Posted on 03/17/2020 8:06:56 PM PDT by RomanSoldier19
So what did Cuomo and DeBlasio do wrong? I don’t think it’s this bad anywhere else.
It’s at 19% because they are mostly testing sick people including the very sick who were already hospitalized and suspected of having it.
But there has to be thousands of infected people who are not included in that number because it’s been nearly impossible to get tested in NYS for the past month.
Once testing becomes more available all these high percentages will go down
It’s been hard to get tested if you don’t have the symptoms, and you haven’t come into contact with a known case or area. Things are undoubtedly more wild now, but nationally (mostly NYC and Washington State), only 40% of identified cases were community-spread as of last Monday, so a large multiplier is likely to be only recent.
Today I heard that about half of head colds are corona virus, and half are rhinovirus.
They’ve all gotten millions of dollars over more than a decade to prepare for such a contingency.
They’ve also been paid to close hospitals and medical schools to train fewer doctors (one of two major Hillary-care initiatives, made even more prevalent with the ACA).
I work in an industry where I deal, face to face, with Chinese clients every day. 2 1/2 weeks ago I believed I showed many of the symptoms and called the state hotline to see if I could get tested. I was told no, since my symptoms were mild. Since then 2 other co worker have the same symptoms that I do. No testing for them either.
That should be done. Sort of like ‘polling’ the population.
This has been unfolding so fast and the sick take so relatively long to recover that little solid data has been available. Some of the attempts so far were in the sample size of 12 to 30 infected range. If we could trust China’s figures, we are looking at about 4-5% fatalities. That said, China still has about 8k listed as still sick despite few new cases within the past 3 weeks, and the number dying in these end cases has been over the 4.0%.
For the rest of the world, we’re still in the early expansion range where fatalities are overstated because it takes longer to recover than to die. It’s been hanging in there at an illusory 30-35% for more than a week.
In the US we’ve begun to move from the first death lag phase where people are sick, but haven’t begun to die yet (WA nursing home excepted), where the fatality rate is understated, into the recovery-lag phase, where the fatality rate is greatly over-stated.
South Korea has been testing everyone, so their baseline numbers will likely be pretty close at the end. Currently they are running about a 5.5% fatality rate for resolved cases, with only 18.3% resolved.
Because of these lags, anything less than cohort studies is going to be off, especially for a while.
New York City has several of the largest areas in the USA where ethnic Chinese live. This probably explains the early rise in the numbers of infected. How many of them had people come there from China since December?
This is WAAAY outside one little ethnic group.
They didn’t use this test. Listening to the press conference now, it sounds like they may be moving to a self-swab test, which would be great.
Even on the cooped up cruise ship there was nothing close to full infection or super high mortality.
About 60% of those infected are reported as not recovered yet, even all this time later.
You certainly do have a point, but it is rather more limited than it might appear at first glance.
It’ll be an interesting study, especially considering that as noted above the ship procedures were set up to deal with outbreaks of various diseases and are generally successful. It could be a lot of infection, or it could be surprisingly little when considering the actual conditions and events.
I still interpret that as states shouldn’t wait for the federal governments ventilators to arrive if they need them now but should source their own if they can get it until the fed supply chain is setup.
Some STATES wildly misinterpreted pretty clear language.
Nah - Some MEDIA outlets misinterpreted it.
Interesting. Of course those have long been sent through the mail for other stuff.
I work in an industry where I deal, face to face, with Chinese clients every day. 2 1/2 weeks ago I believed I showed many of the symptoms and called the state hotline to see if I could get tested. I was told no, since my symptoms were mild. Since then 2 other co worker have the same symptoms that I do. No testing for them either.
2.5 weeks ago could well be this disease, or it could be the that flu. Overall, still probably the flu, but of course your individual circumstances may go in the face of that. It’ll be good when they get the serum tests working. That checks for antibodies to see if you’ve ever had it.
I’ve had the flu. It wasn’t the flu.
I heard an interview with one of the passengers this morning. He caught it, but his wife did not.
Time to get the military involved setting up the MASH hospitals that were discussed the other day. Looks like NY is going to get whacked hard.
Me, too. Lol
Almost 70. You?
Two cases reported in Will County, IL near me, and a senior citizens home in Willowbrook, IL about 7 miles from me also reporting cases this morning.
Dammit, it's closing in on me......
I sent you a link that gives a lot of information about the ships.
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