China's coronavirus outbreak looks worse than the Chicoms are admitting

American Thinker ^ | 01/24/2020 | Monica Showalter

[Paul R.]

Have you ever watched the Babylon 5 episode "Confessions and Lamentations"? The MedSci might be a little weak in spots (why the heck would Delenn and Lennier go into the quarantine zone to minister to the afflicted without ANY sort of futuristic breathing protection?!), but, the writer really nailed the sense and reality of so many people reacting irrationally, creating scapegoats, etc. All these are distractions to solving the problem & reducing it's likelihood in the future.

At the end, the Dr. who comes up with the cure just shakes his head and walks off.

Nature comes up with nasty bugs all on its own.

Yup.

Especially when Man gives Nature a great environment to work in. Good explanation here: (not for you, it's for the ill-informed, knee-knockers, closet racists and knee-jerkers on this forum)

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3810083/posts?page=11#11

[Ozymandias Ghost]

“Or a deliberate ploy by the Chinese to kill off some of their excess population?”
_______________

Don’t think so; this virus will do much more damage to their economy than any possible benefits of what you propose ...not that the Chicoms would shed any tears over killing off some of their own people.

[Paul R.]

We have NO idea where the mutation that created this virus originally came from. Wuhan is a MAJOR transportation hub. The actual mutation could have occurred on a farm in the countryside, with a good chance of the newly minted virus being transported to Wuhan. Or it could be from animals being raised in a Wuhan resident’s backyard and slaughtered in iffy environments — VERY VERY common in Asia. We just don’t know, and may never really know precisely.

Good explanation here:

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3810083/posts?page=11#11

(CC’ing Mariner so he / she knows I posted this link - you may have “incoming”, but I think it’s important for people to know how easily Nature can generate new diseases, esp. given an ideal environment.)

[Paul R.]

remaining hearty on cold surfaces for a few days

That part I did not know. Can you post a link? (I'm not challenging that - am just curious.)

Damn...

[Mariner]

“remaining hearty on cold surfaces for a few days”

steve86 edified me. Said it was from CDC.

[grey_whiskers]

That’d take close to 10% fatality rate with 100% of population infected.
Unless you’re counting indirect deaths from societal breakdown?

[Paul R.]

The reality is that every major country, and some lesser ones, likely have some sort of bioweapons research program going on. And, even if it is only defensive in intent, you have to have something for the antidotes to be tested on.

However, if I wanted to do “secret” or outlawed work, I certainly would not do it in a very well known facility in a populous area. (Even the idea of “The Purloined Letter” only goes so far!) So, the notion that this disease came from a bioweapons lab in Wuhan is not impossible, but it is MUCH more unlikely than Nature’s own propensity for cranking up dangerous new variants of existing pathogens. (What, are we going to blame with no evidence the next flu strain that kills 10’s of thousands of people on a bioweapons lab, too?)

At any rate, I apologize for those of my countrymen/women who speak (write) out of fear and ignorance to the point of irrationality, racism, foolishness, and so on. Sometimes it is their own doing, but very often they are being used. It is much the same in any country, right?

[Ozymandias Ghost]

“We have NO idea where the mutation that created this virus originally came from.”
______________________

Point taken; and if the epicenter of the outbreak had occurred anywhere other than the single city in China where they have recently constructed their only Level 4 biosafety lab I would agree w/you. That lab was constructed in response to the SARS virus outbreak and is heavily involved w/research that involves various Corona viruses and particularly animal to human transmission. These type facilities are classified as “dual use;” so, it is well known they can be used for manufacturing bioweapons.

I’m not saying your explanation is incorrect; however, to me the odds favor the bio lab.

[Black Agnes]

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Click on Hubei and get:

Confirmed Cases: Hubei
Province/State Hubei
Country/Region Mainland China
Last Update 1/24/2020 12pm
Lat 30.98
Long 112.27
Confirmed 549
Suspected
Recovered 31
Deaths 24
ConfnSusp 549

The ‘recovered’ vs ‘deaths’ isn’t very encouraging.

[Black Agnes]

IMHO the chicoms know it’s from the lab.

That’s why they’re freaking out.

[Paul R.]

