Posted on 03/15/2020 11:30:14 PM PDT by dangus
When plotted on a logarithmic graph, the graph of the number of cases of an epidemic usually reaches a certain angle, and then eventually begins to flatten out. That brings a HUGE sigh of relief to those in charge of managing an outbreak, and begins when the PERCENT increase in the number of cases declines. You'll very likely continue to have more and more new cases for a while, and you'll certainly have more and more total cases.
So, the $100 trillion question is: Is the curve flattening? Through March 8, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States increased an average of well over 40% per day. On March 9, however, there were scarcely more NEW coronavirus cases than on March 8... but on March 10, the number popped again, with 45% more cases, or almost double the number of new cases (289 from 148). But then, the number of new cases dropped again on March 11 (271). That was only 29% more cases than the day before.
March 12 and March 13 saw higher growth rates again (33% and 35%). But on March 14, the growth rate slowed to 30%. And yesterday, the growth rate dropped again, to just 23%.
Now, I should note that I'm using Wikipedia's collation of the 50 states' departments of health. This differs from Johns Hopkins U.'s ARCGIS page. But I've fact-checked Wikipedia's citations and compared their count to previous days, so I know that even if Wikipedia counts new cases more slowly, I'm comparing apples to apples when I report that the growth rate has gone down... although it seems highly possible that the growth rate could end up being recorded in Wikipedia as slightly higher, and perhaps high enough that we don't quite manage fewer cases than the previous date.
I should also note that data like this is noisy, meaning it takes some time to be sure whether a decrease in the growth rate is going to be a part of a continuing trend. And changes in the data may not reflect real changes. For instance, a surge in testing could cause a surge in the number of cases identified even after the true growth rate has slowed.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BATTLE IS OVER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. This is not about possibly only getting 5,000 or 6,000 cases... this is about whether we get hundreds of thousands of cases or tens of millions.
Now, I've seen from several people on Facebook a comparison on the spread of Coronavirus in the U.S. to the spread in Italy. We've gotten to 3,500 cases faster than Italy! Well, we're five times the size of Italy, so that shouldn't be surprising. But what makes the case in Italy so shocking is that 7% of the people who get coronavirus die of it. So far in the U.S., that's only about 1%, and much lower still if you don't include the Seattle cluster. So there's probably something deeply wrong with the Italian system that isn't showing up in ours.
Do everything you're supposed to: Stay out of crowds... obey the authorities (for now) (unless you can receive the Eucharist on the down-low somehow :-) )... don't go out clubbing... Make sure the older people you have are well provisioned... help the homeless to some clean food... But please, don't panic.
“Sometimes, a pandemic is just a panic”
“Pandemic” is a great headline word because embedded in it is the message “Panic”.
The more time the virus lingers, the more time the virus is able to mutate into something different.
Outstanding!
No, the curve is not flattening yet. The nice doctor lady on tv told us that with the release of ALL THE NEW TESTS the numbers would go waaaaaaayyyyy up and not to get scared. THEN the numbers will flatten out.
The UK left the EU because it was ceding too much of its sovereignty to Brussels. The European Parliament makes a lot of decisions for EU members. The EU is far more than a “loose confederation.” They even have their own EU flag.
Also, you seem to have missed a bit of my sarcasm. Why aren’t these countries helping their neighbor and fellow EU member? When the chips are down, it seems it is every man for himself. If Canada were experiencing what Italy is going through now, you can bet the US would help. Europe and the EU are showing their true colors in this crisis. Not pretty.
Happy St Patrick’s day to everyone tomorrow!
Your chart is nuts.
It starts on April 24.
What’s today’s date?
“The curve flattens?”
The only way the curve has been flattened for other countries was by taking drastic steps to control the spread of the virus.
The countries that thought ‘happy talk’ and ‘increased liquidity’ (whatever that crap means) would stop the virus aren’t having any luck.
...so be ready for drastic steps, since our ‘happy talk’ phase is about concluded.
I believe these numbers because I am a statistician. The Chinese numbers don’t have the obvious flaws on the Iranian numbers, and they follow the patterns that one would expect from their mandatory quarantine. Would you put out numbers to your own people claiming no cases in a province if it was not true?
The bigger problem would be the lack of medical personnel. As Fauci said on Fox News Sunday, no country would be prepared for a worst case scenario. We already have a doctor and nurse shortage.
The shortage of hospital beds to meet a possible huge calamity such as this is understandable. The costs of maintaining a surplus in the eventuality of a crisis would be prohibitive and impact the profitability of the hospital. We can surge medical assistance to various areas of the country, but not nationwide in a case like this.
I look at the CV as a political creation by those Internationalists who hate President Trump because he is in the process of blowing the bridge in front of their gravy train. Any stick will do when you want to beat a dog.
This CV, or COVIT19... probably has been around for many months. A great many people have had it and just wrote it off to the flu, heavy workouts, colds, whatever. No kids get it, none have died, old men with bad health have a mortality rate lower then the common flu, which has killed way more people in the US this year than CV has killed in the world. Some evil people will pee down your neck and tell you it's raining.,, try to determine the difference. Three more months and there will be another different scare to get Trump.
South Korea provides the most likely scenario for the trajectory of the virus here. They are on the downside of the Bell curve in about 8 weeks.
‘For God hath not given us the spirit of fear...’
The number of tests given is going to go up to potentially the millions by the end of the week. By that time, we will have a better picture. The number of cases may spike like crazy when these tests first roll in. But, then watching the curves will be insanely accurate from there forward.
I disagree. Italy caused Italy.
COVID-19 has been raging in northern Italy for almost two weeks.
Does it not strike you as odd that Italy's northern neighbors - Switzerland, Germany, and Austria - have a total death toll of 28?
Austria CFR - 0.12%
Germany CFR - 0.22%
Switzerland CFR - 0.64%
Except for France, U.K., and Holland, all the other Northern European countries have a CFR of 1.0% or lower.
Even South Korea is down to 0.92%.
Also important, I am not aware of any healthy adults who have died in the USA, Canada, or northern Europe.
Protect the elderly and the infirm, and the death toll will collapse.
Re: “CV is new. No immunity, no vaccine, every case is a new first-time exposure.”
The generic corona virus has been the #2 cause of the common cold for decades.
This particular iteration of corona is new.
My theory - in many countries, COVID-19 is mutating itself into a bad cold instead of a deadly killer.
Agreed. With the advantaged of treatment and isolation, plus global warming (in the Northern Hemisphere), we could be doing very well in under 8 weeks.
I have been arguing that there is encouraging data in almost every country except China, Italy, Spain, and Iran.
Thanks in advance for taking my name off the hit list.
No, I wasn’t lecturing you, just agreeing with you.
Agree. Good info. I was told last month the world was going end to in a week due to Wu Flu. That obviously didn’t happen. The panic mongers have already oversold their goods.
We’re looking at no worse than bad flu-swine flu type event here in the US. Bad. Terrible for those personally effected. But the medical issues pale compared to the economic carnage needlessly inflicted on the American people by Democrats and Wu Flu hobbyists.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.