Posted on 02/09/2020 2:16:57 PM PST by janetjanet998
Whoa. That’s a game changer if true.
Of course you are making a comparison. You aren’t necessarily saying they are the exact same thing, but by bringing up those numbers for the flu on this thread, you are making a comparison.
10 February 2020 - Imperial College London
Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)
(Download Report 4)
Ilaria Dorigatti+, Lucy Okell+, Anne Cori, Natsuko Imai , Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe , Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Nan Hong , Min Kwun, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Steven Riley, Sabine van Elsland, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Raymond Wang, Caroline Walters , Xiaoyue Xi, Christl Donnelly, Azra Ghani, Neil Ferguson*. With support from other volunteers from the MRC Centre.1
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
J-IDEA
Imperial College London
*Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk 1 See full list at end of document. +These two authors contributed equally.
Summary Report 4
We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%).
For cases detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values.
Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%). It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries. CFRs seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases. All CFR estimates should be viewed cautiously at the current time as the sensitivity of surveillance of both deaths and cases in mainland China is unclear. Furthermore, all estimates rely on limited data on the typical time intervals from symptom onset to death or recovery which influences the CFR estimates.
Appendix data sources
Data on early deaths from mainland China: hubei_early_deaths_2020_07_02.csv
Data on cases in international travellers: international_cases_2020_08_02.csv
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...n-coronavirus/
Factories in China remain shuttered as some regions extend shutdowns amid coronavirus quarantine efforts
Ping.
Is there a feb 10 thread yet?
List of airlines that have cancelled some or all flights to China.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN2040G9
thanks~~
Some numbers say 7 will die. Then there are the ones who recovered but die of organ failure later.
No 2/10 thread, yet, that I’ve seen.
Epoch Times is way behind FR in reporting the crematoriums.
“Feb 03, 2020 3:07PM EST
Georgia is looking to recapture a good portion of the Chinese frozen chicken import market now that Beijing has dropped a ban that had been in place since early 2015 due to a US avian flu outbreak.”
“Feb 06, 2020 10:41AM EST
It’s still too early to determine the eventual impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus on global trade, but an extended shutdown of factories and transit lines to and from manufacturing centers in China could have major downstream implications for ocean carriers.”
Hong Kong - Education - HK University to remain essentially closed until March 30
Today, 08:01 AM
Hong Kong University has announced they will only do online classes in the month of March. No face-to-face classroom meetings until March 30
https://tl.hku.hk/2020/02/teaching-a...d-february-10/
new video clips, at 2min in, doctor who says he was on a team of experts, now hospitalized on o2, after watching CCPTV is saying ‘as front line doctor, I have my own opinions it is true that this is the case, but some things are not necessarily the case.’ He goes on to say that his chances of CFR are 30% !! and the clip ends
China has some bright young people but the more we see, the more it looks like China is a third-world nation with glitter when it comes to public health emergencies:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCE7jMP8fQ4
Brit fails first temp check at airport but passes followup checks, China refuses to allow exit - Brit stranded:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5ys8kKXH90
is the snow infectious?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fk_6d5xQI4
Australia’s response to coronavirus described as ‘racist and sinophobic’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czg3VlZxrTc
There's not nearly enough data to allow that, but I agree it will probably happen.
This is the week that a worldwide pandemic will be prevented or permitted to happen.
Because prevention involves the end of the global economy and the sacrifice of innocents, and the decisions are being made by politicians, bet on pandemic.
Coronavirus kills 97 in deadliest day so far. 40,171 confirmed and 908 deaths - BBC News
doubling every 3 days?
Maersk shipping. Good read on US, Australia (new regulations), Etc.
https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2020/01/27/novel-coronavirus-update
7 February 2020:
General Status
For Greater China Area, terminal operations continue vessel loading and discharge at current stage. All the warehouses, depots and offices follow instructions of local government to resume operation. The barge operation from Wuhan gradually resumes operation and backlogs in the process of being cleaned up.
Distillery is in order.
They are not expensive, and the process will kill anything not from outer space.
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