Posted on 03/12/2020 4:03:48 PM PDT by Kazan
A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.
Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton said at a press conference alongside Gov. Mike DeWine (R) that given that the virus is spreading in the community in Ohio, she estimates at least 1 percent of the population in the state has the virus.
"We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," Acton said. "We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."
She added that the slow rollout of testing means the state does not have good verified numbers to know for sure.
"Our delay in being able to test has delayed our understanding of the spread of this," Acton said.
The Trump administration has come under intense criticism for the slow rollout of tests. Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top National Institutes of Health official, acknowledged earlier Thursday it is "a failing" that people cannot easily get tested for coronavirus in the United States.
Not everyone with the virus has symptoms, and about 80 percent of people with the virus do not end up needing hospitalization, experts say. However, the virus can be deadly especially for older people and those with underlying health conditions.
The possible numbers in Ohio are a stark illustration of how many cases could be in other states as well, but have not been revealed given the lack of widespread testing.
More than 1,300 people in the U.S. have currently tested positive for the illness, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, while about three dozen people in the country have died.
Vice President Pence, who is overseeing the administration's coronavirus response, said earlier Thursday that the U.S. can expect "thousands of more cases."
Ohio officials said they are taking major actions to try to slow the spread of the virus. They are closing schools in the state for three weeks and banning large gatherings of 100 or more people.
The state currently has just five confirmed positive cases, and 30 negative tests. Acton said Thursday that it appears that the number of cases of the virus doubles every six days.
As other experts have as well, she urged actions to slow the spread of the virus to avoid overwhelming the capacity of hospitals. Banning large gatherings and stopping school is part of that process.
"We're all sort of waking up to our new reality," she said, adding later that the state is "in a crisis situation."
Noting the concerns about hospital capacity if the number of cases spikes too quickly, Acton said "there are only so many ventilators," referring to machines that allow people to breathe when they cannot on their own.
Models indicate the number of cases could peak in late April to mid-May, she said.
If people are not seriously ill, she urged them to stay home so that only the sickest people who most need help are showing up at hospitals.
"This will be the thing this generation remembers," she added.
oh and I should have included satellites in that...
It is difficult to estimate the number of cases in the initial stages of an outbreak but Acton's estimate does seem rather large. Estimates of actual case numbers for other places like Seattle are not that large and if there are 100,000 infections around 1,000 deaths would be expected.
It would be likely that Ohio would already see significant patient counts in ICU units if they had 100,000 infections.
The first line of the article says:
A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.
Further down in the article it says:
The state currently has just five confirmed positive cases, and 30 negative tests.
So are they saying they have only tested 35 people out of 11.5 million in the state but if they tested everyone they would have 100K cases?
was in Cincinnati yesterday and today.
Well it’s been nice knowing you good folks at FR.
...
No proof, I am in Cincinnati now...all good.
It is all part of the take down...note Ohio is a swing state, that is the reason this was said.
If true, according to the existing statistics that would mean 20,000 will need to be hospitalized, with 8000 of that number needing special ICU care units.
~~~
Not if they are estimating that 100k are infected but not yet symptomatic.
Personally, i wouldn’t be surprised. I think we are going to find out later that a lot of people had mild symptoms and thought it was cold or flu.
It’s only now, that the whole thing has taken over public consciousness, that people will be questioning milder symptoms.
Would be nice if they got those millions of test kits out that Trump was promising though.
100,000 with the virus, but only 4 confirmed cases with no deaths thus far?
and banning large gatherings of 100 or more people.What about small gatherings of 100 people?
We will now have a contest between liberal states as to which State has the most Trump caused Chicom Corona Virus cases.
A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have Chicom Corona Virus.
Waiting for the next liberal state to claim more than 100,000 Chicom Corona Virus cases.
Any proof of this?
Liberals and trolls never need proof of how evil President Trump is, and how he is infecting Americans 24/7.
Any proof of this?
Liberals and trolls never need proof of how evil President Trump is, and how he is infecting Americans 24/7.
“Not if they are estimating that 100k are infected but not yet symptomatic.”
—
As i understand it, the percentages re:hospitalization are of those infected (i.e. confirmed cases). You have something different on that?
??? Where? How do they know that people did not already have it and get over it a
Over a month ago?
The schools have all shut down for three weeks.
This is the height of irresponsibility. We really need to pick better people for government.
========================================================
What is irresponsible is being told there are only 1,323 people who have/had Wuhan-19.
That's impossible.
Months of millions of travelers into our country prior to travel bans coupled with (what we are told is) a much more virulent/easier to catch virus than the flu...and there are only 1,323 with the Wuhan virus vs. 34,000,000 to 49,000,000 who have/had influenza this season?
If we had been able to test the country, the number's with Wuhan-19 would be much...much more in line with the number for influenza.
Yes. The 1% infection rate estimate is determined outside of testing. If the testing reflected the rate of infection (it doesn't, tests are only performed on symptomatic people) the rate of infection is 5/35 or about 14%, not 1%
The official didn't share the methodology she used to arrive at the 1% figure, other than in most general terms, "just the fact of community spread."
That is good news. If 100,000 have it, then pretty much the entire state has been exposed to the virus, without the kinds of mortality numbers showing up in Italy.
Before their second wave of self infections strike and destroy this poor state’s health providers.
Do second infections in the same victim count as a new or separate infection?
It's airborne and can live outside of a host for a while, so this crap is undoubtedly spread all over the world now, just like the flu.
If you feel under the weather, but not bad enough to actually go to a doctor and get tested, who's to say you did or didn't have this virus?
Nobody will ever know the true numbers. We're dealing with statistics.
I was in Cincinnati yesterday and today.
Well it’s been nice knowing you good folks at FR.
Thanks for your noble sacrifice!
This is no news at all. They just pulled that number out of the air with zip to back it up.
I’m worried about this virus, but making big numbers up is no help to anyone.
NYT doesn’t let a crisis go to waste:
12 March: NYT: Tom Hanks Got Sick in Australia, Where Coronavirus Testing Isn’t Such a Hassle
In the United States, little if anything about the testing has been efficient or convenient. In Australia, it is free and widely available
By Damien Cave
SYDNEY, Australia — Here, testing is free and widely available, thanks to early and coordinated planning for a pandemic...
Some countries, like the United States, are looking increasingly ill prepared...
Although Canada has relatively few cases so far, its testing system is also well developed...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/australia/tom-hanks-rita-wilson-coronavirus.html
try telling the above to Australians. very few are eligible for testing:
11 Mar: ABC Australia: Coronavirus guidelines ‘confusing and frustrating’ for NSW doctors
By Liv Casben
Dr McMullen said information coming from the Federal Government and different state health authorities was “confusing, frustrating and challenging”...
Yesterday, the country’s chief medical officer Brendan Murphy addressed some of the confusion around testing.
“At the moment we are not recommending people with acute, cold, flu-like symptoms, unless they are a returned traveller, or unless they are a contact of a confirmed case, be tested,” he said...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-11/coronavirus-panic-source-of-frustration-for-nsw-doctors/12043182
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