Coronavirus mapping site's predictions 'have fallen short‘

World Net Daily ^ | March 25, 2020 | WND Staff

[fwdude]

A major source of information upon which government leaders have relied to urge or order the canceling of public events, shut down of businesses and sheltering in place has proved to be inaccurate.

The Federalist's Madeline Osburn points out many members of the media and state officials are relying on an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now.

The site, with a map of catastrophic forecasts for each state, boasts of enabling "political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling."

"But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now's predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister," Osburn wrote.

[flulujah]

Do we know how many people those 420,000 tests make up? I heard initially that they needed multiple tests per person.

[flulujah]

“Be careful about using worldometers, it is run by nobody knows who in Pudong Shanghai. Why do they have no public face? Who runs it? Weirdly secretive.”

Suspicion is good advice. But I do want to note that - at least on the US State page - sources are provided.

[gbunch]

And now the “brains” behind the Imperial College model, on which CoVidActNow (and a lot of paranoia) is based, has declared a huge public “OOPS!” and revised his doomsday predictions downward by a factor if TWENTY-FIVE!

So 500,000 predicted deaths are now 20,000, and instead of 18 MONTHS of lockdown, now he says 2-3 weeks will do the trick.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3828596/posts

[whershey]

There are still a lot of people still not being tested. My sister who is a nurse and doctors wife has been sick for a week. The wouldn’t test her until was sick enough to be on oxygen. Today her O2 saturations got down to 90-92. They finally tested her and did the scans needed and she does have Covid, The point is we are still not testing as much as we should.

[fwdude]

WND didn’t “steal” the article if they cited the source.

WND is a whole heck of a lot more conservative than The Federalist. I’d much rather throw clicks their way than a marginally conservative racket.

[lepton]

Their info seems very generally accurate, it may be a legit site, but one has to consider that being accurate 99.9% of the time and inserting an occasional inaccuracy could be a way to seriously mislead.

---

I have found it nearly identical to the Johns-Hopkins site - however I also found that they mistakenly categorized all of those (212) from the Diamond Princess as recovered when they were released to the US and Australia (And 3 others to their home countries) to go into quarantine.

[lepton]

I heard initially that they needed multiple tests per person.

---

Initially, tests were reportedly done in pairs to reduce false results. Many throat tests early in the disease cycle were negative even with symptoms. A few days later they were retested, and were positive. Then when symptoms abey for a few days, they retest to clear.

[ArmstedFragg]

I’ve been following to the degree possible the statistical impact of delayed testing. The definition of a case includes all those who test positive, meaning there are two ways a sudden increase in cases can occur: first through a growing infection level, or second through a growing level of discovery of those previously infected caused by an increased number of tests. It’s beginning to look like this has been with us since January but was largely undetected or misclassified until testing became widespread.

The media has had a tendency to classify all new cases as the product of the disease spreading. That produces dramatic numbers, but I don’t think it accurately describes what’s going on. So far, I haven’t found a solid source for numbers of tests.

Didn’t see your earlier posts, so I don’t know your results. Hope things are going okay for you. I’ve been through that anxiety while waiting for test results on a serious condition, and know it’s not fun.

[DoughtyOne]

I’m doing good here, and the testing I mentioned was another family member. I’ve not been tested.

Your take on things is accurate > IMO.

Discovery is what drives numbers. People have to come forward and be tested, or hospitalized to be counted.

We’ll never know about the mild cases. This will swing the number in the direction of the most dire conclusions.

[momincombatboots]

Nice scaremongering. Tell me, what is the geographic size of the “countries” you are comparing us to? Italy? France? If you think living in the US will kill you, leave.
The truth is, The highest deaths are concentrated in urban areas... green transportation. It is coming to rural areas, but much slower, until it hits.

[ArmstedFragg]

Closest thing I’ve seen to a stat that doesn’t have multiple interacting variables is “deaths per million” on a national basis. U.S. is near the lowest along with Germany and the UK. All in single digits.

[Taxman]

Testing ramping up, is it?