Posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have
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We seem to be in a catch 22 situation. We either destroy our economy with extreme restrictions on travel and commerce or we accept the death of 1-5% of our population. Having millions of loved ones die a painful death is awful to contemplate but losing our livelihoods and our children’s economic future is just as terrible.
In the long run, the social distancing is not sustainable. Business and life must carry on. The question is how long will we keep it up, how much damage we do to our economy and society to protect the weak and infirm.
I worry for my parents and in-laws that all have multiple age and illness indicators saying they will likely die if they catch this virus. I worry for my own and my children’s economic future as the company I work for and the money I have invested sufferers staggering losses.
The best hope is for a vaccine double quick. The vaccine will never be a permanent solution as the virus mutates rapidly, but once our immune systems have experience fighting the novel aspects of this Coronavirus subsequent infections will be less virulent and survival odds will greatly improved. But it needs to be quick as economic losses are already mounting and further restrictions bring greater costs.
Funny. In 35 years I can’t remember meeting a doctor who was “looking for overtime”.
there was an article on FR earlier today-
Oh brother you've bought the hype.
Imagine that there are a million people out there now in this country, who got exposed, had no symptoms at all.
The questions are:
1. Were they ever able to transmit the disease?
2. If they have no symptoms, did their immune systems even try to kill the virus?
3. If not, is the virus still living in all these people?
I guess that is the risk, millions of people who will forever be carriers. No amount of temporary distancing helps with that.
On the other hand, I am positive this is not the case, because if there were a million people out their now who could infect others, we’d have 10-100 times more reports by now of people infected with symptoms.
Unless, that is, that 98% of us are actually immune from this virus.
Which could be true. Rather than a slow-moving virus killing 2% of the population, we have a fast-moving virus that went through millions of people who were not impacted at all, and we are only seeing the results from those 2%, of which 2% of the 2% are dying.
We won’t know, until or unless we run random testing. Assuming we can test for people who had the virus, but beat it, and never had symptoms — and I don’t think the test finds those people, we are not testing for antibody protection now, we are looking for the actual virus.
BTW, the 2% theory would explain China. A billion people, all of whom should have been at high risk because of their circumstances. Millions of poeple traveling around, an epicenter with millions of people living there, and millions that came and went, and millions that fled.
If you believe CHina Numbers:
80,000 cases, 21 new ones a day, 3300 deaths.
In other words, Wuhan had a population of 11 million, china a population of 1.3 billion, 80,000 cases. If you assumed NO transmission out of wuhan, that’s .7% of the population of wuhan that got the virus. If 98% of their population was immune, and 50% of the non-immune got it, that would be : 110,000 infected, and if 2% of them died, 4400 deaths.
THis is all just speculative numbers. But the math works — you can argue that China’s numbers point to a 98% immunity with less than 50% spread and 2% death only among the non-immune.
Let’s look at italy. 60 million people. 98% immune means a possibility of 1.2 million impacted, with a 50% RATE that is 600,000 people, with 12,000 dead.
Current Italy numbers, which clearly are going up: 31,000 infected, 2500 dead. If the numbers quadruple before stopping, they will be well below the 600,000 infected and 12,000 dead. Lets see if that is the case.
While there are some indications that the virus “can survive” on some surfaces, there is no evidence that it can be spread from those surfaces for more than a couple of hours at most.
And a simple wipe with disinfectant solves that problem. Gyms are doing this, at least they were until they were closed.
The recent benchmark is 58,000. “Trump has killed more people than the Viet Nam War”. I can see that headline in the NY Slimes now. Recent wars in the interval may have driven that down further.
Many more examples....
Media and the Dims...spreading what they spread.
Sadly many FR's doing the same...
So, was the link helpful?
Yeah I got lots of cows. Been around those hides all my life.
You know what is dumber than a cow..... People that own them.....lol
BTW a I got an email with this same BS (same arguments including the 5th grade arithmetic) except it was "written by a doctor from the Cleveland Clinic" .
1. No, I'm not a Biden fan.
2. I'm so happy for you that one of your "Bernie Bros" thought enough of you that he sent this article to you in an email.
3. Sorry that "the fifth grade math" confused you.
4. I probably should not have posted this since so few people are capable of thoughtful discussions without reacting like little girls.
5. Stop whining. It's unbecoming.
You got a point.
I think I will go kick the crap out of them.
I made my weekly Walmart run today (No, didn’t buy TP). Trying to be a good little sheep and comply with all recommendations, I asked the gal running the register if she would scratch my nose for me since I’ve been told I can’t do it.
She said she read the guidelines a little differently.
Well, at least I tried.
Well....don’t know about that. I’ve made a lot of money off them doggies.......
People like you will tank the economy, people will lose their businesses because a disease is going around. Not that people on the public dole care. Guess what , people dying happens every day. Quit spreading gossip like a middle school girl.
Quit spreading gossip like a middle school girl.
FEMA isolation camps for Wu Flu pumpers are really not a bad idea in my book. Better them locked up than everybody else under defacto house arrest and a cratered economy to boot.
Australian scientists map how immune system fights the virus. This will lead to quicker cures. Also, doctors can tell if you’ll recover quickly to determine whether to hospitalize.
I have looked through the published statistics and I am pretty confident my wife, children and I will come out of this just fine health wise. Argue about the denominator and what it means for the death rate all you want but the data clearly say the sick and the elderly are at significant risk.
I find it somewhat humorous that you are telling me how I have “bought the hype” while most others are telling me I am not taking it seriously enough. That tells me I must be somewhere close to the truth.
I realize this is serious, but it is being overblown...IMO.
The real lasting impact after the virus dies off...the global economy.
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