The curve flattens?

50 states' health departments as collected by Wikipedia, with Wiki's accuracy confirmed by me | 3-15-20 | Dangus

[dangus]

Sometimes, a pandemic is just a panic, with a dem in the middle of it.

[Mount Athos]

Unfortunately the curve can bend the other way again, as already happened when it changed from chinese disease to spreading pandemic.

[Paladin2]

"obey the authorities"

Really?

They are mostly elected or appointed by Soviet Socialists like Bernie.

[dangus]

>> Unfortunately the curve can bend the other way again, as already happened when it changed from chinese disease to spreading pandemic. <<

ehhhhhhh.... that was jumping into new populations... kinda misses the point.

[Williams]

The numbers are meaningless because testing is spotty.

So far the good thing is not that many deaths and no overwhelming of the health systems.

[gnarledmaw]

The Italian system is overwhelmed. Medical professionals are working until they drop. Some people are not getting any care.

In a bad situation like that people that could have been saved die instead.

That’s why they are trying to get people here to flatten the curve. No spike should mean a much smaller number of deaths than what will happen if the system is overwhelmed.

[jonrick46]

I think Italy’s big problem is the single-payer medical system, which lacks the flexibility to fight the increase in cases. When you read that people are being turned away from treatment, that is a red flag that something is gone wrong. Starting from the beginning, their medical system didn’t respond to the virus in its early infections. It showed an awkward, irresponsive, clumsy system inherent in government run medical systems. It stands as a warning to America to not go the route that people like Bernie Sanders want.

[TChad]

Thanks for the possibly very good news.

There should be some way to get that info without having to do all that work. But maybe there is not, so please keep posting.

[Mount Athos]

It's not missing the point, it is exactly the point. There are lots of unexposed populations in the US. If it helps, as a thought exercise think of each state in the USA as a separate country. Alaska just got their first case. Look at this chart between may 6 and may 10 of world wide cases. The curve was flattening, then it resumed steeper than ever as it spread to new pops. Am I saying this will happen? Am I being alarmist? No, I'm just pointing out that a flattening can go the other way in a hurry. I hope all the countermeasures will work.
Look also at what happened with "patient 31" in south korea... One person made the rate of new case increase by 2000% in one week

https://www.rokdrop.net/2020/02/how-patient-31-spread-the-coronavirus-in-south-korea/

[angry elephant]

Here in Washington state the testing is huge. We are up to 10,000 tested with only 100 per day testing positive.

We were testing 1000 per day with 100 positive and now it is 2500 per day with 100 positive per day testing positive.

To me, that is flattening.

[plymaniac]

Sometimes, a pandemic is just a panic, with a dem in the middle of it.

You have my vote for Quip of the Year. Very well done!

[Paladin2]

Can’t we fly the Italian overflow to Burlington and then out to Bernie’s Camp Compound on the Lake?

[TexasGator]

Try googling ...

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

Any extrapolation of historic trends becomes invalid, when contributing or mitigating factors change. We should expect kinks in the curve, as new measures (travel restrictions, venue closing, etc.) take effect.

[xkaydet65]

The curve will go up when testing becomes readily available. Likely that many many cases will be discovered among people who had or have only mild symptoms. That will be when the nation wide lockdown and quarantines begin.

[Widget Jr]

The curve is possibly flattening out. Look at the chart of daily cases, labeled actual/logarithmic/daily cases chart. Overall the trend is leveling out, even if the data from China is suspect. Outside of China, there is a spike in new cases that will hopefully level out in a few days.

[McGruff]

Leading Causes of Death

Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017

And how many Corona virus deaths so far?

[wardaddy]

And a whole lot of freepers you may have noticed

[dangus]

Between May 6 and May 10? What disease is this tracking... and again, you are looking at a global dataset. Also, you’re looking at the wrong curve, when you say cases flattened between May 6 and May 10... you’re looking at death rate, which, having so few cases (dozens instead of thousands) is going to be inherently extremely noisy.

And yes, you have unexposed people... that’s the whole point of the curve... cases increase as the infections saturate a population. But New York and Massachusetts are much more related populations than Washington and Wuhan.