Quoth Shakespeare, there's the rub.
There are a lot of factors that go into contracting influenza vs coronavirus. For example, there are almost NO precautions we take in the US when it comes to influenza aside from extra hand washing during the flu season. That's why, in part, so many people get the flu.
If Americans adopt precautionary measures for coronavirus like not going to work, then the likelihood comes way down. I suspect the hysteria around this virus will lead to greater personal hygiene etc which will also likely keep down contaigion.
But let's have some fun with numbers: if we accept the PRC numbers (a BIG assumption) then we have 20k+ confirmed cases out of about 35MM quarantined people in cities, or a 0.06% chance of contracting coronavirus.
If we apply that 6 basis point chance to 22.5MM who sought treatment for influenza (which is more comparable to the quarantined lot), you get 13,500 people contracting coronavirus. If we apply a 2.5% fatality rate, we get 338 dead people in America.
That's bad, and as many people are saying (and I'd agree) it is prudent to take precautions and buy extra food and water etc. This is a situation worth monitoring and ignorance isn't helpful.
But 338 dead people is not 585,000 dead people. And I'm willing to wager a $10 donation to the next FReepahon that we won't see 300 or more Americans dead on our soil from coronavirus by May.
We will know in 2 weeks.
So far, containment has worked outside of China. We think.
But your numbers are old. Your math is flawed.
Look at that Japanese cruise ship. 20 positives on the first pass. 41 more on the next pass - if I am not mistaken, those people tested negative first time around. And that’s in a contained, quarantined environment, with a limited number of potential hosts. Out in the wild, the virus would spread much more rapidly.
No news out of Africa or Central America, where the Chinese have a significant presence. I wonder what’s going on there.
In the end, “oh, it’s just another flu” is going to look very, very foolish. It’s NOT the flu and it has significantly different characteristics.
Where are you seeing hysteria? At least on the common threads I don’t see a lot of doom and gloom. I see exchange of information. Most of it is pretty good.
I actually see more people coming on and being ignorant and the basic flu. (Not YOU DB) but others.
I believe there is a lot of tone insertion into the reading of some posts.