Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally

Science Mag ^ | Jan. 26, 2020

[nuconvert]

The paper,(Lancet ) written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.

(excerpt)

Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.

(excerpt)

Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at the Scripps Research Institute who has analyzed sequences of 2019-nCoV to try to clarify its origin, says the 1 December timing of the first confirmed case was “an interesting tidbit” in The Lancet paper. “The scenario of somebody being infected outside the market and then later bringing it to the market is one of the three scenarios we have considered that is still consistent with the data,” he says. “It’s entirely plausible given our current data and knowledge.” The other two scenarios are that the origin was a group of infected animals or a single animal that came into that marketplace.

Andersen posted his analysis of 27 available genomes of 2019-nCoV on 25 January on a virology research website. It suggests they had a “most recent common ancestor”—meaning a common source—as early as 1 October 2019.

[calenel]

“While I understand your point, these same agencies are looking for government dollars any way they can get them.”

Pretty much on target, especially, for example, on the topic of AGW.

“For that reason the information is worthless, and serves to discredit other reasoned reports.”

You seem to dismiss anything that uses certain “code words” - may, could, might, should... - out of hand, though, and I am attempting to caution you against that, because those “other reasoned reports” will appropriately use exactly those same “code words” and you are encouraging people to dismiss them on that basis rather than on the merits.

I fully recognize that we have our fair share of pearl clutchers here, but the best approach would be to rely on the people with appropriate expertise here on FR. Surely we have people with medical training who can say what’s BS and what’s legit. Maybe they can try and filter out some of the noise for us, rather than have a bunch of people calling this the end of the world and another bunch saying it’s all a big nothing-burger.

[motor_racer]

If you were trying to develop tactics for using bioweapons, you would want to release something less deadly, but deadly enough to expose the defenses of your opponents.

The less-deadly exposure would also serve to reduce the panic that might occur in future bioweapons attacks, rendering them more effective due to lowered defenses.

[wtd]

FTA:

“Now It seems clear that [the] seafood market is not the only origin of the virus,” he wrote. “But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now.” Lucey notes that the discovery of the coronavirus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome, a sometimes fatal disease that occurs sporadically, came from a patient in Saudi Arabia in June 2012, although to an earlier hospital outbreak of unexplained pneumonia in Jordan in April 2012. Stored samples from two people who died in Jordan confirmed they had been infected with the virus. Retrospective analyses of blood samples in China from people and animals—including vendors from other animal markets—may reveal a clear picture of where the 2019-nCoV originated, he suggests. “There might be a clear signal among the noise,” he says.

• ScienceMag.org "Wuhan seafood market may not be source of novel virus spreading globally"

  *****

  Also note:

  In March 2019, in mysterious event a shipment of exceptionally virulent viruses from Canada’s NML ended up in China. The event caused a major scandal with Bio-warfare experts questioning why Canada was sending lethal viruses to China. #CoronaVirusCanada

• https://twitter.com/GreatGameIndia/status/1221785595078299649

• Update on newest bio-threat out of China via VladTepesblog:

  Also it might be a good time to point out the bio-research facility in Varennes Quebec that according to its staff photo, was ALL religious muslims except for a couple of people, and one or two of which is in jail for planning to attack trains and other targets in Canada and the US in various ways.

  Speaking of which, keep a close eye on the train derailment story out of Toronto yesterday as well. There are sources that suggest this was not an accident.

  The bearded guy, second from the right is I believe, Chiheb Esseghaier

  

  UPDATE:

  There is some discussion about this photo. A version has been sent in that is not cropped, and shows this as taken under a doorway where it is written:

  

  Institut National de la recherche scientifique

  The difficulty is that the photo immediately below may not be an accurate representation of the staff. But it was pulled from the company website at the time the initial arrest was made, and the company sent in an email demanding it be pulled as they owned the CR on the photo. Which at least suggests that it was indeed the company webpage header as we saw it at the time. I have the whole page backed up on a separate drive in case it matters

[nuconvert]

Lol.

[DoughtyOne]

I urge people to be prepared for the worst, and try to sit back and wait for the real news to come out.

Some agency running a model predicting a 15% mortality rate up front, that turns out to be a 2.?% mortality rate in the end, does destroy credibility.

Further, anyone providing reasoned information in the ball park that will be sustained, is then referred to as having their head in the sand.

Some of these people running these models, are either mathematicians, a lab, or the medical community. What medical person can make any more sense of that than you and I?

Urging a go slow approach is reasoned.

[Keyhopper]

Wu flu?

[independentmind]

Same for 2 of the 3 in Virginia.

[nuconvert]

uh huh.
You decide which is a better source on the subject.

[BenLurkin]

What....?

That be real.

Not even the effing Canadians would be that puckish as to set Muslims up with the means to produce biological weapons unimpeded.

[nuconvert]

It’s early yet. You have to go with the most educated, reliable sources and hope they get it right.

[calenel]

Are we talking about this article or some other one?

[wtd]

Terrifyingly plausible.

• https://twitter.com/diana_west_/status/1221856022639325184

  

  https://twitter.com/GreatGameIndia/status/1221804058132000768

  

[ncalburt]

That makes sense .
Sloppy and dangerous handling by Chinese spies .
And they are still spying away here and elsewhere.
Open border globalism is so grand .
Just look at the star war bar scene in those photos.
I bet the Chinese were the only ones spying there .

[Mr. Blond]

It couldn’t be the Level 4 Biolab in the same city, could it?

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[a fool in paradise]

I didn’t know that bats were seafood.

[Vermont Lt]

If you hold them under water long enough.....

[nuconvert]

I guess its more of a surf & turf & cave market. They sold live animals too.

[a fool in paradise]

That was supposed to be bait for really large fish.

[21twelve]

I’ve heard were they call the ones where they sell all the weird live animals are called “wet” markets (not sure why). And then some people interpreted that as “seafood” markets.