[oldasrocks]

My wife is Taiwanese and said the translation is DEAD not infected.

90,000 DEAD

[Zhang Fei]

[My wife is Taiwanese and said the translation is DEAD not infected.
90,000 DEAD]

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This number is mind-boggling, but so is the idea of shutting down as much as 5% of China’s economy behind a quarantine. I don’t know what to believe. Fact is the Chinese tourist in France thing was thought to be a hoax, but was confirmed by China’s Foreign Ministry. Assuming the lady who made this video is in China, she is taking a grave risk sending it out, given that the party considers damaging information to be state secrets, and the most damaging leaks to be capital crimes. She might be wrong about the number, but she is likely sincere in her belief that the death toll in th city is 90,000 to date.

[21twelve]

I ran the numbers using beginning with 41 infected people, and each one of them able to infect 3 other people. At day 12 it came to 44 million people infected. That seems really high, so I either did the math wrong or made some wrong assumptions. For example, not everyone comes in contact with a bunch of different people every day.

But - 90,000 dead out of 44 million is a mortality rate of 0.2%. Last years mortality rate of flu in the USA was estimated at 0.3% - with 90,000 dead from the flu. Although the first thing I thought when I heard the Asian gal talking about 90,000 - “Hmm - I wonder if they just pulled that number out of wikipedia?”

[familyop]

Tell your wife thank you very much! We’ll be cool and prepare as best we can, taking the usual minor precautions for now (wash hands, don’t touch face, avoid close contact, etc.).