Wang Xiangwei is the former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper
Posted on 02/08/2020 6:01:36 AM PST by Oldeconomybuyer
Back on January 21 last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping told a gathering of senior officials that they must be on guard against “black swans” and “grey rhinos” which could threaten the rule of the Communist Party amid a slowing economy.
One year later, Xi’s wildlife metaphors about the dangers facing the country have proved prophetic on a more literal level.
Scientists and medical experts have pinned down bats as the probable source of the coronavirus outbreak originating from a wet market which has stalls for trading wildlife animals in Wuhan of Hubei province.
The country’s current public health crisis could threaten the party’s rule and erode the people’s trust in the authoritarian centralised system which the Chinese leaders have been plugging as the be all and end all for building up the country into the second-largest economy in the world.
It is not hard to imagine that when the outbreak is contained, the Chinese leadership will again hail the wisdom of the authoritarian model as the key to mobilising national resources to defeat the “devil” virus. Local officials in Hubei would take the blame and be punished for their slow response to the outbreak and failure to implement measures by the central government in Beijing. Just like what happened in the aftermath of the Sars outbreak more than 17 years ago.
But this time round, restoring people’s trust and confidence in the party’s “system and capacity for governance” will be a lot harder.
(Excerpt) Read more at scmp.com ...
Wang Xiangwei is the former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper
If one really wants a conspiracy theory, here is an alternative
China releases a virus, although bad, has a manageable mortality rate, rest of the world works to suppress spread, but China inoculated by wide distribution. Wait a few months, release a second virus that is much more lethal, but that infection to first virus confers immunity, distribute widely. Horror and mayhem everywhere else, but not (immune) China...
That scenario keeps me up at night...
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.
The Chinese people don’t have guns, do they?
So, Xi has relatively little to worry about vs the Gov of Va.
You left out the last scenario
Russia and the United States nuke the crap out of China
What followed The Black Death in Europe?
1/3 of the population gone. All of the sudden laborers were scarce. Many lords and landlords were gone. The serfs and peasants were in needed, they were no longer so abundant they could be regarded as a cheap disposable commodity. Wages went up, living conditions improved. Crafts, art and machinery were in demand.
The Renaissance happened.
Perhaps China will develop a Renaissance of their own, one where the Chinese people are valued and honored?
I think that is pretty hard. The current virus is working much like that scenario. Many people get the virus without getting severe symptoms. They just spread it. Then there are the 20% that get the pneumonia and one in ten of those people die.
Because most of the people who are contracting the decease and dying from it are men, you can work this conspiracy theory; the Chinese government thinks they have too many adult males because of their one child policy. So they invented a virus that attacks unhealthy people and men 50% more often than women. This will cull the herd of men, bring the population in line. And since men are more likely to participate in violent protests, the government reduces that threat as well.
Me too.
You’re thinking too much. A sure sign of intelligence, but it has its downside.
What Xi fears most is losing the Mandate of Heaven. He is no different from Shih Huang Di and all the emperors between.
For some reason I got a good laugh from that.
They don’t have guns and everyone is on camera all the time.
... You’re thinking too much. A sure sign of intelligence, but it has its downside.
Been in medicine too long and have seen too many ways to die
China has gone through population halving plagues in the past and the nature of Chinese rule has not changed from 1000 BC to the present.
Just have burnee come lecture them about the wonder of national health care.
The "Kung Flu" is far more lethal to middle-aged and older folks.
Hospitals are staffed largely by younger people so could suffer worker shortages.
These factors do not bode well for China who's fortunes rely significantly on cheap labor.
Socialism always has unexpected consequences.
Interesting take and given communism’s death toll, not entirely out of question.
China has national health care. In affected areas they are rounding up people who might be affected and putting them in army wards where they are told that they will receive no care and they may not leave. They are open wards and people can touch the beds next to them. The death rate will surely increase because of that.
The Chinese leaders have something of a conundrum on their hands. If in fact this is an escaped virus strain that had been developed in the scientific research labs, intended as a weapon, the loss of faith and trust by the Chinese people may lead to a widespread unrest much like what is happening in Hong Kong, with a much more tangible fear driving the protests. It might not matter that the Chinese civilians do not have access to guns, sheer numbers can overwhelm the most disciplined of military troops.
Quick way to turn The Middle Kingdom, into to ONLY Kingdom
Zhongguo - 中国
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