Really? What kind of statistically illiterate would write that sentence? The number of confirmed cases will always grow until the virus is completely eradicated. The news is that the number of new cases has been falling for a week, and is now but a fraction of the recent levels. But to be clear to those who DIDN'T follow the link... Lipsitch didn't write that nonsense; his interviewer did.
Did you read beyond the first sentence?
I think the expert has some good points.
He also stated they didn’t know if the rate decrease was due to controls or if their ability to test was saturated.
these numbers are not the real ones. they are grossly low.
A terrified population is a compliant population. We already died from swine flu, bird flu and annual flu.
This guy needs to instill fear and if he is like the ezpert scientists that plainly published the melting of the Himalayas by 2020... well you can trust his data.
Except we really have no more reason to believe China on this than on anything else. They are now forcing companies to resume production.
China changed their definition of confirmed cases.
OR until there is nobody left to catch it. ;o)
I was shamed for talking about projections only using two weeks of information. I am not doing that here.
What I will say is that our set of numbers is small, and suspect. There is not much predictable information out there yet.
The other point, which you and I know is that the numbers we do have, suck.
My final point is the the CCP changed their definition of a “case” right about the time we started seeing a lag.
The critical and serious numbers continue to climb every day.
What I am looking for on my chart is a dip, reflecting the new definition and then it starts to climb again.
Time will tell. We are weeks away from knowing where this is going.