Posted on 03/16/2020 7:36:24 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer
“When you look at the projections, there’s every chance that we could be Italy.”
What does “every chance” mean?
“projections” plural
What are the projections?
Do the projections have a wide range of possible outcomes?
What are the worst case, average case and best case scenarios?
I suspect that if we were given all the data on all the projections we would see possible infection totals between thousands and hundreds of thousands (maybe millions) and totals deaths with a similar wide range.
Someone “leaked” a CDC projection of 1.7 million deaths in a worst-case scenario.
I suppose they have to game out every scenario.
But worst-case is rarely what happens in the real world.
Sessions is a very valid point.
However, lately it seems the people who are nervous or outright afraid of the current events are pointing out each case, each death, and hundreds of charts. They are sure this is it. Widespread death.
On the other hand, the people that are not in a panic and keeping their cool, remaining calm about the Wuhan Virus are under the belief that EVERYTHING AND EVERYBODY is out to get Trump and ruin his re-election. I’m waiting for the FLOTUS to be accused of treason next.
That’s what I see these days.
No it’s shows that we aren’t Italy. Their death was 2/3 higher then ours 2 weeks in.
I agree we are not Italy. Every country is different in terms of genetics, resources, speed of response, demographics, on and on.
One thing is for sure, comparing the published data about number of cases, incubation period, morbidity and mortality is very difficult. Nobody really knows for sure and predictions require a number of assumptions that may or may not hold up.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst!
Italy/USA reported deaths days 1-16
1/1
2/6
3/9
7/11
11/12
12/15
17/19
21/22
29/26
41/30
52/38
79/41
107/49
148/57
197/68
233/70
Italians are always hugging and kissing.
I’ll bet you won’t see Italian rates of infection in cold-hearted Germany.
I thought we were a week behind. Are we losing ground?
~1,800 deaths in Italy so far from Coronavirus. In 2009-2010, we experienced 9,000 - 18,000 deaths from H1N1 and we never shut down a business, a school or every sporting event. 30,000 Americans will die from the flu this year and no one bats an eye.
This is a coup by pandemic. We are willingly allowing our economy to be destroyed by those who will do and say anything to effect the demise of our president. If we shut down the economy for two weeks, the media will find a way to scare us into extending it for a month, then two months, for the children. Once collapse is achieved, we will hold an election.
The comparison is more specious as the data gets deeper.
One factor affecting the country's death rate may be the age of its population — Italy has the oldest population in Europe, with about 23% of residents 65 or older, according to The New York Times. The median age in the country is 47.3, compared with 38.3 in the United States, the Times reported. Many of Italy's deaths have been among people in their 80s, and 90s, a population known to be more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19, according to The Local....
Often, as testing expands within a community, more mild cases are found, which lowers the overall death rate, Gordon said. This was the case in South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests and found a fatality rate of 0.6%, according to Business Insider. - https://www.livescience.com/why-italy-coronavirus-deaths-so-high.html
From which we also have this reveling insight from 2018:
Americans who knew something about Italy used to nod knowingly when I’d tell them the National Health Service was going from bad to worse,
Mario Monti.. installed to take over from Berlusconi as Prime Minister, who proceeded to force austerity with a vengeance on Italian regions in deficit, which meant most of them. Poof! there went the hospital beds, and the staffing, leaving patients amassed on gurneys in emergency room halls. Mario did more damage to ordinary Italians’ health care in one year than Silvio had in seventeen.
The right-wing League and the no-wing Five-Star Movement, the two parties currently – and improbably – sharing power, have made rosy joint promises to restore funding for the public medical sector, fight corruption, and improve services. Plus promising their constituents everything from earlier retirement to a guaranteed minimum income.
But it’s all pie in the sky, based on a magic trick....When they cobbled together a government, each party stuck to its own promises, despite the glaring contradiction between taking in less and spending more. - http://www.stethoscopeonrome.com/2018/12/warning-politics-may-be-bad-for-your.html
Just give me 2 weeks more to prove that we all will die in 2 more weeks.
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