Posted on 03/12/2020 4:03:48 PM PDT by Kazan
A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.
Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton said at a press conference alongside Gov. Mike DeWine (R) that given that the virus is spreading in the community in Ohio, she estimates at least 1 percent of the population in the state has the virus.
"We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," Acton said. "We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."
She added that the slow rollout of testing means the state does not have good verified numbers to know for sure.
"Our delay in being able to test has delayed our understanding of the spread of this," Acton said.
The Trump administration has come under intense criticism for the slow rollout of tests. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top National Institutes of Health official, acknowledged earlier Thursday it is "a failing" that people cannot easily get tested for coronavirus in the United States.
Not everyone with the virus has symptoms, and about 80 percent of people with the virus do not end up needing hospitalization, experts say. However, the virus can be deadly especially for older people and those with underlying health conditions.
The possible numbers in Ohio are a stark illustration of how many cases could be in other states as well, but have not been revealed given the lack of widespread testing.
More than 1,300 people in the U.S. have currently tested positive for the illness, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, while about three dozen people in the country have died.
Vice President Pence, who is overseeing the administration's coronavirus response, said earlier Thursday that the U.S. can expect "thousands of more cases."
Ohio officials said they are taking major actions to try to slow the spread of the virus. They are closing schools in the state for three weeks and banning large gatherings of 100 or more people.
The state currently has just five confirmed positive cases, and 30 negative tests. Acton said Thursday that it appears that the number of cases of the virus doubles every six days.
As other experts have as well, she urged actions to slow the spread of the virus to avoid overwhelming the capacity of hospitals. Banning large gatherings and stopping school is part of that process.
"We're all sort of waking up to our new reality," she said, adding later that the state is "in a crisis situation."
Noting the concerns about hospital capacity if the number of cases spikes too quickly, Acton said "there are only so many ventilators," referring to machines that allow people to breathe when they cannot on their own.
Models indicate the number of cases could peak in late April to mid-May, she said.
If people are not seriously ill, she urged them to stay home so that only the sickest people who most need help are showing up at hospitals.
"This will be the thing this generation remembers," she added.
[So flu is already built into this system.]
The reason the coronavirus is such a big deal is that Italy has a flu season. This bug is overwhelming their resources. I assume that their doctors are freaking out because flu season doesn’t normally result in them turning their hospitals into hospices for 65-year-old and up seniors, such that these patients are left to die, and traffic accident and stroke victims alike are turned away.
This is not normal. If traffic accident victims and stroke patients can’t go to the hospital for treatment, where can they go? Hospitals aren’t coronavirus treatment specialty centers - they are medical centers that treat a variety of ailments, some of which are spur-of-the-moment problems like traffic accidents and acute cardiovascular issues.
“It was estimated 29 million had the flu this year. The number of deaths due to the flu was 20,000.”
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Projected into CV19 and using the best percentage, real world (South Korea, .5 %) that translates to 145000 dead Americans.
Also, keep in mind the flu has a vaccine that lessens it’s severity and it’s been treated for many, many years - it’s not a stranger. Against CV19, the new kid on the block, there is no defense.
In the dark aged black plague as some were dying others were immune and celebrating life.
And, you're assuming Corona won't die out in warmer weather.
“The death rate in confirmed cases in South Korea is 0.7. The actual rate is lower than that. Maybe a lot lower.”
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From your hopes to God’s ear on that
“And, you’re assuming Corona won’t die out in warmer weather?”
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North and South of the Equator.(and smack dab on the Equator)
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1yCPR-ukAgE55sROnmBUFmtLN6riVLTu3&ll=34.461409795022156%2C0&z=2A=
The hysteria that's causing havoc on our 401k's and IRA's right now, and soon business financials and employment due to all the closures, is primarily due to what people perceive as unknown(s) and an alleged "30 times" mortality rate compared with the flu. That is pure B.S. right there.
On the one hand, we are told wuhan-19 is more infectious/easier to get that influenza, and then on the other hand, we are told that there are only ~1,350 infected with it VS 34,000,000 to 49,000,000 who have/had influenza this season. Yeah, sure. It's so much easier to get, yet the infection rate after all these months is 0.003% of the flu?
The first documented case of Wuhan-19 was Dec 01, 2019. And that person was unlikely the only one with it at that time...just the first to be documented with it. That means Wuhan-19, with a ~14 day incubation period, has been around since at least November 2019, perhaps even October.
Couple that with tens of millions of travelers into our country from November 2019 to the various travel bans, and there was ample opportunity for this thing to spread around just like the flu.
Ya just can't have a more virulent virus with that much exposure, for that long of a period and have only a couple thousand with the virus. It's just impossible.
Either Wuhan-19 is far, far less virulent than influenza, OR there are far, far more who have/had Wuhan-19 in our country. The ~1,350 number is pure B.S. and this thing isn't the deadly virus that warrants the hysteria and shutdowns going on in our country.
And regarding, the WHO ("lead" by a guy who has a history of covering up disease outbreaks) is about as competent as the UN.
and I estimate that this is probably off by 999.99%.
I think they rounded up! Makes things easier, doncha know...
“ Any proof of this?”
No. But let’s not let that interrupt the demolition of the economy.
This is what in scientific circles is called a SWAG.
A Scientific Wild Assed Guess.
At least we know where our weaknesses are so we can manufacture our own stuff. Home run right there with Trump in charge.
CDC has only done 77 test since March 5th. Extreme gov’t incompetence.
True. Repatriation of critical manufacturing is a no-brainer. Let hope they remember it when this silliness settles down.
I think they rounded up! Makes things easier, doncha know...
Oh yeah the non statistical formula rounding up to prove a theory or point is a no no.
I tried that with my stat prof re my mba thesis.
His remarks were too raw to post.
But in this instance it’s OK to round up, way up, because it’s Trump’s “Katrina”.
I heard eleventy billion people have the virus!
Hmmm, 100,000 infected and no deaths? All righty then.
” Hmmm, 100,000 infected and no deaths? All righty then.”
Remember when Rush said this was just the flu?
Then it became evident it was more like the cold.
I think 100,000 is believable. It might be even higher.
In spite of all the predicted calamity this is turning out to be a dud, pandemic wise.
Ohio is making sure to define the denominator before the press starts touting the numerator. Result? Ohio will not report a high mortality rate.
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