Ok - I can’t find it there, but it might be on an older page, etc. I don’t have time to search the entire site, but, if 2019-nCoV can hang out on cold surfaces for a few days, the CDC should be clear and upfront about that.

[Black Agnes]

At this point I’d just assume that.

There’s ample video of the chicoms sanitizing train stations, airplanes and residential streets.

[Paul R.]

I look at it the other way - that Lab is unlikely to be involved in bioweapons research (see another of my posts above), and even if it was, there’d be even MORE internal containment precautions in the bioweapons section. The last thing the Chinese gov’t would want is a scenario that damages their economy — and that’s exactly where it looks like this is heading.

That fear also explains the seemingly drastic (but may be too late) containment actions: Quarantining several cities is an economic blow, but nothing like the damage if this virus rampages throughout the country.

I’m not saying a lab sourced outbreak is “impossible”, just “unlikely”.

Now, compare that to the immediate region, where you have not just thousands, but probably hundreds of thousands of nice incubators of all sizes (large operations down to backyard livestock slaughtering), with little or no rules, almost no inspections, and Wuhan is a major transportation hub... I’ll post this yet again:

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3810083/posts?page=11#11

There are very good reasons why disease outbreaks emanate from China so frequently, especially now that they’ve built a tremendous transportation system.

[Pete from Shawnee Mission]

Johnston atoll might be a good spot. Previously used for bio research!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnston_Atoll

[Paul R.]

Interesting link here, as 2019-nCoV is almost like an extra nasty cold virus:

http://jamaicahospital.org/newsletter/how-long-can-viruses-live-outside-the-body/

Note that the common cold virus can survive on an indoor surface for a week, but capability of infection is low after 24 hours.

However... The article also notes that viruses tend to live longer on cool surfaces, so further retention of significant communicability in cool conditions might not be unusual at all.

[Paul R.]

No, the ChiComs are freaking out because this looks like it is going to be a kick in the teeth to their economy, plus there is the human angle for some. The Chinese in general still greatly respect their elderly - and that’s who’ll likely be hit worst.

Also... IF 2019-nCoV was from that lab, then that lab would have heads up info. on the pathogen, a vaccine, and so on. Their reaction says they DON’T have that.

[Ozymandias Ghost]

I see your point and you may be correct. We're certainly in agreement as to the adverse economic impact this event will have on China. That said,, you might want to read this excerpt from the Feb 2017 issue of Nature regarding the facility at Wuhan. (Entire article is linked below):

“But worries surround the (Wuhan) lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. ‘Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important,’ he says.”

https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

[Paul R.]

Hmm... It seems that a good guide / comparison would be those SARS breakouts from facilities in Beijing. IF anyone has info. on what transpired thereafter.

However, the Wuhan lab is both newer and higher level, and, that same article points out the steps taken to overcome the potential problems stated in your excerpt. (Reading further, that Ebright fellow doesn’t seem to want any more labs anywhere, which is just “nuts”.)

That doesn’t eliminate the lab a source - I just think it’s less likely than the biological “soup” of the region.

The biggest problem I have is that we get some people talking like this instance is some sort of escaped bioweapon on the rampage, and panicking themselves or others. (If this is a bioweapon, it is a damn poor one.)

[webheart]

Just another sickness scare, one after another like clockwork every year. Ebola, SARS, bird flu, swine flu, shingles, MRSA, there have been many more than I can remember. Just wash your hands frequently, don’t use public transportation and don’t hang around where there are sick people. 2 months from now there will be hardly a mention of it other than the disappointment that 65 million people didn’t die.

[Ozymandias Ghost]

Wherever it came from, I think we can agree it is getting a lot of “hype” right now and a lot of the posting on it seems to be slanted towards the “worst possible case.” The virus would certainly be a lousy bioweapon for any major world power to unleash; as it is likely to do a lot of economic damage to them. That said, if it was a rogue country like North Korea or Iran; perhaps it would take some of the current “heat” off them (assuming plausible deniability).

It certainly deserves our attention; however, I think “feeding” the current panic/hyperbole surrounding it is unwise; at least until we have more hard facts and enlightened professional analysis. For that reason, I'm going to stand down for the time being. I do appreciate your point of view and polite discussion. Thx!