Posted on 03/12/2020 8:21:28 AM PDT by nwrep
CAUTION: Lots of statistical projections and plots in this article.
CAUTION: If you think coronavirus is the same as or no worse than the flu, you need to read this.
Key points summarized:
1. Daily new cases for the US is expected to double every 2 days as we are entering an exponential growth period.
2. By March 14, US cases will reach anywhere from 8000 to 10000.
3. Exponential growth was arrested in S. Korea and Japan by aggressive testing, containment and shutdowns.
4. There are over a 1000 undetected cases in WA state right now, based on infection multiplication statistics. Note that the total cases acknowledged in the US today is just over 1000.
5. LOW FATALITY RATES: Countries (S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan) who act quickly and institute containment, shutdown and sanitation protocols, the fatality rate is between 2-4X that of the flu.
6. HIGH FATALITY RATES: Countries who do not act quickly (Iran, Italy) and institute containment, shutdowns and sanitation protocols, the fatality rate is between 30-50X that of the flu. Worst case US estimates: 96 million cases, 480,000 deaths.
(Excerpt) Read more at medium.com ...
Fog. Nothing but fog.
Wake me in a few months. That’s all that was needed for eBola, Sars, et-al.
Everybody watching it unfold is in terror for a while, while those of us that ignore the story have life as usual. And then it’s done.
This one only matters to me because it’s not the virus that is the news for me. It is the panic that is news. The border closings, dow average, business closings etc. The disease itself is a big nothingburger - so far anyway...
Remember when we look at the data what we are looking at is sick people that tell us where the virus was 2 weeks ago. IOW the data is 2 weeks behind the asymptomatic spreaders which are likely several times more than the symptomatic ill.
One man's fog is another man's dog.
-Confucious
Next month there will be no hospital beds left.
How many of those in high risk groups or given minimum care because the health care system in their countries do not want to allocate resources to just such persons due to cost concerns?
Thank God you don’t have any real power to make big decisions :)
Neither do I.
But Trump is taking it seriously and that’s what counts.
“Fog. Nothing but fog.”
—
I agree with you that math is indeed hard to understand sometimes. But your fog doesn’t change the numbers.
“or” should read “are” dang MS brain.
Sorry, but this “deadly virus” stuff became “the boy who cried wolf” for me a while back.
This ain’t a 12 monkeys thing. It’s the flu.
Trump has to respond in this political environment. It is imperative that it “looks like” he’s doing something. He doesn’t have the luxury you or I have to do what is actually prudent.
Where are South Korea and Italy on that graph??
See the graphic at nwrep’s post #!
First lesson every conservative should adhere to is, Regardless of who is in the White House, never rely on or trust the Government.
It’s not the flu. The 2 to 4 times flu death rate is probably accurate. Perhaps a bit higher.
If I was you..I’d just off myself.
Current death toll from COVID-19: 4,751!
This is no pandemic!
Good G-d, we are allowing the Fake News and the Left to tank our economy using this non-pandemic as their vehicle! We deserve exactly what we get here!
Mass hysteria is a very scary thing!
Huh?
Our actions are not politically motivated. His have to be. He’s president.
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