[DoughtyOne]

On the 27th of January there were 65 2019 nCoV cases outside of China.

After six days of people leaving China by airliner, there are now 183 cases outside of China. That number is sure to grow. Grow or not, is this a virus that is going to take massive portions of the populace with it when it leaves? Not likely.

One person has died of 2019 nCoV outside of China, creating a mortality rate of 00.546%, out of that body of people.

I am not convinced this is a pandemic level event because it’s just not that lethal. On the 28th, the mortality rate was 2.179%. Since that time the mortality rate has been drifting lower. Today it is 2.084%.

The percentage of people who have recovered is very low, but that percentage is beginning to increase. On the 28th it was 1.816%. Today it is 2.798%.

The number of those recovering was lower than the mortality rate for a while. Now the number of those recovering has eclipsed the mortality rate. Oh yes, how many have died so far? As of this evening that number is 362. How many have recovered. As of this evening that number is 486.

In the last 24 hours we have seen the numbers of recovering people increase dramatically. The number of people who have gotten well increased by 42.94% today.

On the 28th, the number of people who had died was 132. The people who had gotten well was 110. That compares to the 362/486 above. Recovering people are now represented by the bigger number between the mortality figure and the recovery figure. That’s great.

The cases have now been around for six days. It appears the disease is starting to reach the end of it’s course now that time has passed. There is a strong likelihood that in the next few days we will see some pretty decent growth in the numbers of recovering people, but please realize I cannot say that with certainty. We’ll see.

Still, the data seems to be trending in that direction.

I believe the international medical community has been working together more than was previously thought. A big deal was made of the fact China didn’t want foreign medical professionals sent in, but from some medical papers I have read, there has been communications out of China addressing certain aspects of the disease, treatments, and the like.

Inside the U. S. we have seen some success with a new anti-viral.

Folks, the numbers of cases will grow. It is very unlikely we will see the 2019 nCoV devastate our populace or the populace of other nations.

17362 cases, with 362 deaths? I will be surprised if this disease kills more than 1% of the people who contract it outside of China. Certainly inside the United States, that will likely be the outcome.

The U. S. found one therapy that cause a patient to be infection free at around 24-48 hours.

There was an Asian nation reporting a case like that, with a different therapy than the one our people used. The patient was reported to have been asymptomatic with 24 hours there.

I think this is going to be manageable.

I’m not an expert in this field. I can look at numbers and make some educated guesses. I just don’t see the mortality rate that is going to allow this disease to come anywhere close to being as lethal as the season flu cases we have faced in this nation each year for decades.

[familyop]

"There is a strong likelihood that in the next few days we will see some pretty decent growth in the numbers of recovering people, but please realize I cannot say that with certainty."

Immediately after a few public comments a couple of days ago about the death rate being higher than the recovery rate, the recovery rate rose quickly and surpassed the death rate.

Those numbers from the Chinese government, by the way, indicate people who were tested and treated--a very small portion of the infected in China. According to many Chinese people and foreign nationals there, most people couldn't even get tested. Testing was required before diagnosis and treatment. Those who die outside of hospitals are eventually picked up and cremated without being included in statistics.

About all that we really have to go on other than statements from various and diverse individuals in China is the set of actions by the governments of nations and levels of concern indicated by those actions. Big investors and global companies around the world are terrified more than anything of losing money today. They sponsor the media and contribute to the politicians.

[Pelham]

“I am not convinced this is a pandemic level event because it’s just not that lethal.”

Diseases are getting listed as pandemic by how fast they become global. A high mortality rate isn’t always part of it. It’s more about how infectious it is.

2019-nCoV is spreading globally at a very fast rate so WHO and CDC are calling it a pandemic.

Their preferred rule is to “get ugly early” and treat a fast moving disease as dangerous. Because if you guess wrong the other way you have no chance of stopping it.

[tatown]

Another point, always glossed over by gloom and doomers, is that the CFR right now is based almost solely on hospitalized patients. For perspective, the CFR for influenza when only looking at hospitalized influenza patients is 8% - 15%. There are likely tens if not hundreds of thousands mild nCoV cases...leaving the true CFR at a fraction of what the media (and many on here) keep hyping.