Posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have
(Excerpt) Read more at facebook.com ...
“It’s all bull sh!t. Move along.”
I didn’t read beyond the part that was posted. None of that text got to the ‘sobering math’ so I classify the author as a blabbermouth.
Maybe there’s good stuff in there but I’ll look elsewhere for “sobering math”.
I guess we now include Trump in that category - because he believes the math.
I don't see it. In fact, I expect this crisis will come to a head over generational differences. Why should 20-30 somethings just beginning their families and careers sacrifice their futures for the sake of Boomers? They already pay the tax bills to support SS/MCare, they already live in a world established to cater to Boomers. Now, they must be tied to a yoke and be made to suffer & sacrifice for the relative few yet again?
I expect your argument will really start to gain traction in about ten days.
Slow fishing but I got three nice largemouth...and I didn't hear anybody screaming "...cronavirus, cronavirus..." once.
Nice.
And you’re such a nice guy, Redcitizen, like me. It’s hard to figure our sometimes. : )
Math is right. Assumptions more worst case than reality as it’s too soon to tell. Swine flu is still in estimation status.
I maintain that if we assume the mortality rate and infection rate is the same as the 2009-2010 H1N1 flu, we don’t have a problem that’s catastrophic. Here’s the final CDC report:
“From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, we estimate that approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (8868-18,306) occurred in the United States due to pH1N1. Eighty-seven percent of deaths occurred in those under 65 years of age with children and working adults having risks of hospitalization and death 4 to 7 times and 8 to 12 times greater, respectively, than estimates of impact due to seasonal influenza covering the years 1976-2001.”
Is it worse to have old people die or the young? That’s a tough question but I say older deaths are less stressful to society than young deaths. If true Covid 19 is better in that sense.
Unfortunately we tend to react to scary news when it is offered 24/7. Nothing is wrong with social distancing and simply staying home if you don’t need to work. If you do however, economics dictate otherwise.
“I guess we now include Trump in that category - because he believes the math.”
No, not at all. Trump is doing and saying everything he MUST say and not what he actually thinks. I can say exactly what I think and not pay a price but since the media created this panic with their bullsh*t hyperbole he has no choice but to go along and turn it to his benefit. And he has done a really magnificent job of that.
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext
Agree. Trump has grabbed the Rham Emanuel playbook and is scoring points like a champion.
Trump is focused on the economics, he’s delegated the virus management to Pence, which is smart.
Not only am I boomer, but I'm a born & bred Calif boomer. Do people know what that means? It means not only did I miss Viet Nam, but I grew up privileged during a period of tremendous economic wealth and prosperity in the great state of Calif. A good career, some prudent investments, with the result that 98% of Americans would consider me well off, while 99.9% would view me as rich.
Here are some other tidbits: the pill was developed 10 years before I came of age. It took that long for social mores to change. Guess what? Yeah, me and buddies took full advantage of as much sex as we wanted with no fear of child support. Drugs were relaxed and de-criminalized during the 70s. Again, one can watch the movie 'Dazed and Confused' to see the lifestyles we enjoyed.
In short, I've had a damn good run. But here's another thing: I have a 20-something son. And guess what he and his frat bros are thinking? Yeah, these boomers have got to go. It's bad enough that my continued enjoyment of all the fruits of my lucky existence continue to prop up sky high real estate prices here in my beach city.
But it's made even worse that they - their generation - are being called upon to make additional sacrifices so that me and my fellow boomers can have one last blow-off party. Hint: It ain't gonna continue. This national discussion is going to come to a head.
Nope. If we test a million people, we will have 10,000 false positives and needless panic. OTOH we have to test, and base the testing on objective risk.
Fine EXCEPT for QE2
All Quiet on the Western Front
Like I said, i suspect about ten more days are all we are gonna get. Looking at the numbers it’s doable but it’s gonna get messy.
Or, if 86% of cases are unknown and still at large and have been for some time, then we can also estimate how many have had the virus and recovered. Which can mean it is hardly as deadly as warned, except to elderly.
Early in the post the author genuflects to Google COO Sheryl Sandberg. I stopped reading at that point. If he thinks she’s deserving of any respect whatsoever he’s clueless.
Snort.
Real doubling time (2 days or 3 days or 4 days) will not be known until testing rate catches up with infection rate. Until then, the rate of new cases will simply be a reflection of increased testing rate. In other words, more people found to be infected because more people were tested.
SURE! ;-) Because Trump has ALWAYS been afraid to say what he thinks - and he has always been afraid of what the media thinks of him.
Your cognitive dissonance is astounding.
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