1) My parents, like most elderly people, get a flu shot every year. There is no vaccination against coronavirus yet. 2) As I mentioned earlier, the death rate is higher than for the flu. and 3) Coronavirus is more easily transmitted than the flu. A person infected with coronavirus will infect, on average 2 to 3 other people, while a flu patient will infect an average of 1.3 people. That may not seem like a huge difference but multiply it by the 80,000+ cases we currently have and you're looking at a lot of new CV infections coming up. https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
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